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Flight Planning Smoke/Aerosol Outlook SEAC4RS 2013

Flight Planning Smoke/Aerosol Outlook SEAC4RS 2013. Prepared: 08/19/2013 0800 hours CDT (13:00Z) Forecast period: Wednesday (8/21) David Peterson Marine Meteorology Division Naval Research Lab - Monterey, CA. Bottom Line Upfront. Fire Observations:

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Flight Planning Smoke/Aerosol Outlook SEAC4RS 2013

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  1. Flight Planning Smoke/Aerosol OutlookSEAC4RS 2013 Prepared: 08/19/2013 0800 hours CDT (13:00Z) Forecast period: Wednesday (8/21) David Peterson Marine Meteorology Division Naval Research Lab - Monterey, CA

  2. Bottom Line Upfront Fire Observations: • Large fires continue to burn in the Western CONUS • Small fires have been observed in the SEUS Key Forecasting Points (Wednesday 8/21) • Synoptic flow (e.g. at 500 hPa) becomes zonal along the Canadian border, but an upper-level low may develop in over the OH Valley. • Smoke may be transported quickly to the east, but may also be trapped in the central CONUS Smoke Predictions (Wednesday 8/21): • Western fires: both new and older smoke will still be present on Wednesday! • SEUS: A few small fire are possible each day, but large-scale smoke transport is not expected.

  3. Current Fire Activity • Several ongoing large fires and recent pyroconvection • Many new fires! • Large-scale smoke transport is still occurring… • A few small fires have been observed in the SEUS..

  4. Aqua MODIS Sunday (8/18) Smoke

  5. Smoke Forecast • Some models are developing an upper-level low over the OH Valley. • More smoke trapped in the central CONUS? NAM 500 hPa, 18Z, 8/21

  6. Drought Conditions

  7. SEUS Satellite Fire Timeline • Backdrop is Sunday’s MODIS-Aqua image • A few small fires each day • Observed better by GOES • Short duration fires • Nothing at night • Occasional cloud cover obscures fire observations! • Very little smoke output!

  8. Summary • Large fires will still be burning in the western CONUS • Small fires are possible in MS, AR, LA, and TX • Much of the western smoke will be transported quickly to the east in zonal flow. • Older smoke (and some new smoke) may be trapped in the Central CONUS due to a developing upper-level low?

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