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NAACP NATIONAL CIVIC ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM NPHC

NAACP NATIONAL CIVIC ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM NPHC. Leon Russell, Chairman – National Board of Directors Derrick Johnson, President and CEO. Context. 1. Rising New Majority by 2044. 2010: Majority of new births are people of color. 2032: Majority of people age 20-34 are people of color.

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NAACP NATIONAL CIVIC ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM NPHC

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  1. NAACP NATIONAL CIVIC ENGAGEMENT PROGRAMNPHC Leon Russell, Chairman – National Board of Directors Derrick Johnson, President and CEO

  2. Context

  3. 1. Rising New Majority by 2044 2010: Majority of new births are people of color 2032: Majority of people age 20-34 are people of color 2044: Majority of all Americans are people of color Source: Brookings Institute

  4. 2. Elections Are Racialized: Clinton and Trump, VA, NJ, AL Clinton Trump Source: National Exit Polls Racial and Economic Justice

  5. 3. 2018 Midterm Election Cycle Midterm turnout is consistently older, whiter, and more conservative than Presidential elections. • Increasing concentration of Democratic voters in urban areas. • Increased voter suppression in most Battleground States. • Strong(ish) economy expected to continue. • Progressive enthusiasm and engagement on the rise. • Trump, Republican disapproval is at an all time low.

  6. Control of the US Senate

  7. House of Representatives • Democrats need to pick up 24 seats, net, to reach 218. • DCCC has identified 79 pick-up opportunities; 42 stand out (Prior to Red to Blue Program Expansion) • Democrats lost the 42 districts by 13% in 2016, but are 1 point up in the current generic among registered voters. • Democrats lost the additional 37 districts by 20%, but trail in in the current generic among registered voters. • Districts fall into five groups determined by the most salient characteristics of each district. • Source: AFL-CIO Data and Analytics Department

  8. House of Representative (Key Districts)

  9. Governor’s Races • An energized Democratic base could turn out in record numbers, matched by a backlash among highly educated white women whose votes are usually Republican (See NJ, VA, AL). • Half of the 26 Republican-held seats are up for grabs. • A surge of Latino Voters that could swamp Republican candidates in battleground states like Florida and Colorado, put New Mexico’s governor’s race even further out of reach and make Arizona’s competitive. • States to watch: NV, WI, MN, CO, NY, PA, ME, CT, OH, MI, FL, NH, IL, MD, GA, SC.

  10. State Legislative Chambers These are the projected 17 battleground chambers in 2018. Democratic Party - Alaska House of Representatives Democratic Party - Colorado House of Representatives Republican Party - Colorado State Senate Democratic Party - Connecticut House of Representatives Democratic Party - Connecticut State Senate Democratic Party - Delaware State Senate Republican Party - Florida State Senate Democratic Party - Maine House of Representatives Republican Party - Maine State Senate Republican Party - Minnesota House of Representatives Democratic Party - Nevada State Senate Republican Party - NH House of Representatives Republican Party - NH State Senate Democratic Party - New Mexico House of Representatives Republican Party - New York State Senate Democratic Party - Washington House of Representatives Democratic Party - Washington State Senate • As of April 4, 2018: • There are 99 state legislative chambers throughout the United States. • 87 of them are holding general elections in 2018. • Republicans control 32 of the country's 50 state legislatures. • Democrats control 14 of the country's 50 state legislatures. • 4 legislatures are split between the parties. • Heading into the 2018 elections, Democrats control 10 battleground chambers and Republicans control seven.

  11. 5. The Billionaires Are On A Mission (To win and take us all out!) Racial and Economic Justice

  12. Meet Chuck & Dave Photo credit: kochnews.com, 2016

  13. The Kochs Have Been Organizing For 30 Years Committed $400 Million for 2018 Racial and Economic Justice

  14. Individual and Foundational Donors Americans for Prosperity Corporate Donors National Think Tanks Legislators Right Wing Media Outlets State Policy Network (SPN) Grassroots Groups Racial and Economic Justice

  15. Program Framework (NAACP Perspective)

  16. NAACP By The Numbers: • 2,200 Units that house our most dedicated volunteers. • 500 Youth and College units for members under the age of 25. • 47States where we have a field presence. • 1 Million activist who we can mobilize both online and offline. • 400k Followers on Twitter. • 500k Followers on Facebook. • 109Year old membership based advocacy organization.

  17. Long Term Strategic Imperatives: • 5-Year Game Plan: • We are preparing a strategic, cohesive 5-year civic engagement plan that will span the 2018 midterms, 2020 Census and presidential election, and subsequent redistricting. • Our ability to mobilize for these milestones will define the policy landscape for years to come. • Focus on infrequent voters: • A critical component of our civic engagement strategy is mobilizing infrequent voters – individuals who vote in presidential elections but don’t always show up for midterms. • We are employing grassroots activism – working with our 2,200 units and labor partners on the ground – and behavioral science research to make an impact come November. • This strategy is developed through a collaboration with GSSA and other partners.

  18. Theory of the Case Grow A Candidate & Operative Pipeline

  19. Our Civic Engagement Mission 1. PRODUCE WINNING OFFENSIVE AGENDA: Move from legislative and electoral defense to offense that produces key wins (Data driven program). 2. OPTIMIZE INCREASED CAPACITY OVER TIME: Use what we build cycle to cycle to win legislative breakthroughs and grow political power. 3. CREATE SUSTAINABLE MAJORITY: Develop long term structural and strategic advantages to sustain wins.

  20. A. CAPACITY STRATEGY: Develop Strategic Long-Term Data Driven Program Capable of Building Power.

  21. NAACP/Kellogg: Initiative for Civic Engagement A 501C3 Collaboration within the Framework of the NAACP Civic Engagement Program - CONFIDENTIAL AND NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION -

  22. Host: Data and Analytics Hub • 18 Month Funded Program: • Service Kellogg Anchor Groups • NAACP – Host Institution • Unidos (NCLR) – Fiscal Sponsorship • Advancement Project • Urban League (NUL) • Demos • APIAHF • NCAI • Faith In Action (PICO) • Race Forward (CSI) • Provide State Targeting for Infrequent Voters of Color. • Provide GIS Mapping of Infrastructure. • Utilize vendors of color to grow capacity. • Staffing: • Director • Other support staff TBD

  23. NAACP/GSSA: Initiative for Civic Engagement A 501C3 and 501C4 Collaboration within the Framework of the NAACP Civic Engagement Program - CONFIDENTIAL AND NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION -

  24. NAACP/GSSA: Initiative for Civic Engagement Description of Initiative: • Context • Erosion of voting rights • Redistricting and gerrymandering • Money in Politics • Community deficits: voter registration and turnout • Objective • Increase the political voice and influence of the African American community • Create parity in voter registration and voter turnout

  25. NAACP/GSSA: Initiative for Civic Engagement Phase I: Congressional Districts – Impact of Parity

  26. NAACP/GSSA: Initiative for Civic Engagement Phase I: State House Districts – Impact of Parity

  27. NAACP/GSSA: Initiative for Civic Engagement Phase I: Statewide – Final Priority Level *Check marks indicate that parity can change the outcome of at least one race. Voter registration efforts should be considered for races where parity can change the outcome of an election.

  28. 2018 CIVIC ENGAGEMENT BATTLEGROUND STATES We, the NAACP, are running program in ALL STATES where we have units and members. These states represent where we will have more dedicated funds available to support program. • Florida • Georgia • Ohio • Pennsylvania • North Carolina • Michigan • Wisconsin (Milwaukee) • Nevada (Las Vegas) • Minnesota (Twin Cities) • Missouri • Indiana • Tennessee • Connecticut • Alabama • Maryland

  29. B. 50 STATE STRATEGY: Create and Electoral and Legislative Approach In Every State Driven by an Agenda Capable of Delivering a Political Demand.

  30. C. TARGETED STRATEGY: Build Sustainable Legislative/Electoral Operation(s) in battleground states, able to move NAACP members and allies into action. Direct Voter Contact Programs

  31. NAACP/GSSA: Initiative for Civic Engagement Phase II: Community Organizing Tool – Modeling Data TREATMENT UNIVERSES 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 HIGH PROPENSITY, LIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN HIGH PROPENSITY, UNLIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN MODERATE PROPENSITY, UNLIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN MODERATE PROPENSITY, LIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTE PROPENSITY LOW PROPENSITY, LIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN LOW PROPENSITY, UNLIKELY AFRICAN AMERICAN AFRICAN AMERICAN PROBABILITY Note: Treatment universe definitions, such as the lower threshold for African American Probability scores, will likely vary by geography. Area does not correspond to number of registrants in cohort

  32. NAACP/GSSA: Initiative for Civic Engagement Phase II: TREATMENT UNIVERSE PROFILES FOR SELECTED GEOGRAPHY SAMPLE DATA 14% 18 • Consult with community organizers to determine relevant electoral, demographic, and geographic features of treatment universes • Create Community Organizing Tool that helps users select relevant geographies and view detailed profiles of African American treatment universes • Use the results of Phase I to suggest treatment goals for voter registration and turnout (e.g., achieving parity may be out of reach in a given geography, but realistic turnout goals for 2018 may include increasing African American turnout by ~3%) • Update data, goals and tools as voter files and models are refreshed

  33. Mobilization (GOTV)

  34. EVERYTHING BEGINS WITH MOBILIZATION

  35. Mobilization: Guidepost • How do we move our people? • Targeting -Using specific metrics to build the universe to mobilize by county/precincts. • Data Collection - Set up mechanisms to make asks of the targets to stand with you as a stakeholder (voter/volunteer/activist/member) and collect key information for future communications (Issue ID/Other key data points/Phone/Email). • Communication and Digital- Maximize electronic communication – Facebook, Email, Text Messages; Utilize direct Mail – Determine what type of mail program is useful; and Phone Banking - Run phone programs that target members and the general public. • Direct Voter Contact - Engage members and the general public through direct contact. • Ladder of Engagement - Build internal and external opportunities for activism and volunteerism. Examples, Ask contacts to volunteer to register a set number of new voters; Ask contacts to recruit friends & neighbors; Ask members to commit to walks, phone banking and GOTV efforts. • Investment Solicitation - Determine if a financial contribution/ask is essential and when.

  36. DOOR-TO-DOOR

  37. Data from the VAN and Voter Registration efforts define our universe …

  38. We will create blended walk list with our partners.

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