The Hume Workforce Development Committee Hume Regional Development Australia

1. The Hume Workforce Development CommitteeHume Regional Development Australia Health & Community Services Labour Market Snapshot Workforce Planning Australia | March 2012

2. Health & Community Services Industry The Health & Community Services Industry includes the following sectors. DisabilityServices Mental Health Hospitals Health & Community Services Alcohol &Drugs IndigenousHealth Comp Health EmploymentServices ChildrenServices Oral & Dental Aged Care Source: Community Service and Health Industry Skills Council: Environmental Scan 2011

3. Industry Snapshot • Health and Community Services is Australia’s largest employing industry. • Approximately 60 % of the total workforce is in Health sector with remaining 40% in Community Services. • Between 2005 – 2010 the industry contributed the largest number of new jobs created in Victoria. • The industry is the 2nd fastest growing industry in Australia behind Mining. • The ‘Carers and Aides’ occupation has the highest projected employment growth from 2011-2016 across all industries in Australia. Source: DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

4. National Industry Overview

5. Industry Employment Health Care and Social Assistance is the largest employing industry in Australia. At Feb 2011 total employment in the industry was 1,310,800 people. Industry Employment Level February 2012 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey, February 2012 data.

6. Historical Employment Growth • Employment growth has been strong and constant over the period 1993-2011. Figure: Employment Level (‘000)- 1993 to 2011 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (trend data) cat no 6291.0.55.003, DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

7. Projected Employment Growth • Employment growth is projected to be strong over the next 10 years well above the all industries projection. • The greatest growth was expected in 2011. The growth rate is projected to only taper off slightly over the next 10 years. Figure: Projected Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011 & 5 years to 2015-16 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (trend data) cat no 6291.0.55.003 (DEEWR Projections), DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

8. Occupations • Registered Nurses and Aged & Disabled Carers are the highest employing occupations in the industry Figure: Main Employing Occupations Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (trend data) cat no 6291.0.55.003, DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

9. Projected Occupational Growth • Carers & Aides are projected to experience the strongest employment growth behind Medical Practitioners and Nurses. Figure: Occupational Growth to 2015-16 Source: DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

10. Drivers of Workforce Growth All the drivers of workforce growth will be long term. Source: Environmental Scan 2011, Community Services & Health Industry Skills Council

11. Drivers of Workforce Growth Ageing population • The industry has a large proportion of older workers with nearly half of the workforce aged 45 years or older. Many of these workers will be approaching retirement in the next 10 years. Increased life expectancy • From 2010-2050 the number of people over the age of 85 will increase four-fold (From 400,000 to 1.8million). The demand on health care for an older population will increase in line with this trend. Increased number or people with disabilities • The number of Australians with a disability is expected to increase by over 50% by 2030. The demand for disabilities services is currently growing by 7.5% per year and the long-term care scheme (if implemented) will provide lifetime service entitlement from the point of disability identification. Clients have increasingly complex needs • The health system is identifying more dual and multiple disabilities, substance abuse problems and challenging behaviours with complex service requirements. Source: Environmental Scan 2011, Community Services & Health Industry Skills Council

12. Drivers of Workforce Growth Changes to Service Delivery • Health policy will shift current service delivery models to emphasise prevention, primary, community and home-based services, client functional independence and person-centric approaches. Reducing availability of informal carers (family and friends) • The number of informal carer is expected to drop due to decreasing family size, client preferences, increase in single or divorced people and increased workforce participation, especially by women. Change in Children's Services • The new National Quality Standard introduced mandated qualifications for most children’s services as well as changes to staff-to-child ratios. New services, work roles and skills sets will be needed to support this framework. Source: Environmental Scan 2011, Community Services & Health Industry Skills Council

13. Skills Shortages • The industry is undergoing a period of significant change with new roles emerging and roles changing to match service demands. For example, there has been increased use of assistants and advanced practitioners in recent years. • The Australian Government Skill Shortages List for Health and Community Services workers (often relating to ‘experienced’ staff, or staff with specialist skills) includes: • Radiographers • Sonographers • Speech pathologists (experienced, Grade 2 and above) • Physiotherapists (Grade 2 and above, specialist areas) • Medial practitioners • Div 1 Nurses (Community Health) • Div 2 Nurses (acute and critical care exp and other specialist skills) • Social Workers (Regional areas) • Child Care workers (metro) • Optometrists • Podiatrists • Audiologists • Psychologists • Social Workers (particularly in regional areas) • Welfare Workers • Dental Technician • It should be noted that most • shortages are amongst degree • qualified professionals.

14. Hume Overview

15. Employment in Health & Social Assistance by LGA Total Industry 14,173 (2006) 2006 vs. 2011 Census Data TBC (2012) Wodonga Moira 2,243 (2006) 1,257 (2006) Indigo 506 (2006) xxx (2011) xxx (2011) Towong xxx (2011) 311 (2006) xxx (2011) G Shepparton 3,976 (2006) Benalla xxx (2011) 732 (2006) xxx (2011) Wangaratta Strathbogie 2,397 (2006) 342 (2006) xxx (2011) xxx (2011) Alpine 566 (2006) Mitchell xxx (2011) 1,067 (2006) Mansfield xxx (2011) 344 (2006) Hume Region Boundary Sub-region Boundary Local Government Area (LGA) Boundary Murrindindi xxx (2011) 432 (2006) xxx (2011) Source: ABS Census Data 2006

16. Employment growth Projection in Hume According to Monash projections employment is expected to level out and remain steady over the period to 2015. Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

17. Occupations in Hume • 12% of the Hume workforce is employed in the Health and Community Services industry, making it the third highest employer in the region. • The 10 largest industry occupations in Hume versus Australia are shown below (highest to lowest):

18. Occupation Employment Levels The top employing occupations employment levels in the region are as follows: Health & Community Services (Top 10 occupations by employment level Hume) Note: Red text indicates occupation included as part of this labour market analysis Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria . Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

19. Occupation growth Monash projections show growth in all occupations. Strongest growth is expected in Registered Nurses and Aged & Disabled Carers. Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

20. Industry Education attainment levels VET education enrolment data shows an increase in course enrolments for the industry. Growth is being driven by the Cert III and diploma level qualifications. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

21. Age profile of enrolments Across all industry occupations there has been the greatest growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 40-44 year old age groups. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

22. Health & Community Services VET Education Data Aged and Disabled Carers Childcare Workers Welfare Workers Enrolled Nurses

23. Course Enrolments ‘Aged and Disabled Carers’

24. VET Course Enrolments – ‘Carers’ • Course enrolments have generally remained consistent 2008-2011. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

25. VET Enrolments Age Profile – ‘Carers’ • The highest enrolments are among the 15-19 aged group. This group has also experienced the greatest increase over the period 2008-2011. • There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 40 plus age group. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

26. Diversity of VET Enrolments – ‘Carers’ • All diversity groups showed an increase in enrolments with strongest growth coming from Indigenous students. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

27. Childcare WorkersCourse Enrolments

28. VET Course Enrolments –Childcare workers • Childcare enrolments have increased over the period. • Cert III in Children’s Services have more than doubled since 2008. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

29. VET Enrolments Age Profile –Childcare workers • The highest enrolments are among the 15-19 aged group. This group has also experienced the greatest increase over the period 2008-2011. • There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 40 plus age group. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

30. Diversity of VET EnrolmentsChildcare Workers • Enrolments of diverse students have slightly declined over the period 2008-2011 with the greatest reduction in CALD enrolments. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

31. Welfare Workers Course Enrolments

32. VET Course Enrolments – Welfare Workers • Welfare worker enrolments have increased over the period. • The Diploma of Community Services Work has seen the most significant growth. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

33. VET Enrolments Age Profile –Welfare Workers • The highest enrolments are among the 40-44 aged group. This group has also experienced the greatest increase over the period 2008-2011. • There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 20-30 and 40 plus age groups. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

34. Diversity of VET Enrolments –Welfare Workers • Enrolments of diverse students have slightly declined over the period 2008-2011. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

35. (Div 2) Enrolled Nurses Course Enrolments

36. VET Course Enrolments – Enrolled Nurses • Nurse enrolments have increased over the period. • The Diploma of Nursing has seen the most significant growth. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

37. VET Enrolments Age Profile –Enrolled Nurses • The highest enrolments are in the 20-24 year aged group. • There is a significant proportion of enrolments in the 40-54 age groups. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

38. Diversity of VET Enrolments – Enrolled Nurses • Enrolments of diverse students have increased over the period 2008-2011. • The greatest growth has been in disabled students. Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

39. Future direction

40. What this means? • Strong enrolments in Health and Social Assistance related courses in Hume suggest people understand it is a large & growing industry with increasing opportunities. • Personal Carers and Aides have the highest projected growth across all occupations and industries and is the largest employing occupation in Aged Care. The ageing profile in the region means growth for this occupation will continue. • Aged Care / Personal Carers – While the highest enrolments in HUME are among 15-19 year olds enrolments are also strong in the 40 plus aged groups. Young people are joining this industry, but are difficult to retain? Local research is needed to understand why. • The region has achieved increased enrolments in these courses from people with disabilities, CALD and Indigenous in recent years (2008-2011). • Local people are pursuing work as Childcare Workers – Enrolments in Hume in Certificate III has more than doubled since 2008. Have barriers to CALD groups joining the childcare industry been identified? • Welfare Workers– Enrolments in Hume courses suggest it is viewed as a second (or third career). What are the common pathways to this occupation? • Division 2 Nurses – Enrolments in Hume have increased in all age groups except for the 35-39 age group. The increased enrolments in Division 2 Nursing is assumed to be related to registration requirements

41. Questions • Are there other smaller occupations that are showing growth at the local level? • Which occupations are employers reporting local skill shortages or recruitment difficulties? • What is the nature of the shortages/or difficulties? E.g. Are they seasonal? In pockets? For certain shifts or positions? Specific regions? • Are shortages caused by high turnover rather than too few applicants? • If turnover is high for certain groups (e.g. Under 25s) Why? Is there a poor match between occupation and person, the course not sufficiently preparing students or expectations not matching reality? • Is turnover low for particular groups? Why? • What are the local examples where skill shortages have been resolved (e.g. job re-design, new pathways to grow their own’ • Are there clear pathways into these occupations and from these occupations to others?