Mining the Possibilities a presentation to Amex

1. Mining the Possibilities a presentation to Amex

2. Agenda • Who Is FOCUS: PRODUCTIVITY, INC • What We’ve Done Together • GoldMiner & MindScapes MarketingTM • Examples • Future Directions

3. Who is FOCUS: PRODUCTIVITY

4. FOCUS: PRODUCTIVITY Marketing Database Practitioners Consumer Focus Survey Database Integration Opportunity Analysis Consumer Segmentation Custom Target Modeling MindScapes MarketingTM Strategy Development Serving you in:

5. Test 1 Test 2 MODEL 10th 2nd 3rd 4th 7th 9th 5th 6th 8th 1st Decile Decile Decile Decile Decile Decile Decile Decile Decile Decile Results: Model Prediction vs. Actual % Lift 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

6. What We’ve Done Together

7. Consumer Segmentation/ Prospecting Market Structure

8. SNAKE! TREE! ROPE!

9. Attracting New Cardmembers

12. Utilization & Share Shifting (Custom Extras)

13. Share of Balances Other Cards Cash/Checks Amex

14. Share of Balances Other Cards Cash/Checks Amex

15. Aligning With ConsumerHot Buttons

16. Goldminer MINDSCAPES Hmm… They all look the same from up here!

17. Goldminer OH! NOW I SEE!

18. GOLDMINER& MindScapesTM Marketing

19. Syndicated ConsumerData Sources GoldMiner Database Client defined issues Custom Model GoldminerTM Integrated Database Amex CustomVariables • MRI Survey of American consumers • TransUnion • Experian • Scarborough Research • Define/size the consumer opportunity • Quantify source(s) of business • Apply Amex business criteria - Initial screen for risk - Screen for profit potential • Identify price sensitive segments • Determine consumer motivations/hot buttons • Optimized media mix

20. Syndicated ConsumerData Sources GoldMiner Database • MRI Survey of American consumers • Scarborough Research Client defined issues GoldminerTM Integrated Database Amex CustomVariables • MRI Survey of American consumers • TransUnion • Experian • Define/size the consumer opportunity • Quantify source(s) of business • Apply Amex business criteria - Initial screen for risk - Screen for profit potential • Identify price sensitive segments • Determine consumer motivations/hot buttons • Optimized media mix Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model Custom Model

21. Proprietary List Consumer MindScapes™ Marketing Acxiom or BureauProcesses Model Custom Model

22. Examples

23. 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Exploratory Analysis: Contour Map Profit potential Credit Constrained Average Balances Transactors 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Monthly Spending

24. Citibank AAdvantage Amex 19 18 17 16 Citibank AAdvantage 15 14 13 12 11 10 Amex 9 Diners Club 8 7 6 5 Amex 4 3 2 1 AirMiles Cards Profit potential Credit Constrained Average Balances Transactors 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Monthly Spending

25. 19 18 17 16 15 14 Profit potential 13 12 Credit Constrained 11 10 Average Balances 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Transactors 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Monthly Spending Price Sensitivity (“Invest” segment) Price-Sensitive Savers

26. Citibank AAdvantage Amex 19 18 17 16 Citibank AAdvantage 15 14 Profit potential 13 12 Credit Constrained 11 10 Average Balances Amex 9 Diners Club 8 7 6 5 Amex 4 3 Transactors 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Monthly Spending Price Sensitivity and AirMiles Price-Sensitive Savers

27. Standardized Means: Independent Variables High-value target population from MRI Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Testing Y Y N N N N N N N N N Y N Y N Y N N N N Y N N N Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 2. Model building • 220 Amex custom independent variables • Identified significant intervals, interaction effects

28. Retail & Cashback MRI Amex Custom Variables Retail & CashBack Prospecting Model HIT RATE DECILE RESPONSE INDEX CUME RESPONSE INDEX # IN DECILE # IN TOP QUADRANT GAINS CURVE DECILE CHISQ PROB. 1 3685 457 12.402 609.497 0.0000 10/30300****************** 300 2 3712 287 7.732 116.283 0.0000 20/49187***********243 3 3712 221 5.954 29.759 0.0000 30/63144****** **210 4 3711 158 4.258 0.139 0.7096 40/73103******183 5 3711 122 3.288 6.423 0.0113 50/8180****163 6 3711 95 2.560 22.225 0.0000 60/87 62 ***146 7 3711 78 2.102 37.052 0.0000 70/92 51***132 8 3711 54 1.455 64.398 0.0000 80/96 35 **120 9 3711 38 1.024 86.802 0.0000 90/98 25 *109 10 3711 240.642110.2320.0000100/100 16 *100 37113 1534 4.133 1082.809 0.0000 100

29. 3. MindScapes Marketing Profile Baby Boomers 35-49 married, children 12-17 living at home Old habits die hard: earn into “top of wallet” • Favorite card = longest held • Newest card = extremely high line • Other cards seldom used Loyal credit cardholders • Mortgage refi • Credit union, savings club • Combined home & auto insurance policy • Interest Checking They’ll read the fine print Rate-conscious money managers Agree: “ I know the price I pay for food and other packaged goods I buy” • Store Brands: pet foods, powdered soft drinks • Generics: bleach, facial tissues, paper napkins, plates • Heavy coupon user, price club shopper If it “doesn’t show” it isn’t worth it Stretching a buck day-to-day They’ll hold out for better terms rather than jump on the first offer I can afford to pick and choose Agree: “ I like to shop around” • Coach leather goods • Estee Lauder lipstick, Sunless tanning cream • Fine jewelry • Luxury vacations, status destinations • Amex Platinum Looking good to others is worth the price What’s important: personal image and leisure entertainment Agree: “ I’ll pay for a brand that’s consistent with the image I wish to convey”

30. Undifferentiated offer MindScapes Can Aid Message Strategy

31. Lifestyle Segmentation

32. Future Directions • Internet: New data source • Web-based delivery: Opportunity Analyzer