The Internet’s effect on Educational Attainment

1. The Internet’s effect on Educational Attainment Geoff Blizard SIS600 11/17/2010

2. Research Question and Hypotheses • Does Internet Access have a significant effect on increases in educational attainment in a given country? • H0 = Internet Access has no significant effect on educational attainment. • H1 = Internet Access has a significant effect on educational attainment.

3. Literature Review • Alice Lo Choi Yuet Ngor “The Prospects for Using the Internet in Collaborative Design Education with China” Higher Education, Vol. 42, No. 1 (Jul., 2001), pp. 47-60 • The Internet offers drastically improved opportunities for collaboration and information sharing between both professors and students, allowing for an overall greater quality in education. • Assuming computer use and literacy continues to spread, students may theoretically one day never have to set foot in a physical classroom. • Eric Harwit, “ Spreading Telecommunications to Developing Areas in China: Telephones, the Internet and the Digital Divide” The China Quarterly, No. 180 (Dec., 2004), pp. 1010-1030 • In 2004, China had the second highest number of Internet Users. • Recent growth has excluded a large percentage of the Chinese population, creating a barrier between “Haves” and “Have-nots” • Educational and Income gaps between “Haves” and “Have-nots” also play into the Communications gap.

4. Data Sources • World Bank HDI • Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index

5. Variables • Primary Independent Variable: • Proportional Change in Internet Users from 2000 to 2007 – Interval Ratio • Control Independent Variables: • Proportional Change in GDPPC from 200 to 2007 – Interval Ratio • Proportional Change in RWB Press Freedom Index from 2002 to 2007 - Ordinal • Primary Dependent Variable: • HDI Education Index Change from 2000 to 2007 - Ordinal • Secondary Dependent Variables: • Percent change in Adult Literacy from 2000 to 2007 – Interval Ratio • Percent Change in Enrollment in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education – Interval Ratio • Index created from Enrollment Variables

6. Issues with Data • Neither RWB or the World Bank survey every country every year for their respective Indices and Datasets. Holes have been partially filled with values from years surrounding the target date. • Enrollment Data in particular (and subsequently my own Enrollment Index) suffer from larger gaps in each variable. • Countries with higher scores on the Education Index tend not to have much variation in their scores from year to year.

7. Descriptive Statistics

8. Descriptive Statistics

9. Frequency Charts

10. Secondary Frequency Charts

11. Secondary Frequency Charts

12. Correlation

13. Regression Analysis – Model 1 Independent: Proportional Change in Internet Users Dependent: Change in HDI Education Index

14. Regression Analysis – Model 1

15. Regression Analysis – Model 2 Independent: Proportional Change in Internet Users, Change in GDPPC Dependent: Change in HDI Education Index

16. Regression Analysis – Model 2

17. Regression Analysis – Model 3 Independent: Proportional Change in Internet Users, Change in GDPPC, Change in RWB Press Freedom Index Dependent: Change in HDI Education Index

18. Regression Analysis – Model 3

19. Matrix Scatterplot

20. Conclusions • Internet Access does not appear to be a valid statistic for prediction of changes in Educational Level. • GDPPC, as expected, is statistically significant, although it does not account for a large percentage of the variation in Education Index scores. • Possible improvements for this study in the future include exclusion of High Scoring Countries on the Education Index scale, to see if they are having an effect on the relationship between Independent and Dependent Variables.