Dr. Smith goes to Washington: Challenges of disseminating research to policy makers

1. Dr. Smith goes to Washington: Challenges of disseminating research to policy makers Keith Humphreys, Ph.D. Director, VA Program Evaluation and Resource Center Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Stanford University School of Medicine

2. Four inter-related challenges of making a policy impact • Inadequate theory of use • The is-ought gap • Pauline Kael problem • The end of “professional reform”

3. Challenge #1 Inadequate theory of use • Definition of theory of use • The culture of 1960s program evaluation • An example

4. Empirically refuted assumptions about knowledge use • Policy makers search for evidence • Policy makers read journal articles • Policy makers believe journal articles • Policy makers understand science • Policy is largely driven by science

5. Empirical foundations of a reasonable theory of use • Policy makers are deluged with “evidence” • Policy makers read newspaper front pages • Policy makers believe scientists with whom they have a relationship • Many policy makers do not understand science • Science is one but one input in a complex policy formation process

6. #2 The is-ought gap In every system of morality, which I have hitherto met with, I am surpriz'd to find, that instead of the usual copulations of propositions, is, and is not, I meet with a proposition that is connected with an ought, or an ought not. This change is imperceptible; but is however, of the last consequence. For as this ought, or ought not, expresses some new relation or affirmation, 'tis necessary that a reason should be given; for what seems altogether inconceivable, how this new relation can be a deduction from others, which are entirely different from it. --David Hume

7. Example of an is-ought gap • Smoking increases risk of cancer • Higher cigarette taxes reduce smoking • Therefore government should raise taxes on cigarettes to reduce smoking and cancer

8. Why do academic scientists often believe that science yields a clear policy conclusion? • Discomfort with accepting that our values are not facts • The Pauline Kael problem

9. #3 The Pauline Kael problem • “I don’t understand how Nixon won the election; I don’t know anyone who voted for him” --Pauline Kael

10. Remember who the deviant is… U.S. Psych ProfsU.S. adults 2001 Median Income $70k $33k Post-graduate degree 100% 9% Usually vote Republican 5% 40% Believe in God <20% 96% Reg Religious Services <10% 40% “I am a liberal” 37% 10% Person of Color 7% 27%

11. Consequences of the Kael Problem in U.S. Academia • Outgroup homogeneity • Misperception of mainstream politics • Echo chamber produces weak arguments • Ought can easily masquerade as is • Cynicism among philosopher-kings

12. The only solution I have found for the is-ought and Pauline Kael Problems • Sustained engagement with individuals of diverse political views outside of academia. • Hazards and benefits thereof

13. #4: End of “professional reform” • Senator Moynihan’s analysis of war onpoverty • The romance of science 1945-early 1970s • President Clinton’s health care reform effort • From evidence-driven policy to policy-driven evidence • The expansion of dubious scientific data

14. Misleading charts have increased sharply in recent years… Note: Apologies to Jon Stewart and the writers of The Daily Show

15. Raising the drinking age as an example of successful policy dissemination • The arrival of data on teenage drinking and drink driving fatalities (1950s-1960s) • The emergence of a constituency that promulgated the data • Guided by a realistic theory of use • Key scientists built relationships • The media as a conduit for science • Escaping the Pauline Kael problem