1 / 47

Congress II

Congress II. 3/19/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form. Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: identify and explain the role of formal (congressional) institutions and their effect on policy.

loring
Download Presentation

Congress II

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Congress II 3/19/2012

  2. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form • Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: • identify and explain the role of formal (congressional) institutions and their effect on policy. • to understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas. • have a better understanding of why our national government works and why the American system of government is unique.

  3. Office Hours and Readings • Chapter 8 on Congress • Office Hours • Today 12-2 • Wednesday 10-2

  4. The Three Things You Need Getting Elected

  5. Name Recognition We Do not Vote for Nobodies

  6. Name Recognition • To Be Known, is to be known favorably • Media focuses on known candidates • Means more money spent elswehere

  7. Who Has Name Recognition • Incumbents • Lower Level office holders • Prominent people in the community

  8. Who Has Name Recognition: Born into it

  9. Actors • From the Love Boat • From the Dukes of Hazzard • Stuart Smalley

  10. Athletes Good Bad

  11. Running for Congress is not Free Money

  12. You need to raise and spend money • There is no public money available • It keeps getting more expensive • Winning a seat • 1.1 Million in the House • 6.5 Million in the Senate

  13. Why So Expensive? • Television • Travel • The War Chest

  14. Where You Get it • People • Pacs • Party/other

  15. Spend other People’s money

  16. Outspend My Challenger

  17. Money may not be the most important thing in a campaign, but it is a close second to what ever is

  18. Incumbency

  19. Incumbency • It is a great job, and you want to keep it • Incumbency gives you both money and name recognition

  20. Why Do Incumbents Win?: Money • People don’t give money to losers • You want a Return on Investment

  21. Why Do Incumbents Win? • Gerrymandering in the House • Name Recognition in House and Senate • Credit Claiming on bills

  22. Why do incumbents win: Constituency Services • Helping out the people back home • Earmarks • Traditional Service

  23. Why Incumbents Win: Homestyle • We vote for people like us • We vote for people we trust • You have to learn to match the district

  24. You Can’t Beat Somebody with no body • Weak Challengers • People Who Spend their own money • They Run Unopposed

  25. House Reelection Rates

  26. Senate Reelection Rates

  27. The Senate historically has lower rates of reelection, why?

  28. Why Do Incumbents lose?

  29. Scandal

  30. Why Else do you lose • Redistricting • National Trends and Coat-tails • Out of Touch/Too Old • First Re-election bid

  31. The Real battles Open Seats

  32. What Creates an Open Seat • Reapportionment in the House • Strategic Retirements – Win>Not Run>Lose • Ambition

  33. Open Seat Elections • Home of the Real Fights • Parties and Pacs pour in money • Parties believe if they can win, they can keep the seat forever • Strategic Candidates

  34. A Good year for the Republicans 2010

  35. A Historical Perspective

  36. Factor 1: Who isn’t there No Bush No Obama

  37. Factor 2 Issues favored the GOP • Economy Trumps Everything and GOP has the Edge • Health Care is a push • No One Cares about Afghanistan

  38. Midyears as Referendum on the Economy

  39. Factor 3 Mid Year Elections Serve as Referendums on the President • President Obama is not unpopular (e.g. Bush 2006) • But he is not popular either (e.g. Clinton 1998) • The Result is the Dems lose seats

  40. Factor 4: Midyear Elections favor the Outparty • Turnout decreases among president’s party • Bandwagon effect is less among independents • Angry voters more than satisfied voters

  41. The House Results • GOP Gets • 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) • 30 of 42 Tossups • 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

  42. The Senate Results • The Democrats Hold • The Tea Party takes 3 seats, but loses 3 other

  43. Looking Ahead 2012

  44. In The House • 435 House Seats • Many are held by rookies • Democrats need 46 seats to take it back

  45. In the Senate • 33 Senate Races • The Class of “2006” • The GOP needs 4 seats (51) • There are 10 Toss-ups

  46. What Can Happen? • Obama wins big • Obama has a personal victory • A Republican wins

More Related