The Hume Workforce Development Committee Hume Regional Development Australia

1. The Hume Workforce Development CommitteeHume Regional Development Australia Transport & Logistics Labour Market Snapshot Workforce Planning Australia | March 2012

2. Transport & Logistics Industry The Transport and Logistics industry encompasses the organisations that carry out “the movement of goods and people from an origin to a destination.” The Transport & Logistics Industry Skills Council breaks the industry down into 6 key sectors: Logistics & Warehousing Road Transport Transport & Logistics Ports Maritime Aviation Rail Source: Transport & Logistics Industry Skills Council, Environmental Scan 2011

3. National Industry Overview

4. Industry Employment The Transport & Logistics industry is the 9th largest industry in Australia employing 573,845 people (5.1% of the total workforce) accross the six sectors. Industry Employment Level February 2012 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, February 2012 data.

5. Historical Employment Growth • Over the last decade, employment in the industry has shown growth with an average annual growth rate of 2.3 per cent. • Employment experienced a decline in 2010 which in part is attributable to the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis. Employment Level ('000) - February 1992 to February 2010 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data)

6. Employment variability • While long term job growth in the industry has been strong, annual employment changes have historically been variable. • The industry is highly cyclical and activity in the wider economy translates to the industry as movements in both raw materials and consumer goods contract or expand. Employment Level (line RHS) and Annual Change ('000) - year to February 2010 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data)

7. Projected Employment Growth • Employment declined by 6.8% in 2010 (partly attributable to the GFC) • Over the period 2010-15 employment is projected to grow at 2.2% (DEEWR forecast 2.3%) which is comparatively stronger to an all industries projection of 1.8%. • Forecast employment growth (2010-15) will equate to around 67,000 new jobs) Projected Employment Growth (% pa) - to February 2010 (and 5 years to 2014-15 (projected) Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data); DEEWR projections to 2014-15

8. Main employing occupations • Truck Drivers dominate employment in the industry. Other common occupations for employees include Couriers and Postal Deliverers, Automobile Drivers, Bus and Coach Drivers, and Store persons. Figure 21: Top 20 Employing Occupations (‘000) - 2009 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR trend data, four quarter average)

9. Workforce Development Challenges There are several workforce development challenges facing the Transport and Logistics Industry. Source: Transport & Logistics Industry Skills Council, Environmental Scan 2011

10. Workforce Development Challenges Diversity • The industry is characterised by immense diversity in occupations, workforce development needs, business types and sizes, and locations. Growth • The industry is expected to show strong growth over the next 20 years, challenging its capacity to attract, retain and develop workers. Workforce Demographics • The industry is faced with an ageing workforce. The latest figures released by DEEWR show that nearly half of all workers in the industry are aged 45 years and over, compared with the average of 38.5% for all industries. New and Emerging technologies • Technological developments call for higher-order skills in the workforce. Adaptability will be particularly important, as workers will need to cope with an industry that is constantly changing. Source: Transport & Logistics Industry Skills Council, Environmental Scan 2011

11. Workforce Development Challenges A Cleaner Environment • New ‘green’ jobs will emerge over time as a result of a low-carbon economy and advances in fuel sources and infrastructure. Many of these roles will require investment in training at a workforce level to ensure employees are appropriately skilled. Competition for workers • Competition from the resources industry is a challenge for the Industry. Many transport and logistics skills are easily transferable. Workers are being drawn away by higher-paid jobs in resources. Competition is expected to intensify with feedback from industry suggesting that skills shortages across sectors are likely to increase. Regulatory Reform • Industry has found it difficult to keep up with regulatory requirements accross jurisdictions. Reforms are underway across the various sectors to reduce the compliance burden carried by industry. The workforce skill set needs to be able to respond quickly to address the impact of reforms. Vocational Education and Training (VET) Reforms • Several VET reforms are underway, focused on a renewed role for industry and new funding models that aim to leverage industry investment in workforce development. Source: Transport & Logistics Industry Skills Council, Environmental Scan 2011

12. National skills in demand Note: Red text indicates occupation included as part of this labour market analysis Source: Transport & Logistics Industry Skills Council, Environmental Scan 2012

13. Hume region

14. General description of the Transport system in Hume • The transport system is vital to the economy and viability of industries in the Hume Region. • Drivers of growth of the Hume Transport system over the next 25 years include: • Population Growth: The population of the four Hume sub regions is expected to grow from 300,000 to 400,000 people. • Increased freight movement: Movement will increase to a projected 58 million tonnes annually, with the Hume Freeway freight task projected to grow by 50% over the next 20 years. • Increased visitor numbers: Visitors to the region are projected to rise well above the current 2.5 million that come to the region each year. • The road system network (shown in following slide) will need to mature through upgrades and improvements to infrastructure and service links traversing east-west and north-south across the Hume Region. These links will provide mobility within the region and to locations outside of the region and will support a strong, robust network of connected settlements. • The future growth and success of the transport and logistics industry in Hume is largely dependent on the advancement of transport infrastructure. Source: Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities 2010-2012, Skills Vic 2010

15. Road and Rail System Network Source: Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities 2010-2012, Skills Vic 2010

16. Employment in Transport, Postal & Warehousing by LGA Total Industry 4,663 (2006) 2006 Census vs. 2011 Census data TBC (2012) Wodonga Moira 655 (2006) 463 (2006) Indigo 266 (2006) TBC (2011) TBC (2011) Towong TBC (2011) 109 (2006) TBC (2011) G Shepparton 1,049 (2006) Benalla TBC (2011) 211 (2006) TBC (2011) Wangaratta Strathbogie 109 (2006) 228 (2006) TBC (2011) TBC (2011) Alpine 151 (2006) Mitchell TBC (2011) 999 (2006) Mansfield TBC (2011) 179 (2006) Hume Region Boundary Sub-region Boundary Local Government Area (LGA) Boundary TBC (2011) Murrindindi 244 (2006) TBC (2011)

17. Employment growth projections in Hume • According to Monash projections employment is expected to grow and level out over the period to 2015. • Average annual growth rate is calculated at 4%. Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

18. Occupations • The top employing occupations in the region are as follows: Transport (Top 10 occupations by employment level Hume) Note: Red text indicates occupation included as part of this labour market analysis Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria . Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

19. Occupation growth • Monash projections show growth in all transport and logistics occupations. • Strongest growth is expected in the truck driver occupation. Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

20. Industry Education attainment levels • VET education enrolment data shows an increase in course enrolments for the industry. Growth is being driven by the Cert IV, III, I level qualifications Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

21. Age profile of enrolments • Across all industry occupations there has been the greatest growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 20-24 year old age groups. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

22. Diversity of Enrolments • The diversity of enrolments has increased in the industry within Hume. • The strongest growth can be seen in the proportion of CALD enrolments. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

23. Transport, Postal and Warehousing VET Education Data Truck Driver (General) Storeperson Delivery Driver Warehouse Administrator

24. Truck Driver (General)

25. Truck Driver VET Course Enrolments • Truck Driver enrolments in VET courses have decreased in Hume from 2008-2011. • Decreases can be seen in both VET courses for the occupation. Note: A representative from the Industry Skills Council explained that a decrease in enrolments may be attributable to a change in the training package. An additional factor is that due to the nature of the job, drivers are time poor and limited in study capacity. (03/04/2012) Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

26. Truck Driver Age Profile of VET Enrolments • The age profile of truck drivers enrolled in VET courses has remained consistent to the drop in total enrolment numbers for the period. • Enrolments are generally spread across age groups with small increases in the 35-39, 40-44 and 45-49 groups. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

27. Diversity of Truck Driver VET Enrolments • Despite a decrease in total enrolment numbers, there has been an increase in indigenous and CALD enrolments over the period 2008-2011. • The total number of disabled students has decreased however this is seen to be in alignment with total decrease in VET enrolment numbers for the occupation. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

28. Delivery Driver

29. VET Course Enrolments • There has been a decrease in Delivery Driver enrolments from 2008-2011. • A change in course titles is likely to have skewed data on course enrolments. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

30. VET Enrolments Age Profile • The age profile trend of delivery driver enrolments has generally remained consistent relative to the decrease in total enrolment numbers for the period. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

31. Diversity of VET Enrolments • Despite a decrease in total enrolment numbers the proportion of indigenous and CALD enrolments has increased. • Disabled enrolments have decreased. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

32. Storeperson

33. Storeperson VET Course Enrolments • Store person enrolments in VET courses have increased in Hume from 2008-2011. • This growth is being observed in the cert II Transport & Logistics qualification course. • Cert III enrolment numbers have dropped relative to the total increase in course enrolment numbers. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

34. Store person Age Profile of VET Enrolments • The age profile trend of store person enrolments has generally remained consistent relative to the total increase in course enrolment numbers for the period. • Enrolments have seen significant growth in the 15-19, 19-24 and 25-29 age groups. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

35. Diversity of Store person VET Enrolments • Relative to the increase in store person enrolment numbers all categories of disabled, indigenous and CALD enrolments has increased. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

36. Warehouse Administrator

37. VET Course Enrolments • There has been a significant increase in warehouse administrator enrolments for the period 2008-20122. • This growth is primarily attributed to increased enrolments in the certificate IV in Transport & Distribution (Warehousing & Storage) course. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

38. VET Enrolments Age Profile • The majority of warehouse administrators are in the 20-24 age group. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

39. Diversity of VET Enrolments • Diversity of VET enrolments has increased relative to overall growth however there has been a small decrease in CALD enrolments. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

40. Future direction

41. What this means? • Population Growth, increased freight movement and visitor numbers will place increased pressure on the Hume transport system and logistics industry. • Employment in the Hume industry is expected grow faster than the national average with an average annual growth rate of 4% to 2016. (National industry growth forecast of 2.2%) • Truck drivers are projected to show the strongest occupational growth with an average annual growth rate to 2016 forecast at 5.9%. It should be noted that there is a shortage of truck drivers nationally and this poses risk to the Hume industry. • Overall industry enrolments in VET courses have increased (most notable in the Cert I, III and IV qualification levels) • The strongest growth in industry enrolments has come from the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups. This suggests any current youth attraction strategies in place are effective. • The diversity of enrolments has increased across all focus occupations of the labour market scan including number of disabled, indigenous and CALD students from 2008 to 2011. This suggests any current diversity strategies in place to increase enrolments from these groups are effective.

42. What this means? • There is a high percentage of Warehouse Administrator and Store person VET enrolments in the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups. Truck and Delivery Driver occupations have an older age profile. A potential explanation for this may be that youth are following a pathway in the industry where they start in operational / administrative positions and transition to driver roles later in their career. Another factor may be the insurance implications and cost for employers of training / employing young drivers in these occupations.

43. Questions • What is driving growth stronger then the national average in the Hume Transport & Logistics industry? Have all factors been considered? • Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain truck drivers in the industry? • What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2006-2012? • Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24? • Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.? • Decrease in driver VET enrolments against this trend? Changes to training package / occupational requirements? • Are youth following a pathway in the industry? Starting in operational / administrative positions and transitioning to driver roles? • What factors are inhibiting youth age groups in the driver occupations? E.g. Insurance, cost, training etc.? • What are the lessons learnt that are applicable in other industries?