Building a Picture of U.S. Geosciences Human Resources

1. Building a Picture of U.S. Geosciences Human Resources Christopher M. Keane American Geological Institute September 2008

2. Bad Data, Poor Communication, Vacuous Policy • US Government thinks there are 5,568 geoscientists working in oil and gas (2006) • Reality is closer to 80,000 • USG thinks there are 1,502 geoscience faculty (2006) • Reality is about 14,000

3. Communicating the State of the Geosciences Frequent Currents Formal Report

4. What Do We Know

5. Where we are today… • 50% of geoscience highest degree earners do NOT work as geoscientists • 50% of working geoscientists do NOT have their highest degree in geosciences • Functionally no unemployment of MS & Ph.D.s • Rapid new hire demand • Employer dissatisfaction with new hires

6. The Enrollment Rollercoaster1955-2005 40000 35000 Undergraduate 30000 25000 20000 Majors 15000 Graduate 10000 5000 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1991 1993

7. Newly Minted Geoscientists 8000 7000 6000 B.S. 5000 4000 3000 M.S. 2000 1000 Ph.D. 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995

8. Female Geoscience Enrollment and Degrees 1974-2004 50 45 40 Enrolled 35 30 Percent Female Graduated 25 20 15 10 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year

9. Government 18% Petroleum 43% Academia 17% Exec. Management Mining 1% 12% Environmental 8% Other Services 1% US GeoscienceEmployment 1986 Other Academic Retired/Unemployed 5% 7% 10% Government Environmental 12% 7% 2005 Mining 9% Petroleum 50% NSF/AGI/BLS

10. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Intention Rate 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% K-12 Other Mining Federal Academia High Tech Petroleum State/Local Environmental General Business Continue Education Outside of Geoscience Student Attitudes and Careers2005 Student Advisor AGI

11. Mean Salaries2005 • Geologists • Petroleum $107K • Mining $69K • Finance $84K • Consulting $68K • Academia $58K • Government • Federal $86K • State $51K • Local $62K • Hydrologists • Consulting $65K • Academia $57K • Government • Federal $75K • State $52K • Local $63K BLS

12. Internal Challenges

13. Attrition Math • Attrition Math • 340,000 Intro Geo Students • 6,000 New Geo Majors Per Year • 2,700 New Geo BS Degrees Per Year • 13% of BS geology recipients go on to a career in the geosciences

14. What about these BS New Hires? • Substantial hiring of new geology/env. science BS recipients • What are their REAL future prospects? • Professional geoscientist? • Starbucks Barista? • Wal-Mart Greeter? • Is the profession serving them honestly?

15. Student Interest vs. Opportunity • Hostility towards private sector • Source of bulk of opportunities • “Environmental Awareness” • Student interest declines precipitously • Preference for government • Little to no hiring growth • 29% of students intend to look at “non-traditional” careers

16. Race and Gender – the future? • Gender • Females now dominate at the university • Geoscience second at attracting women • Industry discontinuing female preferences • Race • Minorities tend not to move for college • Few geo programs near minority areas • Most come through Community Colleges • Lack of cultural continuity

17. US Departmental Inbalance? • There are 602 BS-granting geo departments • Physics has fewer than 300…. • Chemistry has 1100… • Average of <5 grads per year per department • There are 379 MS-granting geo departments • 75% of MS degrees come from 10 programs • Average of 1 grad per year per department • There are 268 Ph.D.-granting geo departments • 58% of new Ph.D.s go into a Post Doc…. • Average of 1 grad per year per department

18. External Challenges

19. Why Do Students Choose a Field? • Self-Efficacy • Work towards tangible success • Make the class attractive and applied • Outcome Expectations • Promote rewards of the success • Social & Intellectual Standing • Interest • Align with interests and currency • Be innovative • Make success attainable Akbulut & Looney, ACM Communications, October 2007

20. Top Students, Smart Choices Top students choose certainty • Medicine, Law, and Business • ~17% STEM BS grads go to professional school • High entrance requirements • Fixed exit from graduate school • High completion rate • High economic return • Science & Engineering • ~10% STEM BS grads continue in STEM areas • Lower entrance requirements • Vague completion timeframe • Low graduation rates • Unattractive earning potential Zumeta & Raveling, 2002

21. Throwing the happy grenade What's our challenge? Apologies to EA

22. Exceptionalism • Our supply issues are not unique • Lagging math skills • Challenge in recruiting women and minorities • High attrition rates • Limited pool with leadership potential • Our demand issues are not unique • Exiting workforce and leadership • Concerns about “reality knowledge” in new students • Disconnect from societal context

23. The "Odd Duck" in STEM • In STEM, geoscience is recognized for: • Bucking current administration trend on campus • Beating selves with a “Klingon Pain Stick” by publicly bemoaning our “issues” • We attract students because of context, we shed the best because of #1 and #2

24. Where does geoscience really fit in? • Geoscience-related activities account for 0.22% of the US GDP in 2007. • Less than bowling alley operations • Less than 1 month of Big 3 car sales • Secondary economic contributions are immense • Take on the BASF marketing approach?

25. Uncle Sam is investingso why don't we see it? Souce: NSF SRS

26. Key Cooperative Issue • Timely and transparent communications: • The profession and policy makers need to work with knowledge of REALITY, particularly from the private sector. • Broaden our horizons • Industry can bring the wholistic view of geoscience’s role to academia, government, and public • Focus on the future • Stop fighting the past – everyone else is already fighting for the future. Academia needs to help raise STEM in total to help itself.

27. Becoming CompetititveAGI's Workforce Initiative

28. Improve our Intelligence Portfolio • US Government data collection is modeled after manufacturing • Working with Labor/Commerce reform efforts • Track economic indicators and analyze for potential leading indicators • Rapid information dissemination

29. Engage at the Decision Point • K-10 • Covered by AGI Curricula • Majors and Grad Students • Covered by Societies and Departments • Career Decision Point is 11th grade to Sophomore year! • We have a vacuum

30. Engage the Audience Correctly • Immerse in current networking methods • Facebook, etc. • Communicate relevantly • Use social context • Avoid subdisciplines and industry boundaries • Recognize importance of parents • Hit their need to succeed • Engage as a professional from day 1, not after the Ph.D.

31. Conclusion • AGI leverages its strengths • Wide and deep K-12 presence • Mass media experience • Popular communications • History of data collection/analysis • Societies leverage their strengths • Bring the profession to the student • Key to link students to their future • Departments • “Set the hook” on interested students