100 likes | 237 Views
Pathways to Permanent Residence: Thoughts on Transition Matters. Arthur Sweetman (arthur.sweetman@mcmaster.ca). Remarkable research. This is a great approach Very nice use of data. On substance. Employment Next slide maybe shows Good initial condition by TR PR (WP) group endures
E N D
Pathways to Permanent Residence: Thoughts on Transition Matters Arthur Sweetman (arthur.sweetman@mcmaster.ca)
Remarkable research • This is a great approach • Very nice use of data
On substance • Employment • Next slide maybe shows • Good initial condition by TR PR (WP) group endures • Convergence (BUT, slow!!) • Good to help us think about how to interpret earnings trends in light of employment trends • Sample selection • Individual & aggregate trends (composition effect)
Incidence of Employment earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP) Incidence of Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PAs Source: Slides 7 to 11 IMDB, 2011 • Incidence of employment earnings is highest for those who previously worked in • Canada as a TR, this is especially true for those who transitioned to Economic PAs • In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had an incidence of • employment earnings equal to 81%. The comparable incidence was 51% for those who transitioned without • Canadian work experience and 62% for PRs without a previous TR status. • For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had an • incidence of employment earnings equal to 92%. The comparable incidence was 79% for those who transitioned • without Canadian work experience and 70% for PRs without a previous TR status.
Earnings • Among PAs, a work permit is akin to a 3 to 5 year lead in terms of earnings • Longer for all immigrants • Although unclear how this interacts with changing composition of who is employed • Question: How much of a “head start” does the WP afford?
Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP) Average Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PA • Average employment earnings are also highest for those who previously worked in Canada • as TR and, again, higher for those who transitioned to Economic PAs • In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had average employment • earnings equal to $38,000. The comparable average was $18,100 for those who transitioned without Canadian • work experience and $20,000 for PRs without a previous TR status. • For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had • average employment earnings equal to $44,000. The comparable average was $24,000 for those who transitioned • without Canadian work experience and $26,000 for PRs without a previous TR status.
Extensions • Interesting to look back and see how many years of Canadian work experience those with a work permit who transition to permanent residency had “before zero” • How much of a head start did they actually have? • Larger question: • Does it matter when “zero” is? • When start paying taxes? When permanent? • Suspect it does, but ….
Interesting to look at “durability” of beneficial work permit effect across time and (potentially) multiple jobs • More broadly, useful to do a life-cycle cost-benefit comparing the impact on the public purse of the various categories addressed • Timing matters: e.g., CPP etc. starts when working under work permit, not when permanent residency granted (also consider OAS/GIS, etc.) • Might be some unexpected but important issues such as age-at-immigration
“Types” of Immigration Economics Research • In Canada almost all research about the economic integration of immigrants • In US, majority of research concerns the economic impact of immigration on the existing immigrant and US born populations • Other countries too • Controversial: UK House of Lords report and New Zealand Dept. of Labour report come to opposite conclusions
Concern of “impact” literature for recent Canadian policy changes, and especially TFW program • Canada’s traditional economic immigration program sought complements to the domestic workforce • As employers have more influence in immigrant selection, concern is that new immigrants may increasingly become substitutes in the labour market • Good to think about as we modify programs