Recreation Demand Trends---An Update

1. Recreation Demand Trends---An Update Ken Cordell, Carter Betz, Gary Green, Shela Mou Forest Service SRS, UGA, and FS RMRS Athens, GA and Ft. Collins, CO My specialty is outdoor recreation trends. Linda’s specialty is climate change and its ecological effects. Neither of us are tourism specialists. The Forest Service manages the nearly 200 million acre National Forest System. Our agency also manages the largest natural resources science organization in the world. My specialty is outdoor recreation trends. Linda’s specialty is climate change and its ecological effects. Neither of us are tourism specialists. The Forest Service manages the nearly 200 million acre National Forest System. Our agency also manages the largest natural resources science organization in the world.

2. Drivers of Trends Some recently reported outdoor recreation trends---Up through 2007 Outdoor recreation generally Nature-based recreation specifically Forest recreation especially Visitation to public land With my research group in Athens Georgia, we have been studying recent trends in outdoor recreation, especially outdoor recreation that is connected to nature. Linda Joyce and her research group has been studying climate change and modelling its effects on natural resources and ecosystems.With my research group in Athens Georgia, we have been studying recent trends in outdoor recreation, especially outdoor recreation that is connected to nature. Linda Joyce and her research group has been studying climate change and modelling its effects on natural resources and ecosystems.

3. What got us started looking at current trends-- The Pergams/Zaradic article February, 2008 Postulated that NP visits is a good proxy for visiting nature in general “If we are also seeing declines in the majority of other nature-related activities, it becomes quite likely that we are seeing a fundamental shift away from people’s interest in nature.” “…as today’s adult role models spend less time in nature, this generation of children is also likely to follow suit. They argue (with this I agree) that less nature experience may be associated with less support for conservation The authors report declines in NP, SP, NF and BLM visits (PER CAPITA, Not Total) The research question was: “Is there a general and fundamental shift away from people’s participation in nature-based recreation and interest in nature?”

4. One of the unique things the Forest Service does is the Renewable Resources Planning Act Assessment of Forest and Range lands. This Assessment is repeated every 10 years with interim 5 year updates. The most recent Update for 2005 was published in the spring of 2007 and can be found at the site address at the bottom of the slide.One of the unique things the Forest Service does is the Renewable Resources Planning Act Assessment of Forest and Range lands. This Assessment is repeated every 10 years with interim 5 year updates. The most recent Update for 2005 was published in the spring of 2007 and can be found at the site address at the bottom of the slide.

5. Our’s and Linda Joyce’s research groups are members of the RPA Assessment national team. Linda works with various other agencies and with the IPCC to obtain the most up-to-date climate data and change projections. Our RPA group models the effects of climate change, population growth and redistribution over the landscape, and land development on forest and rangelands. Our research group in Athens GA focuses on demographic trends and outdoor recreation. Our primary research tool is the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment. The NSRE started in 1960. It operates almost continuously surveying Americans all across the country---urban, rural, all. A recent addition is the National Kids Survey, which is embedded within the NSRE. In that Kids are the future of outdoor recreation, and thus of outdoor recreation-based tourism, I will cover some data about American youth in my presentation. About ½ of the states use the NSRE as their demand data base in conducting their Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plans.Our’s and Linda Joyce’s research groups are members of the RPA Assessment national team. Linda works with various other agencies and with the IPCC to obtain the most up-to-date climate data and change projections. Our RPA group models the effects of climate change, population growth and redistribution over the landscape, and land development on forest and rangelands. Our research group in Athens GA focuses on demographic trends and outdoor recreation. Our primary research tool is the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment. The NSRE started in 1960. It operates almost continuously surveying Americans all across the country---urban, rural, all. A recent addition is the National Kids Survey, which is embedded within the NSRE. In that Kids are the future of outdoor recreation, and thus of outdoor recreation-based tourism, I will cover some data about American youth in my presentation. About ½ of the states use the NSRE as their demand data base in conducting their Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plans.

6. THEN In 1960, the U.S. population reached about 180 million. Along with increasing affluence, population growth boosted demand for outdoor recreation. Family vacations and summer trips quickly became a significant part of the typical American’s calendar. As reported by ORRRC, the most popular summertime outdoor recreation activities in 1960 were, in order, driving for pleasure, swimming, walking, playing outdoor games or sports Also sightseeing, picnicking, fishing, bicycling, attending outdoor sports events, boating, nature walks, and hunting And camping, horseback riding, water skiing, hiking, and attending concerts or other outdoor events. The Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission (ORRRC) developed the first National Recreation Survey and conducted survey in the summer of 1960. Eventually, this survey ended up being managed by the U. S. Forest Service and was renamed the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE). Much has changed since 1960 in the way Americans recreate and in the way we travel and vacation.The Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission (ORRRC) developed the first National Recreation Survey and conducted survey in the summer of 1960. Eventually, this survey ended up being managed by the U. S. Forest Service and was renamed the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE). Much has changed since 1960 in the way Americans recreate and in the way we travel and vacation.

7. By 2000, the population had risen to around 281 million (growing over 3 million per year) Viewing and photographing birds had become the fastest-growing activity in the country. Closely following birding were day hiking and backpacking, growing 193 and 182 percent in participants, respectively, in less than twenty years. Snowmobiling increased 125 percent. Next were attending outdoor concerts, plays, and other events; walking for pleasure; camping in developed sites; canoeing or kayaking; downhill skiing; and swimming in natural waters (i.e., streams, lakes, and oceans). The most noticeable change by 2000 was growth in the proportion of population participating in outdoor activities. Also, growth in interest in nature study. With all the changes occurring in this country since 1960, new recreation trends have emerged. As reported in Outdoor Recreation for 21st Century America, watching, photographing, and identifying wild birds had attracted more than 50 million new participants in less than twenty years. Closely following birding were day hiking and backpacking, growing 193 and 182 percent, respectively, in less than twenty years. The greatest change has been in the mix of activities people chose. We will give some attention to this change. With all the changes occurring in this country since 1960, new recreation trends have emerged. As reported in Outdoor Recreation for 21st Century America, watching, photographing, and identifying wild birds had attracted more than 50 million new participants in less than twenty years. Closely following birding were day hiking and backpacking, growing 193 and 182 percent, respectively, in less than twenty years. The greatest change has been in the mix of activities people chose. We will give some attention to this change.

8. Though the technology of outdoor equipment and clothing has evolved dramatically over the years, all of the activities popular in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s are still popular. However, many other key aspects of society and of outdoor recreation have been changing, not just the technology. The technology available is so very different now. Canvas, fiber glass and leather have given way to lightweight synthetics, flexible plastics and gore tex.The technology available is so very different now. Canvas, fiber glass and leather have given way to lightweight synthetics, flexible plastics and gore tex.

9. Since 1960, many, many changes have taken place. Some of the drivers are familiar to us all. The population is about 70% larger now than in 1960. Households, drivers, workers and vehicles have grown faster than has population. The number of vehicles relative to the number of people has grown especially fast.Since 1960, many, many changes have taken place. Some of the drivers are familiar to us all. The population is about 70% larger now than in 1960. Households, drivers, workers and vehicles have grown faster than has population. The number of vehicles relative to the number of people has grown especially fast.

12. On of the more dramatic changes in the U. S. is changing race and ethnicity. While I will not be able to cover the effects of demographic shifts, we all know that age, cultural background, and many other factors are important in determining what people do.On of the more dramatic changes in the U. S. is changing race and ethnicity. While I will not be able to cover the effects of demographic shifts, we all know that age, cultural background, and many other factors are important in determining what people do.

13. Of course, our economy is currently in a state of shock. Inflation is at about 5% annual, GDP growth is negative—just, unemployment is at about 6.5%, and the prime rate is at about 4%. But, through the 1990s and early 2000s the economy of the U. S. showed strong growth and pushed some of the trends I will share.Of course, our economy is currently in a state of shock. Inflation is at about 5% annual, GDP growth is negative—just, unemployment is at about 6.5%, and the prime rate is at about 4%. But, through the 1990s and early 2000s the economy of the U. S. showed strong growth and pushed some of the trends I will share.

17. GROWTH OF INTERNET USERS WORLD- WIDE Dec. 1995 16 Million Dec. 1997 70 Million Dec. 1999 248 Million Dec. 2000 451 Million Dec. 2003 719 Million April 2004 757 Million April 2005 934 Million Now, Approaching 1.6 Billion

19. Outdoor Recreation Trends UP Through 2007

20. The trend is from an estimated 208 million to 217 million people age 16 or older from 2000 to 2007 A recreation activity days is any amount of time in one day the activity was participated in. More than one activity often occurs in the same day. Over all 60 activities, per capita days of participation increased almost 16 percent between 2000 and 2007, grwoting from 67 billion days to almost 83 billion. The trend is from an estimated 208 million to 217 million people age 16 or older from 2000 to 2007 A recreation activity days is any amount of time in one day the activity was participated in. More than one activity often occurs in the same day. Over all 60 activities, per capita days of participation increased almost 16 percent between 2000 and 2007, grwoting from 67 billion days to almost 83 billion.

21. Trends through 2007 in nature-based outdoor recreation Growth in some near-home activities (e.g., wildlife watching or swimming); others remote (such as backpacking or climbing). Between 2000 and 2007, the total people participating in nature-based activities grew by 3.1 percent. Number of days of participation grew about 32 percent. Over all 50 nature-based activities, per capita days increased by more than 22 percent. We can isolate some of the activities we included as outdoor recreation in the previous slides. Looking at the 50 activities linked to a natural setting or some other element of nature, we can focus on nature-based outdoor recreation. Nature is wildlife and birds, streams and lakes, snow and ice, hunting and fishing sites, different types of water bodies, trails, rugged terrain and caves, and other natural settings, on public or private land and water. Between 2000 and 2007, the total people participating in nature-based activities grew from 197 to 203 million. Number of days of participation grew from 41 to nearly 55 billion. We can isolate some of the activities we included as outdoor recreation in the previous slides. Looking at the 50 activities linked to a natural setting or some other element of nature, we can focus on nature-based outdoor recreation. Nature is wildlife and birds, streams and lakes, snow and ice, hunting and fishing sites, different types of water bodies, trails, rugged terrain and caves, and other natural settings, on public or private land and water. Between 2000 and 2007, the total people participating in nature-based activities grew from 197 to 203 million. Number of days of participation grew from 41 to nearly 55 billion.

22. Viewing, photographing, studying, and otherwise showing interest in nature is a big part of the increase picture associated with nature-based recreation This growth is especially true for flowers, trees, natural scenery, wildlife and birds.Viewing, photographing, studying, and otherwise showing interest in nature is a big part of the increase picture associated with nature-based recreation This growth is especially true for flowers, trees, natural scenery, wildlife and birds.

23. Driving off road includes ATVs, off highway motorcycles, 4-wheel drive highway vehicles, dune buggies, and other types of motorized vehicles.Driving off road includes ATVs, off highway motorcycles, 4-wheel drive highway vehicles, dune buggies, and other types of motorized vehicles.

25. A few of the nature-based activities experienced decreases in both the number of people who participated and total days of participation Primitive camping (not in developed campgrounds), backpacking, and mountain climbing showed decreases in the number of people who participated, but increases in the number of days of participation Visiting prehistoric sites, saltwater fishing, and snorkeling showed increases in number of people who participated, but decreases in total days For a sizable number of nature-based activities, however, both the number of people participating and the summed days of participation increased Net effect, growth of nature-based recreation such as mountain biking, coldwater fishing, whitewater rafting, and downhill skiing There are significant changes in what people chose as nature-based activities There are significant changes in what people chose as nature-based activitiessuch as mountain biking, coldwater fishing, whitewater rafting, and downhill skiing There are significant changes in what people chose as nature-based activities There are significant changes in what people chose as nature-based activities

26. Highlighting A few activities--Decreasing Activity Percent Participants Percent Days Picnicking -1.4 -17.2 Visiting Historic Sites -4.5 -15.2 Day Hiking 6.8 -20.9 Visiting Prehistoric sites 2.4 -7.3 Mountain Biking -8.0 -32.7 Cold Water Fishing -2.1 -7.0 Canoeing 2.3 -17.9 Rafting -16.8 -1.0 Downhill Skiing -14.8 -15.7 The red lettered activities are important draws for recreation-based tourism. There are still large numbers of people who participate in these activities. Snow boarding has taken the place of downhill skiing and kayaking has taken the place of some raftingThe red lettered activities are important draws for recreation-based tourism. There are still large numbers of people who participate in these activities. Snow boarding has taken the place of downhill skiing and kayaking has taken the place of some rafting

27. Highlighting a few other activities--Increasing Activity Percent Participants Percent Days Walking 9.6 13.9 Family gatherings outdoors 4.2 13.7 Swimming (not pools) 4.0 2.2 Gathering mushrooms/berries 16.1 1.9 Developed Camping 2.7 9.3 Warmwater fishing 7.3 5.6

29. Forest Recreation

30. Visitation to Public Lands Level to Increasing, except NFs The paper back in February in the PNAS said that public land visitation was in steep decline. But, that was per-capita, not total. Agency data showed state park, national park, and national wildlife refuge visitation stable or increasing since the 90s. State park visitation in 2007 rose back above the former level reported in 2001 (a 0.7% increase) (National Association of State Park Directors, 2007). 2008 numbers coming. National Park visitation had been stable since 2001, but in 2007, visitation rose by almost three million. 2008 numbers coming. National wildlife refuge visitation has grown from 33 million in 1998 to over 40 million in 2007, growth of 21 percent The NF trend not available earlier, but now shows -13% 2004 - 2007

32. BUT, What happens to Recreation Trends when we add data from 2008 to early 2009---vast changes in the drivers of demand? The economy---recession actually began Jan. 2007 (recession = reduced growth in real GDP in 2 successive quarters) Gasoline (doubled over price in 2004) Climate change (now widely evident) Etc.

36. One of the observed physical impacts of this warming has been an increase in the number of frost-free days across the globe. In the US, the average change is to increase the ‘growing season’ by 10 days on average – in parts of the US this is an even greater change. The greatest changes have occurred in the west and southwest US. The implications of this change can be subtle – farmers markets have extended market seasons, obviously home gardeners have longer seasons. Local agriculture is also influenced. Winter recreation. One of the observed physical impacts of this warming has been an increase in the number of frost-free days across the globe. In the US, the average change is to increase the ‘growing season’ by 10 days on average – in parts of the US this is an even greater change. The greatest changes have occurred in the west and southwest US. The implications of this change can be subtle – farmers markets have extended market seasons, obviously home gardeners have longer seasons. Local agriculture is also influenced. Winter recreation.

37. SO, What does happen to Recreation Trends when we add data from 2008 to early 2009? The economy---recession actually began Jan. 2007 (recession = reduced growth in real GDP in 2 successive quarters) Gasoline (doubled over price in 2004) Climate change (now widely evident) Etc.

46. National Kids Survey

51. Summary of Trends Recreation activities widely popular in the 1950s through the 1980s are still popular However, there have been many profound changes over the last 50 years that affect what people choose to do (or not do) for their outdoor recreation The popularity of outdoor recreation continued to grow up to 2000, and change, e.g., popularity of birding and motorized forms of activity. By 2000, interest in observing and studying/learning about nature emerging strong The most noticeable change by 2000 was growth in the proportion of the total population that participated in outdoor activities. Mainly, more people, changing demographics, more vehicles, economic uncertainty, internet and media use, the spread of people and houses over the land ….. Mainly, more people, changing demographics, more vehicles, economic uncertainty, internet and media use, the spread of people and houses over the land …..

52. Summary of Trends Outdoor recreation generally, and nature-based recreation especially, were still growing through 2007. The mix of Americans’ activities, however, was changing over time, noticeably (e.g., viewing/photographing nature and motorized off-highway riding growing) Some traditional activities were declining, like picnicking, visiting historic sites, canoeing, rafting BUT, there have been enormous changes since 2007---gas prices, finance industry, recession, ….., and they continue to change Gas prices did affect trips and activity selection Kids still do spend time outdoors The wildest wild card will likely be climate change

54. Recreation Demand Trends---An Update Ken Cordell, Carter Betz, Gary Green, Shela Mou Forest Service SRS, UGA, and FS RMRS Athens, GA and Ft. Collins, CO My specialty is outdoor recreation trends. Linda’s specialty is climate change and its ecological effects. Neither of us are tourism specialists. The Forest Service manages the nearly 200 million acre National Forest System. Our agency also manages the largest natural resources science organization in the world. My specialty is outdoor recreation trends. Linda’s specialty is climate change and its ecological effects. Neither of us are tourism specialists. The Forest Service manages the nearly 200 million acre National Forest System. Our agency also manages the largest natural resources science organization in the world.