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CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations

CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations Antonio Bombelli Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Italy (Project Coordination Office) & Joseph Mutemi IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction Application, Kenya

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CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations

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  1. CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations Antonio Bombelli Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Italy (Project Coordination Office) & Joseph Mutemi IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction Application, Kenya EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavilion Durban, 28 November 2011

  2. CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations European Commission – FP7 3.5 M€ 48 months: 1 Oct 2010 – 30 Sep 2014 Key Words Climate Predictions; Climate Impacts; Vulnerabilities; Adaptation; Case Studies; Agriculture and Water Resources; Socio-economic analysis

  3. Why ClimAfrica? • Africa and Climate Change • key role in the global C-cycle and climate system •  50% of interannual variability of the global C-balance • > 50% of global fire emissions •  1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change • Weakness • most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability • population mostly depend on the rain fed rural sector • economy relies mainly on natural resources • less covered region by climate change studies • climate models developed outside the African context • current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with less focus to the shorter time frame direct linkage between climate, food production, economy and livelihood not enough or not adequate climate related info and products for Africa

  4. Why ClimAfrica? • Africa and Climate Change • key role in the global C-cycle and climate system •  50% of interannual variability of the global C-balance • > 50% of global fire emissions •  1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change • Weakness • most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability • population mostly depend on the rain fed rural sector • economy relies mainly on natural resources • less covered region by climate change studies • climate models developed outside the African context • current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with less focus to the shorter time frame Urgent need for the most up-to date and appropriate information and products, developed specifically for Africa, to better understand and predict climate change and its impacts in Sub- Saharan Africa for the next 10-20 years direct linkage between climate, food production, economy and livelihood not enough or not adequate climate related info and products for Africa

  5. ClimAfrica Objectives Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scale Assess climate impacts in water resources and agriculture sectors Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and population to inter-annual variations and decadal trends in climate Suggest and analyse new adaptation strategies suited to SSA Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system for food security, risk management, civil protection Analyse the economic impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures

  6. WP2 climate predictability and forecasts WP7 project management WP8 dissemination WP6 case studies WP1 past climate variability WP3 climate impacts WP5 Socio- economic implications WP4 Medium-term warning system vulnerability, adaptation

  7. Expected advancements Improved information and tools delivered on a time scale effective for timely adaptation actions: Improved climate predictions (seasonal/decadal) over Africa Assessment of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture in the next 10-20 years New adaptation strategies suited to Africa's needs Assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation An operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system Provision and training to local stakeholders of new modelling tools to improve climate risk analysis in water and agricultural sectors Enhanced scientific cooperation + capacity development

  8. Partnership • 18 institutions: • 9 Europe • 8 Africa • + FAO • Project coordinator: CMCC – Italy • www.cmcc-org • Local • case studies: • Burkina Faso • Congo • Ghana • Malawi   • Sudan • Togo • Kenya • Ethiopia • Tanzania

  9. Some of the outstanding achievements • Development of new methods and tools • Capacity building for climate scientist and users • Pioneering the Regional Climate Outlook forums (RCOFs): Total of 29. • Established good collaboration and networks with met services, research organizations, the Media • Education and awareness on climate risk management • Pilot application projects • Increasing number of new partnerships in operational climate science implications to welfare of whole region…

  10. LESSONS LEARNED. SUCCESS OF Regional Climate outlook forums and user experiences have been fulfilling… ICPAC Has more 10 years of operational climate service provision to Eastern Africa as a whole. Most recent example of regional vulnerability to climate extremes is failure of rainfall in large areas of Equatorial Eastern Africa since 2010 through most of 2011 with life threatening famine affecting large areas of the region….ICPAC GHACOFs 26, 27, & 28 provided the regional scale scope this climate anomaly, but there may have been minimal policies and actions to help communities within those areas cushion themselves against these conditions. Impacts have been quite catastrophic in several parts the Greater Horn…. NOW LEARNED. WHAT BETTER WAY THAN THE DECLARATION BY HEADS OF STATES Heads of States within Horn of Africa have taken a commitment on climate risk…eradication of drought emergencies, undertake investments, polices and programs that enable communities to have the necessary resilience to adverse climate extremes. ….

  11. Skill/Performance of the CMCC-model for Sub-Sahara Africa rainfall (Top row is the model rainfall pattern, and bottom row is Observations). The basic annual cycle with good spatial distribution is captured by the model. Model Obs

  12. ICPAC EXAMPLES…GHACOF29: FCST SOND2011 ICPAC RCC product, 3rd Sep 2011—Addressing GHA 2011 drought & Famine/Food Crisis …. October – December 2011 EA-Rainfall : After nearly 2years no rain in parts: Kenya, S. Somalia, NE. Tanzania & S. Ethiopia, rainfall as come as predicted. Prediction done & released on 3rd Sept.2011 as GHACOF29.

  13. CC..Examples from Kenya…Minimum Temperatures in some areas of Kenya may be suggesting climate change……

  14. SUMMARY ClimAfrica is the Scientific EU-Africa CC cooperation towards enabling of Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) to be able to predict skillfully climate variability, extremes, and changes on time scales ranging from seasonal to decadal. This improved climate predictions is the baseline information that the policy makers and people of SSA need for their socio-economic welfare, especially for rain-fed agriculture, water resources, environmental productivity and protection. ClimAfrica outputs will empower SSA and EU-as a major development and friend of SSA to undertake practical socio-economic mitigation and adaption strategies against adverse climate extremes and change in support of welfare of peoples of SSA.

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