Environmental Technical Working Group Meeting – IERM Discussion October 16, 2003

1. Environmental Technical Working Group Meeting – IERM DiscussionOctober 16, 2003

2. Overview • Review/Discussion for PI Conceptual Model Diagrams • Outstanding Issues Organized by Subgroup • Discussion of Habitat Modeling and Correspondence/Categorization

3. IERM Conceptual Model – Lake Ontario

4. Wetland Plant Sub-Model (LO/USL) Wetland Plant PI Measures • LO/USL Water Level Time Series • Maximum level in 2 consecutive quarter monthly periods • Average water level for growing season • % Species Composition @ Specific Elevations • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment Feed to Faunal Sub-Models Sub-Model Inputs • “Average” Wetland Topography • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment Sub-Model Outputs • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment Feed to Faunal Sub-Models • LO/USL Wetland Area • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment Wetland Plant Effects

5. Fish Sub-Model (LO/USL/LSL?) Daily input • LO/USL Water Temperature Time Series • Daily values corrected based on depth/location Fish PI Measures Habitat Variables (20-m grid) Guild-Based WSA for system (ha) Water Depth • LO/USL Water Level Time Series • Interpolated daily values Local Habitat Patch WSA (ha) Daily input Submergent Vegetation Sub-Model Inputs • Population Models (life stages: #/ha) • Northern pike • Yellow perch • Smallmouth bass • Largemouth bass Sub-Model Outputs Wetland Sub-Model Emergent Vegetation • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment Substrate Velocity Fish Effects

6. Wetland Bird Sub-Model (LO/USL) H&H Inputs Wetland Bird Effects Wetland Bird PI Measures • LO/USL Water Levels • Quarter monthly time series • Significance of Recruitment Impacts? • Various species • Nest Losses (%) (Flooding) • Various species Sub-Model Inputs Sub-Model Outputs Wetland Sub-Model • Significant Trends in Population Potential (#) • Various species • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha) • Various species • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment Diversity of Bird Assemblages (Shannon-Weaver Index)

7. Species-At-Risk Sub-Model (LO/USL) H&H Inputs Species-At-Risk PI Measures • LO/USL Water Levels • Quarter monthly time series Species-At-Risk Effects Sub-Model Outputs • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha) • Various species • Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat • Various species Sub-Model Inputs Wetland Sub-Model • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment

8. Herptile Sub-Model (LO/USL) H&H Inputs Herptile PI Measures Herptile Effects • LO/USL Water Levels • Quarter monthly time series Turtle Survival (# or %) Nest/Egg Survival (# or %) Sub-Model Outputs • Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha) • Various species Sub-Model Inputs • Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat Supply • Various species Wetland Sub-Model • Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha) • Barrier Beach • Drowned River Mouth • Protected Embayment • Unprotected Embayment

9. Muskrat Sub-Model (LO/USL) H&H Inputs Muskrat PI Measures Muskrat Effects • LO/USL Water Levels • Fall variability (?) • Winter variability (?) Sub-Model Inputs Sub-Model Outputs Muskrat House Flooding/ Stranding Potential (% loss?) Significant loss of muskrats based on threshold?

10. Dabbling Duck Sub-Model (LSL) Dabbling Duck PI Measures H&H Inputs Dabbling Duck Effects • LSL Water Levels • Quarter monthly time series Brooding Success Migration Success Significant Effects? Sub-Model Outputs Sub-Model Inputs Nest Survival (% survival) Significant Effects On Population Total Suitable Habitat Supply/Area (ha) Wetland Sub-Model Total Estimated Area of Plant Species/Classes (ha)

11. Summary of Outstanding Issues • Wetland Plants • Connecting plant community results to faunal sub-models / ca • Understanding potential extent of wetland evolution in LSL (Morin) • Fish • Streamlining population modeling approaches for LO, USL, and LSL (Minns/Morin/Farrell) • Availability of 100-year temperature time series • Refining data/approach for lakewide suitable habitat GIS-based computations • Tying in fish migration study (DeLafontaine)

12. Summary of Outstanding Issues • Wetland Birds • Reducing list of key habitat/hydrological variables to be included • Connecting nest losses (due to flooding) to significant effects on productivity • Dabbling Ducks • Importance of long-term changes in habitat • Study only includes LSL • Rationale for exclusion of dabbling duck predictions for LO and USL?

13. Summary of Outstanding Issues • Species-At-Risk • Reducing list of species to be modeled (already done for lower river) • Use of “hot spots” vs. overall impact on habitat • Muskrats • Defining direct water level impacts on flooding/ freezing, etc. • Extending to lower river model • Cattail herbivory feedback? • Herptiles • Identifying specific habitat/hydrological variables to be included

14. General IERM/SVM Logistical Issues • Merging calculations for LO and USL with LSL 2-dimensional model (Morin) • Complexity and computer run-time for: • Lower river model • GIS-based habitat calculations for LO/USL • Refining significance of effects – “meaningful” output for SVM