Jocelyn Mailhot, George Issac and Charles Lin Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate

1. Numerical Weather and Environmental Prediction and Nowcasting for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics Jocelyn Mailhot, George Issac and Charles Lin Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate November 16, 2009

2. Olympics: Feb 12-28, 2010 Paralympics: Mar 12-21, 2010 The Meteorological Service of Canada of Environment Canada has the mandate and contractual obligation to provide weather support and services for the safety and security of the public and the effective and efficient operation of the games. The issues include: • Event conditions and safety for public, television and competitors • Venue operations for the public • Support to essential federal services primarily security • Transportation issues for VANOC

3. Whistler/Blackcomb Area Sites

4. EC activities related to VO2010 • Experimental numerical prediction system with 3 components • REPS - Regional Ensemble Prediction System (lead M. Charron) • high-resolution numerical prototype (lead J. Mailhot) • GEM-LAM model cascade down to 1 km (15km/2.5km/1km); • improved physics • land surface modeling and assimilation system at microscales (100 m) – (lead S. Bélair) • Science and Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) A World Weather Research Program Project (lead G. Issac)

5. Forecasting challenges • Some of the Olympic events have extremely sensitive thresholds for decision: (Courtesy of C. Doyle) 2010 Sports/Weather Threshold matrix;Red text = Critical Decision pointOrange text = Significant decision pointGreen text = Factor to consider

6. Production of high-resolution forecast • 3 self-nested LAM integrations twice daily from 0600 and 1800 UTC GEM Regional forecasts: • LAM-15km → 2.5km → 1km 15 km Daily Nesting Strategy 2.5 km 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z 00Z R1 R1 R2 R1 R2 15 km – 20 h 15 km GEM LAM Whistler 3h GEM LAM 2.5 km – 17 h 2.5 km GEM LAM Vancouver 2h GEM LAM 1.0 km 1.0 km – 15 h GEM LAM GEM LAM 1 km

7. New features and products • Improved physics: • geophysical fields (orography, surface roughness,…) using new GenPhysX and database at 90-m res; • CCCmarad radiation scheme (solar + infrared); • Milbrandt-Yau double-moment bulk microphysics (with a prognostic snow/liquid ratio for snow density); • New model diagnostic outputs: • visibility reduction due to hydrometeors (fog, rain, and snow); • cloud base, melting level, snow base; • solid-to-liquid ratio for snow density; • diagnostics of surface wind gusts and wind variances (speed + direction); • Customized output package: • based on Olympic forecasters feedback (products, display format,…); • comprehensive list of 2D maps, time series at stations, vertical soundings and cross-sections; • easy display (jpeg images with MetViewer).

8. Customized output package List of model outputs (2D maps, time series at stations, vertical soundings and cross-sections): PLAN MAPS: • Screen-level potential temperature θ • Screen-level relative humidity (relative to liquid phase) • 10-m winds • Wind gusts (gust estimates, minimum and maximum values) • Standard deviations of 10-m wind speed and direction • Accumulated precipitation types (liquid/freezing/snow/frozen) • Precipitation accumulation (liquid / solid / total) • Precipitation rate (solid / liquid / total) • Snow/liquid ratio {S2L} • Cloud cover (high/ mid/ low + total) • Cloud base height • Visibility (through fog, rain, snow, plus total) • Freezing level (m - 0°C isotherm level) • Snow level (m – lowest level with non-zero snow rate) • Wind chill factor

9. Wind forecast at VOH, 1643m, top of 2010 Men’s downhill 15 March 23 UTC to 16 March 14 UTC 15/23Z run • Estimated wind gust, • maximum and minimum gust, • surface (10m) wind speed +/- 1 std dev • surface (10m) wind directn +/- 1 std dev See poster by A. Giguère et al.: 3D-100-A9.3 “In-situ evaluation of the GEM-LAM 1.0km model in preparation for the 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games”

10. Verifications forVO2010 • Olympic Autostation Network (OAN) consists of: • about 40 standard and special surface observing sites (hourly or synop available on GTS); • (relatively) large number of surface stations, • concentrated in small region; • Verifications based on a set of 10 cases (winter 2008); • representative of “bad” weather conditions for the area; • frontal passages, heavy snow, change of PCP phases, valley clouds, strong wind gusts,…

11. Evaluation – Near-surface winds and temperature Average of 10 Cases REG-15km 2.5 km 1 km Wind Speeds (10 m) Temperature (2 m) RMS C kts BIAS C kts Significant improvements at 1 km for winds and temperatures (also 2.5 km)with respect to operational regional REG-15km model

12. Science and Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) – A World Weather Research Programme ProjectbyGeorge A. Isaac 1, S. Bélair 2, A. Bott 3, B. Brown 4, M. Charron2, S. G. Cober1, C. Doyle5, W. F. Dabberdt 6, D. Forsyth,7, G. L. Frederick 6, I. Gultepe 1, P. Joe1, T. D. Keenan8, J. Koistinen9, J. Mailhot 2, M. Mueller 10, R. Rasmussen 4, R. E. Stewart11, B. J. Snyder 5 and Donghai Wang121 Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada2 Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada3 University of Bonn, Germany4 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA5 Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada6 Vaisala, Louisville, Colorado, USA7 National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma, USA8 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia9 Finish Meteorological Institute, Finland10 University of Basel, Switzerland11 University of Manitoba, Manitoba, Canada12 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China

13. Main Goals of SNOW-V10Related to Nowcasting in Complex Terrain (Developed at March 08 Workshop) To improve our understanding and ability to forecast/nowcast low cloud, and visibility; To improve our understanding and ability to forecast precipitation amount and type; To improve forecasts of wind speed, gusts and direction; To develop better forecast system production system(s). Assess and evaluate value to end users; To increase the capacity of WMO member states (Training component).

14. Builds on Existing EC R&D Projects: High Resolution Modelling, CAN-Now, and FRAM Canadian Airport Nowcasting Project (CAN-Now) Fog Remote Sensing And Modeling project (FRAM)

15. Currently have a good array of equipment on Whistler at Creekside at ARQB, VOA, VOL, and TFL with plans for RND. Harvey’s Cloud Most of SNOW-V10 data from instruments are now being displayed on Web site (http://www.snow-v10.ca). Model data is now showing up.

16. SNOW V10 Venue Forecast:Whistler Creekside Downhill/Slolam/Giant Slolam Pig Alley/Mid Station/Timing Flats Click on box would give reason for alert and indication of confidence (from forecaster or verification scores) in forecast. All boxes would likely contain a range of values or most likely value. Prototype Product Under Discussion

20. VOA Precip Graphs show value of 1 min data in complex terrain where conditions change rapidly VOA Vis VOL Precip VOL Vis

23. Examples of Products from Whistler C-Band Doppler Radar on March 23rd

24. Participating Groups • Observing Systems and Associated Nowcast Systems • EC Region OAN Sites • EC Research Sites • UBC (McKendry) and U. Manitoba (Stewart) • NCAR WSDDM System + (Rasmussen) • BOM STEPS System (Seed) • NSSL Radar (Forseyth) • FMI (Koistinen) • Modeling Systems • EC Research Models • WDT (Carpenter) • China (Donghai Wang) • Austria INCA (Haiden) • Germany (Bott) • Switzerland (Mueller) • NOAA and UK Met Office • Verification • EC Team • NCAR (Brown) “Need for formal participant agreement”

25. Products During Olympics Each group will produce a Table showing 24 hour forecast of significant variables for main venue sites (hourly intervals and 10 to 15 min intervals in first two hours). Similar to what forecasters produce. A Research Support Desk will be run during Olympics and Paralympics (virtual and on-site). These products lead to a common verification strategy.

26. Summary The Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games provides a unique opportunity for international collaboration on the science of winter nowcasting in complex terrain. A team of scientists has agreed to participate in the project and the WMO/WWRP has endorsed SNOW-V10 as a project. Representatives from Canada, USA, China, Switzerland, Finland, Germany, Austria, and Australia are so far involved. A DRAFT science plan has been developed and can be found on the Web site: http://www.snow-v10.ca/. Following a successful Workshop in March/09 in Whistler another is planned for the Fall of 09 in Toronto.