Sixth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan Generating Resource Assessments

1. Sixth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation PlanGenerating Resource Assessments Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2007

2. Purposes of the Regional Power Plan • Philosophy: “Convincing Inspiration & guidance” • Provide a forecast of regional need for electricity • Identify cost-effective conservation and generating resources - Energy and capacity • Model for utility planning • Guide for BPA resource acquisition • Analysis of regional electric power issues • Conservation methodology for I-937 • Source of information and data July 17, 2008

3. Statutory elements of the plan • Energy conservation program including model conservation standards • Recommendations for research and development • Methodology for determining quantifiable environmental costs and benefits • Demand forecast of at least 20-years • Forecast of BPA Administrator’s resource obligations by priority categories • Analysis of reserve and reliability requirements and cost-effective methods of providing reserves • Fish and Wildlife Program • Optional surcharge methodology July 17, 2008

4. Statutory provisions for resource selection Give priority to resources determined to be cost-effective: • Reliable and available when needed • Meet or reduce demand at incremental system cost no greater than any alternative • All direct costs over the effective life of the resource • 10% credit to conservation resources Give priority to the following resource types, in order: • Conservation (energy-efficiency) • Renewable resources • Resources using waste heat or high fuel conversion efficiency • “.. all other resources" July 17, 2008

5. Practical elements of the power plan Description & analyses of key issues affecting the Northwest electric power system: • Climate change • Energy & capacity resource adequacy • Fuel prices A Resource Plan: The lowest cost/risk mix of efficiency and generating alternatives to meet regional demand growth 5-year Action Plan: Actions that need to be taken by various entities in order to achieve the resource plan Technical Data: Detailed information on resource characteristics and costs, demand forecasts, fuel prices, and other inputs and assumptions July 17, 2008

6. Sections of the regional plan • Demand forecast • Conservation and generating resource assessments • Fuel price forecast • Analysis of key regional issues • Resource portfolio analysis • 5-year action plan (2010 – 2014) • Appendices w/supporting data & analyses July 17, 2008

7. Electricity Demand (Short & Long-term Demand Forecasting Models) Economic & Demographic Forecasts Load/Units Sales Price Load Fuel Price Forecasts Wholesale Price Forecast (AURORA Model) New Capacity & Energy Resource Alternatives Hydro Regional Hydro/ Adequacy Assessment (GENESYS Model) Power Planning Analytical Process Efficiency Levels and Improvement Costs (PROCOST Model) Cons Supply Resource Portfolio (Portfolio Risk Model) Optimum Cons July 17, 2008

8. Generating Resources Advisory Committee • Assist in the identification of significant generating resources and technology alternatives • Assisting in the identification of sources of technical, cost, environmental and other information concerning significant generating resources and technology alternatives • Reviewing information and assumptions concerning generating resources and technology alternatives. • Reviewing and interpreting Council analyses concerning generating resources and technology alternatives. July 17, 2008

9. Other advisory committees • Demand forecasting • Demand response • Generating resources • Natural gas • Conservation supply curve • Northwest Energy Efficiency Task Force • Regional Technical Forum (standing) • Wind Integration Forum (interim) • Resource Adequacy (standing) July 17, 2008

10. Sixth Power Plan Schedule • Complete assumptions & forecasts: Nov 2008 • Analyize major issues: Dec 08 - Feb 09 • Develop resource portfolio: Sep 08 - Feb 09 • Write draft plan: Sep 08 - May 09 • Release of draft for public comment: May 09 • Public comment period: May - Jul 09 • Final plan development: Jun - Nov 09 • Adoption of final plan: Nov 09 July 17, 2008

11. Generating resource options - I Potential major players (commercial and near-commercial) • Natural gas combined-cycle plants • Natural gas peaking plants (aero and frame gas turbines, recip. units) • Wind plants • Coal gasification combined-cycle (prohibited by state CO2 performance standards w/o CO2 separation & sequestration (CSS)) • Coal steam-electric plants (supercritical, ultra supercritical, CFBC, etc.) (prohibited by state CO2 performance standards w/o CSS) • Nuclear plants • Solar-thermal plants (decent resources are external to region) Potential major players (late in planning period) • Wave power plants • Offshore wind • Engineered geothermal July 17, 2008

12. Generating resource options - II Limited potential • Biomass and biogas residue plants • “Conventional” geothermal (binary & flash steam) • Solar photovoltaics • Hydropower (new and expansion) • Industrial cogeneration (gas, biomass, etc.) • Tidal current plants Related non-generating technologies • CO2 separation – IGCC, conventional coal or combined-cycle • CO2 sequestration - depleted oil or gas reservoirs (commercial, limited availability); geologic, terrestrial, oceanic, biological, etc. (early development, substantial potential) • Storage & flexibility technologies (pumped-storage, batteries, etc., etc.) Far-out (beyond planning period) • Space power satellites • Nuclear fusion July 17, 2008

13. Resource data & assumptions Commercial status – Prerequisites & availability for deployment. Application – Baseload energy, energy storage, load following, spinning reserve, etc. Project development and construction lead time – Development and construction lead time and cash flow Costs – Project development & construction, O&M, fuel, emissions, system integration, transmission, construction suspension, project termination and decommissioning. Technical Performance – Efficiency (heat rate), planned and scheduled outages, seasonal & hourly variability, capacity factor (energy-limited renewables), unit size, emissions. Potential – Amount of resource available for development in the region. July 17, 2008

14. Tentative GRAC schedule I • Meeting 1 • Intro to Sixth Power Plan • Interim power price forecast • Natural gas combined-cycle • Natural gas peaking plants • Meeting 2 (late August/early September) • Nuclear • Wind • Transmission • Solar-thermal • Portfolio risk model July 17, 2008

15. Tentative GRAC schedule II • Meeting 3 (October) • CO2 Sequestration • Advanced steam coal & IGCC • Storage/flexibility augmentation options • Revised fuel price forecast • Meeting 4 (November) • Biomass • CHP • Geothermal • Solar photovoltaics • Offshore wind • Hydro, wave, hydrokinetic July 17, 2008

16. Tentative GRAC schedule III • Possible Meeting 5 (Q1 2009) • Discuss analyses of key issues • Discuss resource portfolio analysis • Discuss 5-yr action plan July 17, 2008