Analyzing risks The Geopolitics of Land Degradation

1. Caux Dialogue on Land & Security 2014 AnalyzingrisksThe Geopolitics of Land Degradation Caux July 1st 2014 Luc GNACADJA

2. BiodiversityRisks & Threats in the 21st Century "Global biodiversity models project that terrestrial species extinctions, loss of natural habitat, and changes in the distribution and abundance of species, species groups and biomes will continue throughout this century, with land use change being the main threat in the short term, and climate change becoming progressively much more important over the next several decades.” Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem servicesSource: CBD ,2010)

3. PlanetaryBoundariesExpansion of global cropland till 2050: Overshootsafe operating space Source: “Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply” UNEP/IRP, 2014

4. Land use change has transformed the Biosphere World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant) Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)

5. Global land use is a key indicator of global sustainability and must be assessed &monitored • The world might need additional cropland the size of Brazil by 2050 • The total additional land use demand in 2030 compare to land use in 2000 is 792 million ha in BAU scenario. (Source UNEP/IRP, 2014) • Where will such expansion take place? • Again over the remaining natural habitats while out there are more than 2 billion hectares of landscape that still hold potential for restoration? World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant) Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)

6. Hot spots of the security-related impacts of ClimateChange and Desertification Source: “Global Environmental Problems as a Risk to Security” German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2014 • 3 Conflicts Constellations • Water Scarcity • Loss of Land • Food Insecurity • 4 HotsSpots • Sahel: Desertification & Drought • Middle East: Hydrological Water Scarcity & Drought • Central Asia: Hydrolog. Water Scarcity & Desertification • South & South East Asia: Tropical Cyclones

7. Migration main trajectories DroughtDesertification WaterScarcity are major push factors for environmentally- induced migration Migration Environment & Conflicts Source: GermanAdvisory Council on Global Change ­ WBGU (2007)

8. DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION? It’s all about trade-offs Forest Grassland Use intensification 1. Undisturbed Function change or Function trade off 2. Extensive 3. Intensive Source: PBL 2009 From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total degradation

9. DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION? It’s all about trade-offs Forest Grassland Use intensification 1. Undisturbed Function change or Function trade off 2. Extensive 3. Intensive 4. .. Degraded?

10. Future scenarios Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World (LDNW) by 2030 Potential Objectif: Operate Land use expansion on already degraded areas Priorities: Prevent degradation Restore degraded areas Historical change options Soil factor NPP Food Fiber Water Floods Climate Biodiversity LDNW Restoration Ongoing change Prevention Business as usual 0 2000 2050 1990 2030 2040 2020 2010 Time LDNW by 2030 = Same amount of biologically & economically productive land including soil and its ecosystem services as in 2000 Figure adapted from Ben Ten Brink, 2013

11. Conclusion Quoting Aldo Leopold and Francis Bacon • ‘We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us.  When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and respect.’  • ‘We cannot command Nature except by obeying her.’  Thankyou

12. OWG-12PreliminaryList of SDGson June 16th 2014 Can’tseewhereCONSERVATIONdoes’ntsomehowqualify