May 9, 2007

1. PLANNING APPLICATIONS 2007 Custom Applications for Calculating Transit Operating Statistics from Travel Demand Forecasting Output: The Denver RTD OpStats 2.0 Transit Operating Statistics Model May 9, 2007 Herbert Higginbotham Connetics Transportation Group

2. Background • Pre-2001: RTD’s operating statistics for long-range planning are calculated by manually entering route-by-route data into a spreadsheet • 2001: First OpStats model produces bus statistics from MinUTP travel demand model output • 2004: RTD initiates the FasTracks program, amplifying the need to quickly produce bus and rail statistics for alternatives analysis • 2006: Model is redesigned as RTD OpStats 2.0; updated to read TransCAD travel demand model output and adding a rail statistics module TRB Planning Applications 2007

3. Typical Alternatives Analysis Operating Assumptions Period Lengths, Recovery Factors, Annualization Factors, etc. Travel Demand Model Capital and O&M Cost Models Manually–Generated Spreadsheet Computations Route Headways, Times & Distances Systemwide Vehicles, Hours, and Miles Automation Gap • Replicating calibrated calculations for several alternatives can take hours and days TRB Planning Applications 2007

4. The Automation Gap • Repeatable tasks like data preparation and summation occupy precious time and introduce human error • Statistics formulas tend to embed assumptions, leaving them less likely to be consistent or updated across routes or alternatives • Results must be calculated by an experienced user every time, making tasks difficult to share or transfer • Calibrating or testing various operating parameters is slow and cumbersome TRB Planning Applications 2007

5. Operating Statistics Model Manually–Generated Spreadsheet Computations No Automation Gap Automation Gap Analysis with an Automated Model Operating Assumptions Period Lengths, Recovery Factors, Annualization Factors, etc. Travel Demand Model Capital and O&M Cost Models Route Headways, Times & Distances Systemwide Vehicles, Hours, and Miles • Accurate operating statistics produced in seconds allow planners more time for data analysis TRB Planning Applications 2007

6. Benefits of the OpStats 2.0 Model • Speed • Manual Run: 1-2 hours or longer • OpStats 2.0 Run: 5-8 seconds • Accuracy • Computations are built-in – no errors from miscopied formulas or unreferenced worksheets • Facilitates fast and accurate model calibration across multiple modes and vehicle types • User-Friendly • Familiar Excel interface and easy-to-use controls allow even novice users to get results quickly TRB Planning Applications 2007

7. Benefits of the OpStats 2.0 Model • Functionality • Quickly vary systemwide operating assumptions • Produces operating statistics with and without passenger demand equilibration • Stores countless alternative runs and reruns – simplifies comparison between multiple scenarios • Adaptability • Small file sizes allow sharing among many users • Open architecture allows advanced users to modify formulas and structures to meet shifting agency needs TRB Planning Applications 2007

8. Adds button to run model to the standard toolbar Opens to main Model Assumptions page Application loads in standard Excel window Opening the Model TRB Planning Applications 2007

9. Assumptions are stratified by service type (local bus, express bus, light rail, etc) and vehicle type (40’ bus, articulated bus, LRV, etc) Assigns service hours for peak, offpeak, & early/late periods, and factors for recovery and deadhead time Equilibration switch Annualization factors by service type Additional tables allow user to set dwell times, peak hour factors, seats per vehicle, vehicle loading standards, rail consist max/min, and headway adjustment rules for equilibration Model Input Assumptions TRB Planning Applications 2007

10. Pressing the Run OpStatsbutton initiates a new model run A dialog box allows the user to select the travel demand model (TDM) output file that contains the route data for the run The user is prompted to enter a project name for the new run The TDM output file is created during a post-assignment process in TransCAD. This DBF file contains the ID, mode, service type, vehicle type, headways, run times & distances, and passenger volumes for each route Running the Model TRB Planning Applications 2007

11. In less than 10 seconds, the run is completed and the user is prompted to save the results file Running the Model TRB Planning Applications 2007

12. Daily and annual bus and rail statistics are reported by service type and vehicle type in print-ready tables Other worksheets summarize bus data by time period The user can continue to adjust assumptions and toggle equilibration in the output file to observe the effects of different parameters Model Results: Summaries Some rows have been hidden to show the most pertinent data TRB Planning Applications 2007

13. With bus equilibration on, peak hour volumes are used to equilibrate headways according to user-defined rules. In certain cases, the vehicle type will be upsized to accommodate large loads Data are imported by route and period from the TDM output file Built-in custom formulas calculate bus statistics by route Separate worksheets perform bus calculations for each time period Model Results: Bus Routes Some columns have been hidden to show the most pertinent data TRB Planning Applications 2007

14. With rail equilibration on, peak hour volumes are used to calculate rail cars according to user-defined rules Data are imported by route from the TDM output file Built-in custom formulas calculate train and car statistics by route Model Results: Rail Routes Some columns have been hidden to show the most pertinent data TRB Planning Applications 2007

15. Assigns Run ID and stores run date & time, TDM output filename, and model output filename so runs can be quickly identified or recreated Records key summary statistics for each run to facilitate alternative comparison Model Run History TRB Planning Applications 2007

16. Model Calibration General procedure: • Operating assumptions replicating base year conditions are input into the model • OpStats 2.0 is executed with travel demand model output from the base year validation run • Results are compared to actual service data for the base year, adjusting period lengths and run time factors as needed Denver RTD Calibration • Results from a base year 2005 travel demand model run were processed in OpStats 2.0 and compared to 2005 actual data • Model-generated bus statistics were within 5% of actual statistics and model-generated rail statistics were within 5% to 10% of actual statistics TRB Planning Applications 2007

17. Potential Applications • FTA New and Small Starts Process • Requires detailed and accurate operating statistics and associated cost data • Alternatives Analysis, MIS, EIS • Run and compare multiple scenarios quickly • SRTP, LRTP, Operational or Financial Analyses • Generates the statistics needed to quickly cost out constrained and unconstrained plans • Transit Agency “What If” Scenario Analysis • Test the effects of potential service changes (e.g., increasing service spans, changing load standards, etc) TRB Planning Applications 2007

18. Potential Add-in Features • Stored assumptions sets • Allows user to run with one of several pre- and user-defined operating parameter sets stored in the model • Multi-operator data sets • Useful for regional or large urban studies that cover multiple agencies and/or operating environments • Alternatives comparison module • Allows user to select one model run as a baseline and several others to compare to it • Cost model integration • Model can be programmed to directly export data to a separate cost model, or can be designed as part of an all-inclusive operating statistics and cost model TRB Planning Applications 2007

19. Model Specifications • Platform: MS Excel 2000 • Is also compatible with Excel 98 and Excel 2003 • Language: MS Visual Basic 6.3 • Underlying programming language of MS Excel • System Requirements: • Windows 98, 2000, ME, XP • Minimum 500 MHz processor speed • Minimum 250 MB RAM • File Sizes: • Program file: 687 KB • Output files: 1.6 MB TRB Planning Applications 2007

20. Acknowledgements The Denver RTD OpStats 2.0 model was developed by Connetics Transportation Group in cooperation with: • The Denver Regional Transportation District (project conception, funding, review, and management) • Bill Van Meter • Dave Hollis • Lee Cryer • David Krutsinger • AECOM (TransCAD code-writing) • Manish Jain Our deepest thanks for their guidance and support TRB Planning Applications 2007