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Congress II. 3/19/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form. Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: identify and explain the role of formal (congressional) institutions and their effect on policy.
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Congress II 3/19/2012
Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form • Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: • identify and explain the role of formal (congressional) institutions and their effect on policy. • to understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas. • have a better understanding of why our national government works and why the American system of government is unique.
Office Hours and Readings • Chapter 8 on Congress • Office Hours • Today 12-2 • Wednesday 10-2
The Three Things You Need Getting Elected
Name Recognition We Do not Vote for Nobodies
Name Recognition • To Be Known, is to be known favorably • Media focuses on known candidates • Means more money spent elswehere
Who Has Name Recognition • Incumbents • Lower Level office holders • Prominent people in the community
Actors • From the Love Boat • From the Dukes of Hazzard • Stuart Smalley
Athletes Good Bad
You need to raise and spend money • There is no public money available • It keeps getting more expensive • Winning a seat • 1.1 Million in the House • 6.5 Million in the Senate
Why So Expensive? • Television • Travel • The War Chest
Where You Get it • People • Pacs • Party/other
Money may not be the most important thing in a campaign, but it is a close second to what ever is
Incumbency • It is a great job, and you want to keep it • Incumbency gives you both money and name recognition
Why Do Incumbents Win?: Money • People don’t give money to losers • You want a Return on Investment
Why Do Incumbents Win? • Gerrymandering in the House • Name Recognition in House and Senate • Credit Claiming on bills
Why do incumbents win: Constituency Services • Helping out the people back home • Earmarks • Traditional Service
Why Incumbents Win: Homestyle • We vote for people like us • We vote for people we trust • You have to learn to match the district
You Can’t Beat Somebody with no body • Weak Challengers • People Who Spend their own money • They Run Unopposed
Why Else do you lose • Redistricting • National Trends and Coat-tails • Out of Touch/Too Old • First Re-election bid
The Real battles Open Seats
What Creates an Open Seat • Reapportionment in the House • Strategic Retirements – Win>Not Run>Lose • Ambition
Open Seat Elections • Home of the Real Fights • Parties and Pacs pour in money • Parties believe if they can win, they can keep the seat forever • Strategic Candidates
Factor 1: Who isn’t there No Bush No Obama
Factor 2 Issues favored the GOP • Economy Trumps Everything and GOP has the Edge • Health Care is a push • No One Cares about Afghanistan
Factor 3 Mid Year Elections Serve as Referendums on the President • President Obama is not unpopular (e.g. Bush 2006) • But he is not popular either (e.g. Clinton 1998) • The Result is the Dems lose seats
Factor 4: Midyear Elections favor the Outparty • Turnout decreases among president’s party • Bandwagon effect is less among independents • Angry voters more than satisfied voters
The House Results • GOP Gets • 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) • 30 of 42 Tossups • 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats
The Senate Results • The Democrats Hold • The Tea Party takes 3 seats, but loses 3 other
Looking Ahead 2012
In The House • 435 House Seats • Many are held by rookies • Democrats need 46 seats to take it back
In the Senate • 33 Senate Races • The Class of “2006” • The GOP needs 4 seats (51) • There are 10 Toss-ups
What Can Happen? • Obama wins big • Obama has a personal victory • A Republican wins