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ATM-552: CLIMATE CHANGE

ATM-552: CLIMATE CHANGE. Monday and Wednesday 2:45-4:05pm, ES B13. ATM 552: Today's topics. Introduction to the topic of climate change. Syllabus. Knowledge assessment. Research projects. Homework / Grades. IPCC, AR4, WG1, 2007. Climate Impacts and Adaptation. Source: IPCC AR5 WG2, 2014.

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ATM-552: CLIMATE CHANGE

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  1. ATM-552: CLIMATE CHANGE Monday and Wednesday 2:45-4:05pm, ES B13

  2. ATM 552: Today's topics Introduction to the topic of climate change Syllabus Knowledge assessment Research projects Homework / Grades

  3. IPCC, AR4, WG1, 2007

  4. Climate Impacts and Adaptation Source: IPCC AR5 WG2, 2014

  5. Some fundamental questions we will try to answer in this class: 1. How can we be certain that we are changing our climate? 2. How will climate change in the future? 3. How will climate change affect us? 4. What should we do about it? Anthropogenic vs. natural climate change? Spatiotemporal aspects, changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation? Environmental impacts? SLR?, extremes (droughts, floods, heatwaves), changes in the cryosphere, biosphere, etc? Reduce emissions (mitigation)? study impacts? adapt?

  6. Some logistics INSTRUCTOR Oliver ELISON TIMM (oelisontimm@albany.edu) (442-3584) Office: ES 316A Office Hours: Tue 10:00-11:00am, Wed 1:15-2:15pm (and by appointment*) * Or take your chance and stop by for short questions [‘open-door’-policy]

  7. Some logistics All course material, including class lectures and papers will be made available in electronic form (email, cloud-storage, web-pages) or via links to original sources.

  8. The student assessment Respond to the following 10 statements by indicating whether you agree or not. Explain the reasons for your answer. If you are not sure, rather than guessing, write ‘don’t know’. Note that this is not a quiz. There is no grade and you can take this survey anonymously. It is simply intended to find out how much you as a group already know about the topic of climate change.

  9. ATM 552: Evaluation Policies • ASSESSMENT & POLICIES • Research Proposal (20 percent) • Mid-term Exam (20 percent) • Oral presentation in class (20 percent) • Research or review paper (40 percent)

  10. ATM-552: Reading assignments Reading assignments The reading assignments are an integral part of the learning process in this course. Homework assignments typically will include reading 3-4 papers per week on a particular topic related to Climate Change. Papers will be discussed at the beginning of each class, with students leading the discussion (summarizing main results, methods and potential questions that may arise) – bring papers with you to class! Papers will be made available (in electronic form) a week before the in-class discussion – hard copies are available upon request.

  11. ATM-552: Reading assignments • Wednesday, 08/27/14: • Oreskes, Science, 2004 • Lean & Rind, Geophys. Res.Lett., 2008 • England et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014 We will discuss the papers at the beginning of the next class: Wednesdays: Discussion groups Mondays: Short PPT presentations or Discussion groups

  12. ATM-552: Your Research/Review Paper You will choose a research topic related to Climate Change. (During the first classes you will have time to find a research project you are interested in.) Get a pre-approval for your research idea from your instructor You will start with a scientific proposition (hypothesis) and present the key ideas in class and get feedback from your peer students You write a full written research proposal (4 pages single spaced 12-pt font size, with no more than 3 figures, plus additional reference list) The proposal will be reviewed by one of your peer students and the instructor

  13. ATM-552: Your Research/Review Paper Research phase 6-8 weeks of research include data collection and analysis, preparation of summary tables and figures, and drafting of the sections ‘introduction’, ‘data’, ‘methods’, and ‘results’. To the end of the research phase, you will give a 15-minute presentation (and get feedback from your peer students) You will finalize the research paper (‘abstract’, ‘summary’/’conclusion’) and submit it to a ‘formal’ review process (by one of your peer students, and optionally you can assign me for review) You will revise your paper and submit the final version for grading Note: we will adopt the AMS style guidelines. http://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/authors/journal-and-bams-authors/journal-and-bams-authors-guide/formatting/

  14. Topics chosen for Research Project in previous classes • Your own previous / current research related to climate change (thesis, field work) • • Climate Change and solar variability • Climate Change and energy (fossil fuels, renewable energy sources) • • Climate Change and glaciers • • The Kyoto Protocol (what, why, how?) • • The U.S. government policy on Climate Change: What is it? • • Climate Change and rising sea level • • Climate Change and extreme events (e.g. floods, droughts, heat waves) • • Climate Change and natural hazards

  15. Topics chosen for Research Project in previous classes • Climate Change and agriculture • Climate Change and human health • Climate Change and biodiversity • Climate Change in the Arctic / Tropics / New York State / Albany (or any other region) • The physics of the greenhouse effect • The global carbon cycle • Adaptation and/or mitigation of Climate Change • Future Climate Change scenarios

  16. The Research Project…something related to Climate Change

  17. ATM 552: Important Dates All homework assignments, project proposals, reports, papers, etc. have specific due dates.

  18. ATM 552: Important Dates Sep 15-17: Presenting research proposal idea in class 1 Oct 1: Proposal due! 8 15 Oct 8: Feedback to proposal due Oct 15: Mid-Term Exam Nov 10-17: Research presentations in class 10 12 17 19 Nov 19: Research paper due for review! 24 Nov 24: Peer review due 8 Dec 8: Research paper due for grading! 15 17

  19. Sep 15/17 Proposal outline presentation in class Oct 1 Written Proposal due Oct 8 Student’s feedback due Oct 15 Mid-Term Exam Nov 10-17 Research result presentations in class Nov 19 Research paper due for peer review Nov 24 Peer-review due Dec 8 Final revised research paper due

  20. IMPORTANT WEB SITES These are sites which provide important information on topics covered in this class. Also many of the illustrations used in class are available at these sites. They can also provide you with additional material not covered in this class or give a different perspective from the one taught in class. Finally these sites can be an important resource of information for your individual presentations in the 2nd half of the semester.

  21. RECOMMENDED SUPPLEMENT IPCC (2013) “Climate Change 2013 – Summary for Policymakers” Available from http://www.climatechange2013.org/ Contains many figures and illustrations used in this class

  22. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science BasisWGI contribution to IPCC 5th Assessment Report 2214 pages 859 authors and editors from 39 nations 54,677 comments received 9200 cited papers 2 million GB of model data Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Written by scientists but approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by 300 government representatives from 113 nations

  23. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • 3000 scientists from more than 150 nations First Assessment Report (FAR), 1990 Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1995 Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001 Fourth Assessment report (AR4), 2007 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), 2013/14

  24. “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.” Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” Climate Change 1995 – The Second Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” Climate Change 2001 – The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC

  25. “The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.” Climate Change 2007– The Assessment Report 4 of the IPCC “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Climate Change 2013 – The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

  26. http://www.globalchange.gov/climate-change

  27. http://www.realclimate.org/

  28. How can we be certain that we are changing our climate?

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