WIOD Consortium Meeting Sevilla, 25 – 26, May, 2011

1. Trade Embodied CO2 Emissions with Private Consumption Feedback EffectsKurt KratenaIgnazio MongelliGerhard Streicher WIOD Consortium Meeting Sevilla, 25 – 26, May, 2011

2. Trade embodied CO2 emissions Literature and research questions • Extensive literature, using multi-regional input-output models (e.g. OECD: Ahmad, Wyckoff, 2003 and Nakano, Okamura, Sakurai, Suzuku, Tojo, Yamano, 2009) • National trade emission balances in a multiregional framework (Serrano, Dietzenbacher, 2008) • Motivation: shifting from production-based to consumption-based CO2 accounting  why leaving out ‘induced’ consumption? • Production for exports generates income  energy use and CO2 in households and production • Extending the static IO model to a type II model with a calibrated consumption block: Consumption patterns are very different across countries, both in a static as well as in a dynamic perspective

3. Trade embodied CO2 emissions Main building blocks of the extended model • Multi-regional input-output model based on WIOD dataset • Dynamic consumption model (durables/non-durables) for EU countries (Kratena, Mongelli, Wueger) • Dynamic consumption model for China (Cuihong, et al., 2010) • Simple dynamic models (calibration) for other WIOD countries •  Type II input-output model with endogenous and exogenous private consumption and dynamic reaction patterns in consumption • Linking environmental satellite accounts of WIOD to energy use in consumption and production

4. Trade embodied CO2 emissions Model applications • Calculation of time series of ‘augmented’ national CO2 trade balances (exports and imports) • Calculation of time series of ‘augmented’ bilateral CO2 trade balances, e.g. China vis á vis EU • …………………………………………………. • ……………..