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Guidance on Attainment Tests for O3 / PM / Regional Haze

Guidance on Attainment Tests for O3 / PM / Regional Haze. Ellen Baldridge & Joe Tikvart Air Quality Modeling Group / EPA 2 nd Models-3 Workshop Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 October 21, 2002. Status of Modeling Guidance. Guidance for Estimating Attainment of

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Guidance on Attainment Tests for O3 / PM / Regional Haze

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  1. Guidance on Attainment Tests for O3 / PM / Regional Haze Ellen Baldridge & Joe Tikvart Air Quality Modeling Group / EPA 2nd Models-3 Workshop Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 October 21, 2002

  2. Status of Modeling Guidance • Guidance for Estimating Attainment of 8-hour Ozone NAAQS (Draft) • Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for PM2.5 and Regional Haze (Draft) • http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram Modeling Guidance -- DRAFT8HR Modeling Guidance -- DRAFT-PM

  3. Status of Modeling Guidance (continued) • Drafts extensively reviewed by Regional Offices State representatives Stakeholder groups • Ellen Baldridge – O3 • Brian Timin – PM2.5 & regional haze

  4. What is in the Modeling Guidance? • How to use modeling and other analyses – modeled attainment demonstration through relative reduction factors – screening test – weight of evidence • How to setup and apply models

  5. Modeled Attainment Demonstration– Relative Reduction Factors – • Use models to predict relative changes in concentrations – determine site specific observed design values – model current pollutant concentrations – model future pollutant concentrations – calculate RRFs as ratios of future to current – estimate future concentrations as a product of observed design values and RRFs • For PM2.5, sum across components (RRF each for SO4, NO3, OC, EC, IP, CM)

  6. Screening Test • Concentrations are predicted where there are no nearby monitors • Predicted concentrations are greater than those in vicinity of monitors • Maximum areawide design value is multiplied by RRFs for non-monitor locations to estimate design value

  7. Weight of Evidence • Supplement to attainment test • Core plus additional analyses Other air quality estimates (e.g., grid-cell hours >NAAQS) Analysis of air quality & emission trends Receptor oriented models • Results of all analyses are reviewed and weighed

  8. Modeling Systems for Ozone • Urban Airshed Models (UAM, MAQSIP, CALGRID, etc.) • CAMx (source apportionment capability) • Models3/CMAQ • Model performance/accuracy is well established

  9. Modeling Systems for PM2.5 • Models3/CMAQ – proof-of-concept applications as basis for support and guidance • REMSAD – policy analysis applications & national rules • Other regional models – PM-CAMx, URM, UAM-AERO, SAQM

  10. Other PM Modeling Approaches • Source Apportionment – PM-CAMx & CMAQ • “Hot spot” analyses – ISC, AERMOD, CALPUFF • Receptor models – CMB, UNMIX, PMF

  11. Upcoming Modeling Activities Continue model performance evaluation • Explore sulfate, nitrate, and organic issues • SMOKE w/ BEIS3, Mobile-6, improved NH3, fires, primary PM emissions • Vertical layer sensitivity modeling • Nitrate oriented sensitivities

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