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Bar-EcoRe Bar ents Sea Ec osystem Re silience under global environmental change 2010-2013

Bar-EcoRe Bar ents Sea Ec osystem Re silience under global environmental change 2010-2013. Kick-off meeting – Tromsø 15-17 June 2010. Kick off meeting. The main goal of the kick-off is to get all participants and SSC members together to: know each other

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Bar-EcoRe Bar ents Sea Ec osystem Re silience under global environmental change 2010-2013

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  1. Bar-EcoReBarents Sea Ecosystem Resilience under global environmental change2010-2013 Kick-off meeting – Tromsø 15-17 June 2010

  2. Kick off meeting • The main goal of the kick-off is to get all participants and SSC members together to: • know each other • share a common vision and understanding of the Bar-EcoRe project • strengthen the scientific plan • organize the logistics of the project (information & data flow, scientific collaborations and publications)

  3. Climate variability and change • unequivocal evidence for human impact on climate change • High natural variability in climate • Expected changes in mean and variance of climate

  4. Climate variability and change Past and anticipated future changes are particularly extreme in the Arctic Ocean

  5. Impact of climate on marine systems Climate variations and regional primary productivity

  6. Impact of climate on marine systems Multiple climate entry points and impact on species composition and interactions.

  7. Impact of climate on marine systems Anticipated climate impacts on species spatial distribution. Atlantic cod Cheung et al. 2008

  8. Impact of climate on marine systems Sensitivity to climate under exploitation Changes in age-structure and the impact of temperature on the recruitment of Barents Sea cod sliding correlation between temperature and recruitment Ottersen, Hjermann et Stenseth 2006

  9. Sensitivity to climate under exploitation

  10. NORKILMA / KystogHavet call Call, September 2009: Marine ecosystems: climate change, CO2 and fishery technology (Focus on Arctic environments) Goals: promote understanding of the effects of climate warming and increased CO2 concentration on the structure, function and services of the marine ecosystem, and to foster a sustainable fishery management under global environmental change Bar-EcoRe: Barents Sea Ecosystem resilience under global environmental change, joint proposal between IMR and UiT.

  11. Bar-EcoRe: main objective evaluate the effects of global environmental change on the future structure and resilience of the Barents Sea ecosystem

  12. Bar-EcoRe: main objective evaluate the effects of global environmental change on the future structure and resilience of the Barents Sea ecosystem climate and fishing-induced fish and benthos communities species comp, spatial structure, trophic network quantitative data analysis and modelling ability to absorb disturbance and maintain function

  13. Bar-EcoRe: more specific questions • What are the key characteristics of past temporal and spatial variations in fish and benthos communities and how are these related to past climate variability and fishing pressure? • How does climate variability and change propagate through the Barents Sea ecosystem and influences species interactions? • How can the combined effects of fisheries and climate modify the spatial distribution of plankton, benthos and fish species in the Barents Sea? • What determines vulnerability or resilience of the Barents Sea ecosystem and how will these be affected by possible future changes in climate and fisheries regimes? • Can we detect early warning signals and can we evaluate management strategies with regards to ecosystem resilience?

  14. Bar-EcoRe: The structure WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interactions WP3: Population distribution WP4: Resilience & Early warning

  15. Bar-EcoRe: The structure WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interactions Scientific Advisoty Panel Stakeholders Panel WP3: Population distribution WP4: Resilience & Early warning Thinking Working Disseminating

  16. Bar-EcoRe, WP1: Community structure investigate past and present spatial and temporal variability in fish and benthos communities in the Barents Sea in relation to environmental variability in space and time trawling climate change invasive species FISH Faunal communities from cluster analysis

  17. Bar-EcoRe, WP1: Community structure WP1: Community structure benthic-pelagic coupling IMR/PINRO surveys WP2: Trophic interactions data and concepts WP3: Population distribution WP4: Resilience & Early warning

  18. Bar-EcoRe, WP2: Trophic interactions investigate how climate variation propagates through the Barents Sea ecosystem through changes in species interactions Birds Humans Mammals Bottom up Top down Trophic cascades Fish Benthos Zooplankton LIGHT TEMPERATURE ACIDIFICATION CURRENTS TURBULENCE Phytoplankton

  19. Bar-EcoRe, WP2: Trophic interactions PP models WP2: Trophic interactions IMR/PINRO surveys benthic-pelagic coupling WP1: Community structure data and concepts WP3: Population distribution WP4: Resilience & Early warning

  20. Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution investigate the effects of future climatic conditions and other environmental or human stressors on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations. Climate Fishing Environment Pop state Population spatial distributions Population spatial distributions Model evaluation & selection Population spatial distributions PDMs PDMs PAST POSSIBLE FUTURES

  21. Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interactions data and concepts WP4: Resilience & Early warning WP3: Population distribution modelled distributions Past climate & climate models

  22. Bar-EcoRe, WP4: Resilience and early warning investigate how organismal, population and community properties influence Barents Sea ecosystem resilience and assess/forecast changes in resilience associated with climate change and fisheries • Species vulnerability • life-history traits • niche characteristics • population state • Communities vulnerability • species diversity • functional redundancy • food web connectivity Early warning signals, diagnostic tools

  23. Bar-EcoRe, WP4: Resilience and early warning WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interactions data and concepts WP3: Population distribution projections WP4: Resilience & Early warning

  24. Bar-EcoRe: The structure WP1: Community structure WP2: Trophic interactions Change in BS Resilience under global env. change WP3: Population distribution WP4: Resilience & Early warning

  25. WPs in summary • The four work-packages will combine and integrate a number of approaches: • process studies of trophic interactions • retrospective analyses of plankton, benthos, fish and climate data • predictive models of ocean climate • spatial distribution models under climate/fishing scenarios • life-history traits and ecological network analysis

  26. Thank you “Sciences defined by their concern with a general subject area are often intractable...Ecology may be the most intractable legitimate science that has ever developed.” “Most young scientists choose their careers because the act of doing science is remarkably pleasant and, sometimes, exciting and adventurous.” Lawrence B. Slobodkin. Simplicity and complexity in the games of the intellect

  27. BarEcore in 100 Words

  28. Key question How will global (climate) change affect the Resilience of the Barents Sea Ecosystem? Resilience: The ability to absorb disturbance and maintain function

  29. Related projects at IMR MENU II comparative modeling of marine ecosystem in US and Norway ENAC coupled biophysical-fisheries model in support to EAF Drinkwater Holst ADMAR Operational adaptive management for EAF FishExChange CC effects on fish distribution & fisheries economics Handegard Stiansen

  30. Timeline 2010 2011 2012 2013 data assembly climate effects on community changes WP1 biogeography space-time changes WP2 WP3 WP4 PDM

  31. Bar-EcoRe: the people Michel Greenacre, Andrey Dolgov, Ingvar Byrkjedal, Simon Jennings, Thierry Boulinier, Ken Drinkwater, Marten Scheffer Michaela Aschan Maria Fossheim Randi Ingvaldsen Lis Lindal Jørgensen Edda Johannesen Kathrine Michalsen Benjamin Planque Raul Primicerio ... One (+1) PhD One Post-Doc and others Directorate of Fisheries, Bar. Sea Manag. Plan (Cecilie von Quillfeldt), Directorate of Nature Resources, ICES, IOC (Luis Valdes), NAMMCO, Joint Russian-Norwegian Commission

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