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Going s ustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green?

Going s ustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green?. Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser

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Going s ustainable in the 21 st Century - how quickly will the world go green?

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  1. Going sustainable in the 21st Century - how quickly will the world go green? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Leader Western Australia Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia

  2. Adoption rate of technology • What do markets tell us about how quickly disruptive technologies will impact on our businesses? • A natural rate of turnover and retirement in commodities. • But, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’ • The transition to new technology will be more rapid where changes are favoured by: • policy measures and regulation; • consumer sentiment; • pricing advantage. • Are you ready to adopt and adapt to new paradigms? Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

  3. Roger’s diffusion curve

  4. Wake up and smell the roses • Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? • (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC • PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet • Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) • Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) • VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay • Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) • Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet • Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

  5. Technology adoption rates – US • Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

  6. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  7. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  8. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

  9. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

  10. Potential EV growth

  11. Declining price on solar

  12. Global renewables

  13. Global renewables 2014 +>

  14. Global energy – fossil and renewables

  15. Renewables and storage in Africa • Developing nations with modest domestic power needs means storage may already be economically affordable.

  16. Technology adoption rates • Marked decrease in developmental lag • Innovation/development of new products • Supply side capabilities • Market competition • Growing consumer expectations • Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace • Fleet/building/operations/CFOs • Regulation • Energy security

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