Climate change and Conflict: Bangladesh Perspective

1. Climate change and Conflict: Bangladesh Perspective Major General Muniruzzaman (Retd) President Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)

2. Introduction Bangladesh is one of the worst affected countries due to the adverse impacts of climate change. The human suffering and cost to development is massive to this country and its people. Between 1991 and 2000, 93 major disasters were recorded in Bangladesh, resulting in nearly 200,000 deaths and causing US $ 5.9 billion in damages. The impact of the climate change is eroding the assets, investment and future of the country.

3. Impacts on Key Sectors Some of the key sectors worst affected by climate change include- Agriculture Water Health Territorial loss Development consequences

4. Impact on Agriculture • Reduced agricultural productivity is potentially the most worrisome consequence of climate change. • It is predicted that over the course of the 21st century and beyond, sea level rise will threaten hundreds of thousands if not more than a million hectares of agricultural land. • It is estimated that in eastern Bangladesh alone 14,000 tons of grain production would be lost to sea level rise in 2030 and 252,000 tons would be lost by 2075.

5. Sea level rise Reduced or constrained Regional agricultural productivity Global warming, Deforestation, Degradation of agricultural land Extreme weather events Frequent droughts Erosion and silting Possible Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity

6. Impact on Water Availability • The availability of freshwater will be reduced by increased salinity intrusion into fresh water sources during the low flow conditions. • In the coastal regions this is brought about by sea level rise resulting in saline water intrusion in the estuaries and into the groundwater. • The effects are exacerbated by greater evaporation of freshwater as temperatures increase, coupled with a greater demand for fresh water in times of water stress.

7. Salinity affected areas in the coastal and offshore regions of Bangladesh Source:http://www.pakbs.org/pjbot/PDFs/38(5)/PJB38(5)1359.pdf

8. Impact on Human Health Climate change affects human health both directly and indirectly. Bangladesh is vulnerable to outbreaks of infectious, waterborne and other types of diseases. The incidence of malaria increased from 1556 cases in 1971 to 15 375 in 1981, and from 30 282 cases in 1991 to 42 012 in 2004 (WHO, 2006). Climate change also brings about additional stresses like dehydration, malnutrition and heat-related morbidity especially among children and the elderly. These problems are thought to be closely interlinked with water supply, sanitation and food production.

9. Incidences of some of the major climate-sensitive diseases occurring during the last few decades in BD

10. Health Effects Temperature -related illness and death Waterborne diseases Air pollution related health effects Infectious and other health effects Human Exposure Regional weather change; Heat waves; Extreme weather; Sea level rise; Salinity intrusion Climate Change Impact of Climate Change on Human Health

11. Loss of the Territory Territorial loss due to river erosion and sea level rise is an acute national problem and one of the major natural hazards. The World Disaster Report 2001 published by IFRCS, reveals that in Bangladesh annually 1 million people displaced and 9 thousand heaters of land inundated by river erosion.

12. Development impacts • Climate change and its variability have emerged as a serious challenge to development in general and poverty reduction in particular in Bangladesh. • Over the last three decades since 1973 over 0.17 million hectares (20.4%) of new land has been salt affected. • Climate change presents serious threat to the infrastructure of the country. It is making roads, water supplies, sewer systems and buildings more vulnerable and thereby place human health and safety at risk. • A World Bank Study revealed that about four percent of GDP is eroded by environmental degradation in Bangladesh.

13. Potentials to destabilisation Breakdown of social harmony and cohesion. Increasing competition over scarce resources Collapse of the traditional leadership structure Increasing stress on the political leadership structure of the state

14. Climate change as a threat multiplier Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, causing widespread instability in the socio-political settings. It heightens the existing social and political tensions and at times lead to a new ones Climate change opens up the opportunity for non-state actors to intervene and exploit the situation, thereby undermining the security and stability of the state to a great extent

15. Possibility to state collapse “When climate change significantly or environmental conditions deteriorate to the point that necessary resources are not available, societies can become stressed sometimes to the point of collapse” CNA Report States vulnerable to climate change are already weak and fragile State institutions already overstretched will come under additional pressure The ability of the state to cope with climate change will be minimum The impacts of the climate change will bring multiple stresses at a single point at a single time This situation will lead state to the point of collapse

16. Conflict Potentials The impacts of climate change have the potentiality to aggravate the various socio-economic problems of the country and generate tensions and conflicts in Bangladesh. Responses to disasters affect the redistributive capacity of governments and drain attention and capital away from other important programs, like health, education, infrastructure, and security. This in turn can lead to social tensions which are particularly likely to manifest through anti governmental movements. Climate change results in increased poverty and widespread loss of livelihood which is likely to have a substantial negative impact on the prospect for peace in the country.

17. Conflict Potentials (contd.) Loss of livelihood and the resultant deepening of poverty can serve as a recruiting ground for the terrorist groups, resulting in a higher conflict risk. The consequences of climate change can generate large scale migration which can potentially lead to various sorts of conflict i.e. group vs. group conflict (between bengali and the tribal people in the CHT), state vs. group conflict and state vs. state conflict (between India and Bangladesh).

18. Response Mechanisms Whom to be addressed: Women and children who are the most vulnerable in the face of any climatic disasters The most marginalised groups of the society Areas to be addressed Coastal belt Southern districts of the country Sundarbans-the largest mangrove forest Issues to be addressed Capacity building for integrating climate change in planning, designing of infrastructure, conflict management and landwater zoning for water management institutions.

19. Response Mechanisms (contd.) Training on disaster preparedness involving local institutions/local government. Initiate a mass awareness programme to sensitize the public about the impacts of environmental degradation. Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change into policies and programmes in different sectors (focusing on disaster management,water, agriculture, health and industry). Adopt a regional approach to address climate change and manage migration.

20. Question and Answer Session

21. Thank You Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) www.bipss.org.bd