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Hong Kong Baptist University 1998 Superannuation Fund. 5 September 2003. Contents. Portfolio Size Summary Performance Summary Asset Allocation Performance Review Current Investment Strategy and Market Outlook. Portfolio Size Summary. Portfolio Size Summary.
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Hong Kong Baptist University1998 Superannuation Fund 5 September 2003
Contents • Portfolio Size Summary • Performance Summary • Asset Allocation • Performance Review • Current Investment Strategy and Market Outlook Hong Kong Baptist University
Portfolio Size Summary * The exchange rate is the deal FX rate, which is 7.7993 HKD/USD as of 31 July 2003. + The exchange rate is based on the spot rate from Bloomberg, which is 7.7996 HKD/USD as of 31 July 2003. Hong Kong Baptist University
Performance Summary As at 31 July 2003 Remarks: 1. Performance figures are net of 1.15% management fee and after 0.75% rebate. 2. Citigroup WGBI - 18 US $ Hdgd 3. Performance figures are net of 1.15% management fee and after 0.70% rebate. 4. 70% Citigroup WGBI - 18 US $ Hdgd and 30% MSCI World (net) Hong Kong Baptist University
No. of Shares Cumulative Alloted Shares Unit Price Alloted Shares Cumulative Real Return* MLIIF US Dollar Global Bond, as at 29 July 2003 • Assume USD1,000 contribution on every 29th of the month Cumulative Capital Employed Cumulative Invested Assets Unit Price Source: Internal * Excess returns are calculated net of management fee and before rebate. Hong Kong Baptist University
No. of Shares Cumulative Capital Employed Cumulative Alloted Shares Unit Price Alloted Shares Cumulative Invested Assets Unit Price Cumulative Real Return* Stable Fund, as at 29 July 2003 • Assume USD1,000 contribution on every 29th of the month Source: Internal * Excess returns are calculated net of management fee and before rebate. Hong Kong Baptist University
Cumulative Real Return* As at 29 July 2003 • Assume USD1,000 contribution on every 29th of the month Stable Fund MLIIF US Dollar Global Bond Source: Internal * Excess returns are calculated net of management fee and before rebate. Hong Kong Baptist University
MLIIF US Dollar Global Bond Fund By Region, as at 31 July 2003 * Citigroup WGBI - 18 US $ Hdgd Source: Internal; Datastream Hong Kong Baptist University
Stable Fund By Asset Class, as at 31 July 2003 * 70% Citigroup WGBI - 18 US $ Hdgd and 30% MSCI World (net) Source: Internal; Datastream Hong Kong Baptist University
Stable Fund By Region, as at 31 July 2003 * 70% Citigroup WGBI - 18 US $ Hdgd and 30% MSCI World (net) Source: Internal; Datastream Hong Kong Baptist University
Stable Fund By Sector, as at 31 July 2003 * Allocation only includes the equity portion of Stable Fund. + MSCI World (net) Source: Internal; Datastream Hong Kong Baptist University
Performance Review MLIIF US Dollar Global Bond Fund
MLIIF US Dollar Global Bond Fund • Our overweight duration position in euro-zone bonds benefited from an extended rally, although this was partially offset by market sell-offs in March and June. • We remained underweight duration in US dollar bloc bonds, which detracted as US bond yields declined beyond expectations. • Being overweight duration in corporate bonds also benefited, these were attractive given positive issuance and low government bond yields. Hong Kong Baptist University
Performance Review Stable Fund
Stable Fund • The fund slightly underperformed the benchmark for the quarter. The performance suffered due to the defensive stance taken. Over the quarter, we significantly underweighed bonds as we believed the bond valuation is very expensive. • The overall bond investment performance is the same as benchmark. • On equity side, our underweight in information technology detracted, as many of these shares rallied strongly in the second quarter, as investors sought high earnings leverage into the anticipated economic recovery. • In consumer discretionary, the media segment was impacted by similar trends. Our holdings in high quality publishing companies like Reed Elsevier lagged. • Positive contribution came from financials, our holdings in Banca Intessa , BNP Paribas and US corporate and municipal bond insurer, AMBAC Financial outperformed towards end June. Hong Kong Baptist University
Performance Review Major Markets Summary
Major Markets Summary Hong Kong Baptist University
What We Said And What Happened Source: MLIM Hong Kong Baptist University
Markets Have Come A Long Way Source: Bloomberg Hong Kong Baptist University
Global recovery to consolidate World GDP Growth % 5 Actual Forecast 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 World GDP Growth Source: OEF / MLIM Hong Kong Baptist University
Deflation risk is low, particularly in the US & UK Probability of deflation in 2004 % 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 US G7 Germany UK Eurozone Japan Source: Datastream; MLIM Hong Kong Baptist University
High operational leverage is boosting earnings Real earnings per share, MSCI world 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 82 84 86 88 92 94 96 98 00 02 80 90 Trend Earnings Actual Earnings Source: Datastream; MLIM Hong Kong Baptist University
Global equities close to fair value in aggregate MSCI world, price to normalised earnings 40 35 30 25 20 Average 15 10 5 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Source: MLIM; MSCI Hong Kong Baptist University
For the rest of the year... Source: MLIM Hong Kong Baptist University
Conclusions • Extreme risk aversion has subsided • Short term market direction now dependent on economic follow through • Global equity valuations no longer cheap but opportunities exist in UK • Bonds are still expensive, particularly investment grade Hong Kong Baptist University
The following notes should be read in conjunction with the attached document: 1. Issued by Merrill Lynch Investment Managers Limited, regulated by The FSA and a subsidiary of Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. Merrill Lynch Investment Managers is a trading name of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers Limited. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. and its subsidiaries are known as the Merrill Lynch Group. 2. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time. 3. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by Merrill Lynch Investment Managers for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the Merrill Lynch Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. 4. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any Merrill Lynch Group funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. 5. This material is for distribution to Intermediate Customers (as defined by The FSA Rules). Unless otherwise specified, all information contained in this document is current as at February 2003.