Towards an integrated South African Green Economy Model (SAGEM)

1. Towards an integrated South African Green Economy Model (SAGEM)

2. SAGEM • Developed to explore the green economy transition for South Africa, with special attention given to the ability to meet low carbon growth, resource efficiency, and pro-job development targets • Utilized system dynamics following the T21 framework • The system dynamics approach • allows for the clarification of the endogenous structure of a particular system of interest; • enables the identification of the interrelationships of different elements of the system being in investigated; • allows simulating and exploring changes in the system for different alternatives.

3. Background to SAGEM • Key drivers of a green economy in South Africa, as represented in SAGEM, are stocks and flows of natural resources, capital and labour, that are important in any long-term economic model • Three key factors transform natural resources into added economic value: • the availability of capital (which accumulates through investments and declines with depreciation) • labour (which follows the south African demographic evolution, especially the age structure, and labour force participation rates) • stocks of natural resources (which accumulate with natural growth – when renewable – and decline with harvest or extraction) • SAGEM accounts for both monetary and physical variables representing each sector

4. Background to SAGEM • Analysis focused on the transition towards a green economy in South Africa, characterised by high resource efficiency and a low-carbon intensity, assessing the needs for a short- to medium-term transition and evaluating the impacts of a longer-term green economic development • Dynamic complexity of the social, economic, and environmental characteristics of the South African context with the goal of evaluating whether green investments can create synergies and help move toward various green economy goals • Emphasis put on stocks because they define the state of the system, as highlighted by projections of many key indicators for sustainability, categorised into economic, social and economic indicators

5. Background to SAGEM • Adopting an integrated approach focused on the interaction of stocks and flows across sectors, the South African green economy modelling process examines the hypothesis that a correct management of natural resources does not necessarily imply accepting lower economic growth going forward • Rather, it explores the question of whether equal or higher growth could be attained with a more sustainable, equitable and resilient economy, in which natural resources would be preserved through more efficient use

6. Relations between economic growth and natural resources

7. SAGEM Boundary • Key variables that were considered essential in catalyzing the green economy agenda in South Africa were calculated endogenously in the model • These include, among others, the variables of the prioritized areas, that is, natural resource management, agriculture, energy and transport

8. SAGEM time horizon • Developed to evaluate the impact of green economy investment on the medium- to long-term environmental, economic and social development issues • Given the data availability at a national scale, the time horizon for the model begins in 2001 and extends to 2030. This is in line with the current NDP time horizon • The simulation could also be easily extended further in the future if needed • The historical trends from 2001 to 2010 were utilised to ensure that the model replicates the characteristics of the behaviour of the issues investigated in SAGEM

9. SAGEM scope • SAGEM represents the South African national environmental, social and economic sectors without disaggregation at provincial or cities level • In a broad sense, SAGEM was divided into fourteen sub-sectors

10. SAGEM modules

11. Social sphere: Population

12. Data sources of SAGEM modules

13. SAGEM scenarios defined • Two types of scenarios were developed for the SAGEM analysis • The first one is the business as usual scenarios, which assumes a general continuation on the current investment in the economy in the areas of natural resource management, energy sectors, and agriculture and transport sector. These scenarios were defined as BAU and BAU2%. The BAU2% allocates an additional 2% of GDP investments to the current situations • The second type of scenario is the green economy scenarios, which assumes an active government intervention in the identified four sectors in order to encourage shifts towards low carbon, resource efficient and pro-employment development. Two green economy scenarios are defined as GETS and GE2%

14. Business as usual scenario Key sectors employment in the BAU scenario Comparison of real GDP in BAU with data Comparison of population in BAU with data Selected land use changes in the BAU scenario

15. Challenges • The modelling process does not address the sources of funding for the green economy, but assumes an allocation of 2% of the GDP is made • While sources of funding, such as the reallocation of funds, may be available in the medium- to long-term, in the short-term, the government needs to embark on strategies to provide resources for the green economy • The specific responsibilities of the different agents in transitioning the green economy were also not explicitly addressed • However, the key contribution of SAGEM is its dynamic nature, cross-sectoral analysis and endogenous feedback loops within the various sectors, sub-sectors and modules

16. Key messages • The green economy contributes to the electricity diversification mix • With a green investment targeted to expand renewable electricity generation (GETS), the share of renewable energy would reach 24.4% by 2030 in the GETS scenario and 16% in the GE2% scenario. A more aggressive green economy investment intervention than GETS and GE2% would be required to achieve the stipulated target in the NDP (of 33% by 2030).

17. Questions and comments