Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center 2004 Draft Workplan Prepared by:

1. Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center 2004 Draft Workplan Prepared by: Gail Tonnesen, University of California Riverside Ralph Morris, ENVIRON Corporation Zac Adelman, University of North Carolina Tom Moore, WRAP Work Plan Revision: 1/15/2004

2. Background • The Air Quality Modeling Forum has two major areas of activity planned for 2004: • The Regional Modeling Center (RMC) will continue to operate and will implement many of the tools and improvements developed in 2003. • The RMC will use the same team of contractors (UCR, ENVIRON, CEP) that have been used for the past two years • The final work plan will be amended into the existing RMC contract. • The second major area of activity is to initiate modeling for Class I areas in Alaska.

3.  2003 RMC Accomplishments • Completed §309 modeling for regional haze plans due December 2003 • Obtained and processed ambient gas and PM data from most major monitoring networks & improved and extended model evaluation tools. • Developed and tested source apportionment code in CMAQ. • Began modeling of Meteorology, Emissions and Visibility for calendar year 2002 to support Section 308.

4. Description Deliverables Date Budget Task 2003-3: 2002 MM5 model Evaluation 1.Final Modeling Protocol 2.MM5 36 km 2002 Evaluation 1/31/04 2/15/04 $32,329 Task 2003-2: 2002 Interim Emissions Inventory 1. Completed 2002 36 km EI 2. Emissions QA Report 2/15/04 $38,430 Task 2003-3: CMAQ Model Performance Evaluation for summer/winter 2002 1. CMAQ evaluation for summer & winter 2002 2/15/04 Task 2003-5: Model Evaluation 1. Documentation of software 2. Demonstration of SA tool 2/15/04 1/28/04 $28,485 Task 2003-1: 2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP region. 1. NH3 EI data sets 2. Final Report 2/15/04 2/15/04 $29,058 2003 Work Plan Tasks to Be Completed in Early 2004 with 2003 Funding.

5. Major Elements in the 2004 RMC Work Plan • Project Administration • MM5 Modeling for 2002 • 2002 Base Emission Inventory • CMAQ Evaluation • Source Apportionment • Natural Background Analysis • Comparison of Alternate Models • Fugitive Dust Model • Model Performance Software • Fire Sensitivity • Alaska Modeling • Training

6. Deliverables Date Budget 1. QA Plan 2. Biweekly Conference MF Calland Monthly progress 3. Monthly Progress Report 4. Periodic Website Updates 5. MM5, Emissions and CMAQ data files 2/28/04 9% Task 1: Project Administration Description: Website and listserv support, technical reports, project tracking and coordination with modeling efforts supported by other RPOs

7. Task 1: Project Administration (cont.) • Glen Kaukola (UCR) • System administration • Web Page Maintenance • Computer Budget • For 2004: $28,800 • RMC indicates that they will need to do a major upgrade in 2005

8. Deliverables Date Budget 1. MM5 Modeling Protocol 2.Complete base case MM5 evaluation for 36 km domain 3.Completed base case MM5 evaluation for 12 km domain 4.Comparison with VISTAS MM5 modeling for 2002 5.Sensitivity analysis using various PBL schemes, LSM modules, FDDA nudging strength 6. Independent Peer Review 7.Diagnose any remaining performance problems 1/25/04 1/31/04 4/30/04 4/30/04  As needed. 8/31/04 10/31/04 6% Task 2: MM5 Modeling for 2002 Purpose: Test, improve, quality control, obtain external peer review, and finalize 36km and 12km MM5 simulations for eventual use in CMAQ

9. Task 2: MM5 Modeling for 2002 • High resolution 12 km nested grid for the WRAP region, shown in blue, to be used in the WRAP 2002 modeling. Domain size is 207 columns by 186 rows.

10. Deliverables Date Budget 1. Base 36km 2002 Winter/Summer emissions 2. Base 36 km 2002 annual emissions with extended coverage of non-US sources, natural sources, and offshore emissions sources 3. Iterative/Periodic Major updates to 2002 EI 4. Base 12 km 2002 emissions 5. Plume-in-Grid (APT) Emissions inventory 6. Six emissions sensitivity cases (changes in SOx, NOx etc) 1/05/04 2/28/04 (TBD) 6/30/04 7/31/04 15% Task 3: 2002 Base Emission Inventory • Purpose: Develop and QA 2002 interim emissions inventory, and major updates throughout 2004. Prepare emissions sensitivity cases for model testing and evaluation.

11. Deliverables Date Budget 1. Preliminary Summer/Winter 2002 modeling, 2. Preliminary Annual 2002 modeling 3. Periodic revised annual modeling scenarios, depending on timing and availability of emissions updates and plans for sensitivity runs. 4. Annual Model simulation for 12 km WRAP domain 5. 10 additional annual model sensitivity simulations (with changes in emissions or science configuration for diagnostic evaluation). 1/29/04 3/31/04 (TBD) 7/31/04 12/31/04 14% Task 4: CMAQ Evaluation Purpose: 2002 base year air quality modeling with CMA

12. Deliverables Date Budget 1. Source apportionment report using emissions/met data available 4/30. 6/30/02 7% Task 5: Source Apportionment Purpose: Preparation and reporting of geographic source apportionment results based on modeling the “Interim 2002” emissions inventory

13. Deliverables Date Budget 1. Natural Emissions EI 2. CMAQ simulation with natural EI 3. Report describing results 7/31/03 8/31/03 10/31/03 2% Task 6: Natural Background Analysis • Purpose: Further analysis of model performance in regard to the contribution of natural emissions to visibility impairment

14. Deliverables Date Budget 1 1.Evaluation of CMAQ 2004 release 2. Emissions for alternate model .3. Base case simulation and performance evaluation of one alternative model 3.4. Three emission sensitivity simulations (50% NH3, 50% SOx, and 50% NOx) 4.5. Report on alternate model & comparison to CMAQ 7/31/04  8/31/04  9/30/03 10/31/04 12/31/04 2% Task 7: Comparison of Alternate Models Purpose: Comparisons of 2002 CMAQ to an alternate model (either REMSAD, CAMx, CMAQ-AIM or CMAQ-MADRID). Alternate model to be selected pending other work funded by other agencies.

15. Task 8: Fugitive Dust Model • Optional Task pending publication of WRAP dust report. • Task Deliverables: • Implement alternative dust algorithm. • Prepare CMAQ emissions inventory • Complete CMAQ simulations and performance evaluation

16. Deliverables Date Budget 1. Revised version of Model Eval Package 2. Vis tools for source apportionment 3. GUI for using model evaluation tools and vis tools. 4. Documentation model software. 12/31/04 6/30/04 12/31/04 12/31/04 2% Task 9: Model Performance Software Purpose: Continued Improvement to model evaluation software: working versions of the model evaluation package are available now. Updates will include implementation of PAMS and PM super site data, and periodic updates to the software as needed.

17. Deliverables Date Budget 1. Report on analysis of existing results. 2. Report results of additional model runs 3/31/04 7/31/04 5% Task 10: Fire Sensitivity Purpose: The RMC will conduct fire emissions sensitivity analyses funded by the Fire Emissions Joint Forum

18. Task 10: Fire Sensitivity (cont.) Proposed sensitivity runs • Quantify / characterize the contribution to extinction due to each type of fire source (agricultural burning, prescribed burning, and wildfire) • Quantify / characterize the effect of Optimal Smoke Management (OSM) on extinction levels. • Quantify / Characterize the effect on extinction due to the changes in spatial distribution between the revised 2018 Base Agricultural Burning inventory and the original 2018 Base Agricultural Burning. • Quantify / characterize the effects of the current (revised) 2018 OSM and the original 2018 OSM (with extra 450 tons PM2.5) for prescribed fire. • Quantify / characterize the contribution to extinction due to smaller fire events (between 10 acres and 100 acres).

19. Task 10: Fire Sensitivity (cont.) Proposed sensitivity runs (cont) 6. Quantify / characterize the effect on extinction levels of the diurnal fire emission profiles provided to the RMC by the FEJF and used to distribute daily emissions to each hour of the day. 7. Quantify / characterize the effect on extinction levels of physical plume characteristics provided for each fire event • Spatial extent of the sensitivity runs • Temporal extent of the sensitivity runs.

20. Task 10: Fire Sensitivity (cont.) The approximate level of effort for each for each sensitivity case includes the following: • Processing and quality assurance of emissions inventories: 24 hours for a senior staff to design and QA the emissions change, and 32 hours for a programmer. • Completing a CMAQ simulation, QA and model performance metrics: 4 hours for a senior staff and 24 hours for a junior programmer. • Analysis and reporting of the model sensitivity results: 20 hours senior staff. • For the tasks proposed above this would include 7 new model simulations and additional analysis of 3 previously completed model simulations. The total effort would be approximately 168 hours for a senior staff to design and supervise the emissions processing; 240 hours for senior staff to complete the model evaluation and reporting, and 392 hours for junior programmers. Also included is 40 hours for Ralph Morris to participate in evaluation of results.

21. Task 11: Alaska Modeling Purpose: To test and evaluate air quality modeling techniques in Alaska and develop the modeling approaches necessary for Alaska to perform the technical analysis needed to support their requirements for the Regional Haze Rule (RHR). Overall Approach: • Develop Methods for MM5 Meteorological Modeling in Alaska • Annual MM5 Modeling • Air Quality Modeling and Analysis • Review and Recommendations of Regional Haze Modeling for Alaska

22. Task 11: Alaska Modeling (cont.) • Locations of the four Class I areas in Alaska along with the two biggest Alaska cities, Anchorage and Fairbanks.

23. Task 11: Alaska Modeling (cont.) MM5 45 km (D01), 15 km (D02) and 5 km (D03 and D04) grid configuration for real-time forecasting being conducted by UAF.

24. Deliverables Date Budget ·Episode selection report that describes rationale for selecting the modeling episodes. ·Preliminary MM5 modeling and model configuration report ·Draft Final and Final Report on the annual MM5 modeling and model performance evaluation. ·Annual MM5 output files ·Preliminary trajectory and Lagrangian modeling and model configuration report using the preliminary episodic MM5 modeling results; ·Draft Final and Final trajectory and Lagrangian modeling report using the annual MM5 data ·Modeling review and recommendations report 3/31/04 6/30/04 7/31/04 7/31/04 10/31/04 12/31/04 23% Task 11: Alaska Modeling (cont.)

25. Task 12: Training • Proposed Training Courses • Basic SMOKE/CMAQ Training • To be done at the CMAS center • Manager Level Training • Tribal Training • Hands-on Support • Training on Source Apportionment/Sensitivity • Training will be developed on an as need/as requested basis

26. Task Description Possible Funding Sources 1. Source Apportionment Further improvement of source apportionment techniques in the emissions and air quality models EPA? 2. Global Models for Boundary Conditions Integration of global-scale estimates of model domain boundary conditions into WRAP modeling analyses Vistas 3. De Minimus Fire Modeling 9. Fugitive Dust Testing and further improvements to the windblown dust emissions Other High Priority Tasks, Pending Availability of Funding.

27. Task Description Deliverables L1 Review availability of Aircraft emissions NASA funded effort at UNC/CEP is currently underway –review and include aircraft emissions in WRAP modeling. L2 Misc. improvements to species allocation profiles in SMOKE Low Priority Task

28. Tasks Supported by WRAP Forums Supported by other RPOs Global Models for Boundary Conditions VISTAS Fire Sensitivity Joint Fire Emissions Forum De minimums fire modeling Joint Fire Emissions Forum Fugitive Dust Testing and further improvements to the windblown dust emissions modeling methodology Tasks of Multiple Interest to Other Forums and RPOs

29. Summary of 2004 Budget Task Description Percent Effort 1 Project Admin 9% 2 MM5 6% 3 Emissions 15% 4 CMAQ 14% 5 Source Appt 7% 6 Natural Haze 2% 7 Alternate Model 2% 9 Fugitive Dust 0% 10 Eval Software 2% 11 Fire Sensitivity 5% 12 Alaska Model 23% 13 Training 10% Task Total 95% Supplies/Shipping/Phone Misc 0% Travel 1% Equipment 3%