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From Planet to Patients - Health Under Threat Andy Haines Medact re-launch conference

From Planet to Patients - Health Under Threat Andy Haines Medact re-launch conference. Country progress in reducing under-five mortality (MDG4). 49% in Africa. 2 8 are African countries. All are African countries. African Countries Eritrea Ethiopia Liberia Malawi Tanzania.

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From Planet to Patients - Health Under Threat Andy Haines Medact re-launch conference

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  1. From Planet to Patients - Health Under Threat Andy Haines Medact re-launch conference

  2. Country progress in reducing under-five mortality (MDG4) 49% in Africa 28 are African countries All are African countries African Countries Eritrea Ethiopia Liberia Malawi Tanzania Countdown to 2015, report June 2012, Figure 3, progress updated for 2012 estimates

  3. Growth in Urban Slums A total 227 million people in the world have moved out of slum conditions since 2000 butthe absolute number of slum dwellers has increased from 777 million in 2000 to 828 million in 2010

  4. Income Poverty

  5. Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) versus ODA, 2000-09 (in billions of current US$)

  6. Commission on the Social Determinants of HealthEconomic Governance Matters “ …. in many cases, there is a net financial outflow from poorer to richer countries – an alarming state of affairs” (p 38) “Structural inequities in the global institutional architecture maintain unfairness in trade-related processes and outcomes” (p 132)

  7. Inequality (Gini coefficient) Global Wealth Inequality = 89 (official exchange rates) • Higher than wealth inequality in any individual country • Top 5% individuals take 71% of global wealth% • Bottom half, take 1% • The middle 60% take 6%

  8. Inequalities on the Rise 1,426 individuals have more wealth ($5.4 trillion) than the total 2010 GDP of South America ($3.5 trillion, pop. 392 million) and Africa ($1.6 trillion, pop. 1 billion) CIA World Factbook 2000-2010 8.5 million people (1/14th of 1%) own 84% of total global personal (private) financial wealth. Henry, Price of Offshore Revisited http://royal.pingdom.com/2011/03/11/world-billionaire-stats-charts/

  9. Public debt in advanced economies average %GDP Post war reconstruction Banking bailouts SAPs Source: IMF World Economic Outlook 2012, p. 101

  10. Costs of the Financial Crisis (2008-10) • Direct public subsidy to banks: over USD 100 billion annually by the US/UK governments • Total bank bailouts: USD 9 trillion* • Total stimulus: USD 2.4 trillion** • Total IMF emergency loans: USD 1.0 trillion [total global ODA = USD 0.1 trillion] • Recessionary effects and lost global economic income: around USD 4 trillionannually, expected to persist for many years, and likely ranging between USD 60 and 200 trillion * This figure excludes large bailouts in Spain, Ireland, Greece and other non-G20 countries but some of this may be recovered as banks become profitable, if the bailout is in the form of (generally non-voting) shares ** 25% spent on social welfare Sources: Andrew Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability, Bank of England: The $100 Billion Question. Institute of Regulation and Risk, Hong Kong, 30 March 2010; UNICEF, A Recovery for All? 2012.

  11. Health and Social Consequences of the Crisis • In Europe and US states increase in suicides • In Greece, suicides have risen by more than 60% since 2007. • Labour market policies can reduce effects • 28,000-50,000 excess infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2009 • Increase in out of pocket spending on health, ‘medical poverty’ (Sources: Stuckler, McKee, Basu et al. Lancet; Friedman and Schady. Health Economics)

  12. Those who support fiscal tightening argue that it is indispensable for restoring the confidence of financial markets, which is perceived as key to economic recovery. This is despite the almost universal recognition that the crisis was the result of financial market failure in the first place… (p.V)

  13. Total net Official Development Assistance (ODA) received worldwide in 2010 was $130.5 billion, compared to world military spending of $1629 billion.

  14. How will breaching planetary boundaries affect human health ? (Rockstrom et al Nature 2009) • Non –linear effects • Synergies • Drivers – consumption, population, urbanisation etc • Putting health in an ecosystem framework

  15. Recent estimates suggest 40 % chance of 4º C rise in Temperature by 2100 with Business as Usual (IEA 2012, WB 2013)

  16. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress Steven C. Sherwood and Matthew Huber PNAS 2010 Exceeding peak heat stress for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans ‘....It would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about on 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question’ D.S.Battisti and R.L. Naylor . Science 2009

  17. 2010 – a harbinger of things to come? Pakistan floods ~ 20 m affected Chinese floods ~ 12m displaced Russian drought and fires –wheat harvest down ~ 30% 56,000 extra deaths in Moscow and Western Russia Record temperatures in 17 countries.

  18. The Global Water Crisis Water scarcity is growing - by 2025 more than half of the world’s population is projected to live under conditions of severe water stress 276 major transboundary watersheds cross the territories of 145 countries 70% of all freshwater is used for irrigation 50-60% of wetlands have been lost

  19. CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050 20 36 • Plus climate-related: • Flood/storm/fire damage • Droughts – range, severity • Pests (climate-sensitive) • Infectious diseases (ditto) 80 64 Percentage change in yields to 2050 -50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100 UN Devt Prog, 2009

  20. Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth (for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq) ( Stern review) GDP Current Time 2030 Schematic graph

  21. Health co-benefits from the ‘low-carbon’ economy Through policies in several sectors e.g. • Housing • Transport • Food and agriculture • Electricity generation

  22. Barriers to policy change • Vested interests • Organised denialism • Political short-termism • Divided public opinion • Perception that change is expensive and difficult

  23. Climate Consequences of Regional Nuclear War • Nuclear explosions ignite fires that burn whole cities • Soot lofted high into the atmosphere absorbs incoming sunlight • Dramatic decrease in amount of light reaching the surface • Large, rapid drops in surface temperature International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

  24. Global climate change unprecedented in recorded human history Graph courtesy of Alan Robock

  25. Nuclear War: The Impact on Agriculture • Decline in available food • Increases in food prices • Food inaccessible to hundreds of millions of • the world’s poorest • World grain stores only sufficient for 68-80 days • 215 million people added to rolls of malnourished International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

  26. Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons convened by Norway last March attended by 128 States, the ICRC, a number of UN humanitarian organisations and civil society, UNGA 68: Joint Statement on the Humanitarian Consequences of Nuclear Weapons 21.10. 2013

  27. Why is needed. • Addressing the interlinked crises- global environment, weapons of mass destruction, socioeconomic and governance. • Rebutting attacks on science by special interests • Putting health at the heart of development

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