Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 April 17, 2012

2. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global • Interesting new document? • OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

3. What is in this lecture? • A story on climate change science to a group of professionals who want to think about investing themselves or money into climate change. • I don’t plan to give all of this lecture. • Thinking about the class, what learned, effectiveness, the future …

4. We the People • Tim Flannery, The Future Eaters, • Humans are a species prone to ruining ecosystems and destroying their own futures

5. I want to talk about the class and future • Strong evidence • Predictions are unique opportunity • Ambiguity • No simply structured solutions • Many competing issues • Many competing uncertainties • Indirect relation between cause and effect • Existing resources are enormous • It is how we use these resources this knowledge.

6. I want to talk about the class and future • What did you learn? • Effectiveness of • Lecture • Readings • Discussion classes • Projects • How would you change class? • I am thinking radical revision

7. Start of Lecture Material

8. Starting point: Scientific foundation (1) • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass. • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

9. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty: • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. (Greenhouse gases) • Primary gases added to the atmosphere: • Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide, Methane, CFCs • Primary natural greenhouse gases: • Water, Carbon Dioxide

10. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty: • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because of the continued increase of gases that hold heat close to the surface. • Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. • Sea level will rise. • The weather will change. • This is unprecedented opportunity.

11. Some useful similes? • Greenhouse gas increase in the atmosphere is like adding blankets to the surface of the Earth. • Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is like closing a window that has been cracked open to help cool an overheated room. • Model projections are like a telescope looking at deep space, we are constantly improving the focus.

12. The basic science-based knowledge • The mechanism of greenhouse gas warming is well known and has, conceptually, been known for about 2 centuries. • The calculations of heating due to carbon dioxide can be calculated with great accuracy.

13. Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming • Just temperature • Broader Impacts • Fingerprinting to attribute warming • The whole problem in three slides • What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? • Climate Case Studies • Summary and Commentary • Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

14. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

15. Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php.

16. Global Annual Average Differences from 20th Century Mean Rood: Just Temperature

17. Global August Average Differences from 20th Century Mean Rood: Just Temperature

18. Highs versus Lows Rood: Just Temperature

19. Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University

20. NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010

21. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

22. Temperature Water Precipitation Evaporation Humidity Air Composition Air quality Aerosols Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate What parameters/events do we care about?

23. Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming • Just temperature • Broader Impacts • Fingerprinting to attribute warming • The whole problem in three slides • What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? • Climate Case Studies • Summary and Commentary • Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

24. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

25. Observed Global Temperature Differences(1951 – 2011) – (1951-1980) from GISS

26. Remember the simile • If I put blankets on the surface, then it has to get a little bit cooler at some distance above the surface.

27. Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php.

28. Attribution: Fingerprinting • If you use the basic science of • Warming due to greenhouse gases • Warming due to changes in the Sun • Warming due to changes in ozone • Warming due to changes in aerosols • Warming due to changes in volcanic activity • Warming due to changes in ocean-atmosphere-land • They each have a different pattern or fingerprint. • Using this approach far less than 1% chance of an alternative explanation of warming.

29. Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming • Just temperature • Broader Impacts • Fingerprinting to attribute warming • The whole problem in three slides • What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? • Climate Case Studies • Summary and Commentary • Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

30. Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Validation Consequences Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Summary Points: Science Correlated Observations CO2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Theory / Empirical Evidence CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Prediction Earth Will Warm Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Attribution Observations CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels

31. IPCC projections for the next 100 years. Averaging Time Span Size of Projected Differences Size of Observed Differences

32. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY LAW CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY INTEGRATED IIMPACTS Fragmented Policy PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE ? OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

33. Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming • Just temperature • Broader Impacts • Fingerprinting to attribute warming • The whole problem in three slides • What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? • Climate Case Studies • Summary and Commentary • Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

34. Thinking about the problem: Uncertainty • Thinking about uncertainty: • On time lengths of 10s of years, our ability to represent the oceanic variability, for example, drives the problem. • On time lengths of 50 years, what we call “model uncertainty” drives the problem. • On time lengths of 100 years, what we call “scenario uncertainty” drives the problem. • On time lengths of 1000s of years, things like the interaction of ice-ocean-land-air drive the problem.

35. IPCC projections for the next 100 years.

36. Thinking about the problem: Uncertainty • There are a lot of uncertainties – but • That the Earth will warm and sea level will rise is of little doubt. • The predictions have been quite stable for more than 20 years. • On regional and local scales, the specifics of how will temperature and rain change in my back yard are difficult to know. • On regional and local scales, expert interpretation and guidance can help a lot.

37. How to use the information • Are the underlying regional and local mechanisms of heat and water transport represented? • Are model projections consistent with these mechanisms? • Do the observations provide an emerging signal consistent with projections and mechanisms? McKenney et al., 2011, Global Change Biology

38. What most worry about • Storage of water in snow and ice • Changes in extreme weather • Sea level rise • Abrupt climate change

39. Storage of water in snow and ice • For example Barnett et al., 2005: Impact Warming Water Resources in Snow Dominated Regions “With more than one-sixth of the Earth’s population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability—predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions—are likely to be severe.”

40. Changes in extreme weather Link

41. Changes in extreme weather • Convincing trends in precipitation that comes in most intense events. • Floods, droughts, and heat waves – evolving in a warming world • Hurricanes? • Tornadoes?

42. Projected Sea Level Rise for end of 21st Century Thanks to Jim McCarthy Rahmstorf 2010

43. Sea Level Rise “On the basis of calculations presented here, we suggest that an improved estimate of the range of sea level rise to 2100 including increased ice dynamics lies between 0.8 and 2.0 meters [31 – 78 inches].” Pfeffer et al. 2008 Thanks to Jim McCarthy

44. Sea level rise is NOT constant(The earth is not round.) Thanks to Jeremy Bassis

45. Abrupt Climate Change • Lot’s of evidence of significant shifts over decades to centuries. • Internal dynamics of ocean-ice-land-atmosphere • Volcanoes • We have developed our society in a period of stable and “temperate” climate. • “Warm” cycle of the ice ages

46. Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming • Just temperature • Broader Impacts • Fingerprinting to attribute warming • The whole problem in three slides • What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? • Climate Case Studies • Summary and Commentary • Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

47. Climate Case Studies? • Thames Barriers // Adaptation in the U.K. • Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011 • Russian heat wave and drought 2010 • The Arab Spring • The 2011 Japanese earthquake • The Texas drought Markets, Commodities, Energy

48. Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming • Just temperature • Broader Impacts • Fingerprinting to attribute warming • The whole problem in three slides • What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? • Climate Case Studies • Summary and Commentary • Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

49. Some Points • Science-based conclusions • The surface of the Earth has warmed and this warming is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. CO2 is most important. • The Earth will continue to warm. • The concept of “stabilization” of CO2 is challenged by the consideration of ocean-land-atmosphere time scales • Carbon dioxide does not go away • Accumulated carbon dioxide is important • 1 trillion tons  440 ppm

50. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL We arrive at levels of granularity Need to introduce spatial scales as well WEALTH Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.