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Enhancing Drought Forecasting: NIDIS and CPC Collaboration

Learn about the latest in drought forecasting from NOAA CPC experts and NIDIS, focusing on outlook methods, recent changes, verification, and future improvements. Explore tools, models, and forecasts for better drought predictions.

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Enhancing Drought Forecasting: NIDIS and CPC Collaboration

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  1. CPC Drought Forecasting and NIDIS Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 5th U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland, Oregon October 10-11, 2007

  2. Outline • Overview of how the CPC Outlook is put together • Recent changes to the Drought Outlook • Verification: How are we doing? • The Future: Meeting the Needs of NIDIS

  3. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html Latest Seasonal Drought Outlook

  4. Short and Long-term Forecast Contributions + +

  5. Principal Drought Outlook Inputs 2-Wk Soil Moisture CPC Long-Lead Precip. Outlook Constructed Analogue Soil Model Palmer 4-mo Probabilities Medium-Range Fcst

  6. Recent Changes • Began twice/month schedule (1st and 3rd Thursday) • Expanding CPC authors • Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)

  7. Changes Recently Considered • Add separate category for drought intensification • Abolish or re-define “Some Improvement” category • Automate verification calculations

  8. Drought Verification Jul-Sep 2007

  9. Improvement over PersistencePercent of Grid Points Correct vs a Forecast Based on Persisting Droughts Long-term mean = 13%

  10. NIDIS and Drought ForecastingFrom the NIDIS Implementation Plan, June 2007 • “Ensemble drought prediction is needed to maximize forecast skill, and downscaling is needed to bring coarse resolution drought forecasts from General Circulation Models down to the resolution of a watershed.” • “Improved understanding of the dynamical causes of long-term trends….” • Two basic approaches to drought prediction: 1) prediction of drought indices, and 2) prediction of hydrological conditions.

  11. FY08 Climate Test Bed Priority for NIDIS-Drought • New Drought Monitoring Products: Multi-model ensemble NLDAS • New Drought Forecast Tools: • Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools • Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved land-atmosphere coupling • Improved medium-range prediction based on NAEFs

  12. Princeton Soil Moisture Forecast Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Coupled Forecast System

  13. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtmlhttp://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml University of Washington Forecasts

  14. Two Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts at CPC • Continue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the general public • Develop objective seasonal probability forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users)

  15. One Prototype Suggestion of a Probabilistic Forecast

  16. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)

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