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Real broadband, real growth

Real broadband, real growth. Dirk van der Woude Ontwikkelingsbedrijf Gemeente Amsterdam. Effect of infrastructure…. …like that of the British steam railways… 1838 Netherlands: choice between speed barges or steam…. Fiber?. And WiFi was important too…. 1792 Lille => Paris: 15 stations

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Real broadband, real growth

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  1. Real broadband, real growth Dirk van der Woude Ontwikkelingsbedrijf Gemeente Amsterdam

  2. Effect of infrastructure… • …like that of the British steam railways… • 1838 Netherlands: choice between speed barges or steam…

  3. Fiber?

  4. And WiFi was important too… • 1792 • Lille => Paris: • 15 stations • 36 characters in 32 minutes • all records broken, huge success • And up to 1848 cause for the French to forgo investing into a copper telegraphe network

  5. http://www.generation-nt.com/actualites/25551/carte-fibre-optique-paris-couverture/http://www.generation-nt.com/actualites/25551/carte-fibre-optique-paris-couverture/

  6. Each industrial revolution is underpinned by new infrastructure GLOBAL DIGITAL TELE-COMMUNICATIONS AND ICT SUPPORT NETWORKS THE AGE OF INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY 1971 THE AGE OF OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE, PETROCHEMICALS AND MASS PRODUCTION 1908 ELECTRICITY, TELEPHONE, HIGHWAYS AND AIRWAYS 1875 TRANSCONTINENTAL COMMUNICATIONS, STEAMSHIPS, RAILWAYS AND TELEGRAPH THE AGE OF STEEL ELECTRICITY AND HEAVY ENGINEERING 1829 RAILWAYS, PENNY POST AND TELEGRAPH THE AGE OF RAILWAYS, COAL AND THE STEAM ENGINE THE “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” IN ENGLAND 1771 CANALS, TURNPIKE ROADS AND MAIL COACHES Source: Carlota Pérez

  7. 1971 1908 1875 1829 1771 Old shoes are nice (some are quite old…) Optical chip throughput: 1,6 Tbs(april 2006) Fiber speed: 8 Gb/s over 30,000 km(march 2006) First trans atlantic fiber (1988), First usable fiber optic cable (1970) First TV Transmission through coax Berlin Games (1934); First pilot in USA, AT&T (1936) Coaxial cable patented in GermanyErnst Werner von Siemens (1884) First demonstration of electric telephone Antonio Santi Giuseppe Meucci (Havana 1849, NewYork 1854) Semaphore (portable version: Napoleon Bonaparte, 1802)

  8. Imagine a world without having the age of steam… • So let us be thankful for copper and coax! • however…

  9. 1999 - 2001: awareness Amsterdam • Can we be sure copper & cox networks are future proof • Practical speed • Parallel use (video) • Not able to sustain the city’s economic & social needs • Like continuing strong old and new media & ICT sector • Like citizens overwhelming web use (2006: > 85%) • “Living at a dirt road? Don’t buy a Ferrari” • Services follow infrastructure • Creative sector & citizens will find out use • Local government facilitates • Time for new network?

  10. Amsterdam – employment(total 412.000 working persons)

  11. Amsterdam internet exchange: growth Worldwide peak speed records: July ‘05: > 50 Gb/s October ’05: > 100 Gb/s May ’06: > 154 Gb/s June’07: > 282 Gb/s

  12. VDSL2 – laboratory conditions http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=93103&page_number=4 • And of course there is this ‘contention’ thing…

  13. Shared capacity… • So: • Better live next • to the central office… • And of course still thereis this ‘contention’ thing… • Parallel speed? Ams-IX per sub:UPC 40 kbitsEssent: 60 kbitsXS4All: 67 kbits xDSL 8 - 14 Mb/s down, 0.7 – 0.8 Mb/s up Leaves for web use: ? Mb Two phones: 2 x 0,2 Mb IP TV SD low = 3 to 4 Mb SD normal = 4 to 6 Mb HD low = 8 to 12 Mb HD = 18 to 20 Mb http://www.ams-ix.net/connected/?expanded=1

  14. First user test of Amsterdam FttH • Advertised speed: 100 Mb up, 100 Mb down • In practice (first days): 88 Mb down

  15. Japan: 270,000 new FttH… per month

  16. Oct 1, 2008

  17. FttH, elsewhere in Europejust a pick (1) • France, the battle for & around Paris • Iliad: 1 million FttH at 1 billion Euro investment (City of Paris supporting) • Neuf Cegetel: in 2009 we want 250,000 FttH (50 Mbits) at euro 29,90 • France Telecom, 2007: FttH (100/10 Mbits at euro 44,90) in Paris, Poitiers, Marseille, Lille, Toulouse & Lyon. Target: 200,000 subs end 2008 • Noos Numericable, march 2007: “Massive investment towards FttH” • over 100 broadband projects France with communal participation • Nov. 2006, French government: 4 million FttH in 2012 • Germany: competitive teleco’s announcing FttH • f.e. NetCologne: all of Cologne, to be followed by Bonn, Aachen?(NetCologne = 100% GEW Köln AG = 100% City of Cologne) • Other projects in Schwerte, Norderstedt, Hamburg, Gelsenkirchen, Dessau, Magdeburg

  18. FttH, elsewhere in Europejust a pick (2) • Vienna, Zürich (muni energy corp’s): • FttH in whole city • Norway: Hafslund energi (53% owned by City of Oslo) • FttH to half of Norwegian population • Sweden: • 200 of 289 communities own a fiber network • Denmark: energy corps doing FttH • 2008 – 2009 to 35% of homes (= 50% of population) • UK: • Oxfordshire project, part FttH (?), part Fiber/VDSL • Rest of UK, according to BT & DSG: “12/1 Mb is enough for all & ever.” “No fiber please, we ‘re British” • However, Ofcom report march 2007: “Last mile will have to be fiber”

  19. Hauts-de-Seine: 700,000 connections • Western part of Greater Paris • pop. 1.5 million, 100.000 SME’s, 880.000 jobs, 85% in services • Per capita highest income of France • 2005, adoption of proposal by the Chairman of the Conseil General • FttH to all population and companies • With a maximum subsidy of euro 70 million • Said Sarkozy: “Copper is not gonna cut it, we need fiber”

  20. FttH in the EU, some examples Problem for EU?

  21. Three layers, three types of investors40,000 homes passed now – more than 450,000 later on consumer/ SME Service providers 100% market Wholesale transmission provider 100% market Rent Rent Passive access network provider 20% municipal

  22. Three kinds of financial dynamics40,000 homes passed now – more than 450,000 later on Services High OpEx, Low CapEx Quickly profitable Transmission Attractive OpEx, acceptable CapEx – profitable in few years Passive network Real estate like investment (Highly?) Profitable on long term

  23. Translated into investments (millions of euro)

  24. Fiber-from-the-Home 40,000 meter boxes, 10% of Amsterdam Boroughs of Zeeburg (100%), Oost (part) & Osdorp (part)

  25. Architecture (1) • three-layer model • Passive fibre infrastructure: Point-to-Point • Unbundled local loop of fiber = maximum competition at upstream level in value chain • Largest capacity for future growth • Active layer: Active Ethernet • Applications services layer, Service providers are being offered transparent access: • with discrete virtual LANs (VLANs) for each service on a per user basis • allowing multiple services to be delivered and invoiced to each home in parallel (i.e. multiple ISP’s, Citywide Intranet, closed circuit IP-based surveillance, IP-TV, care and medical services etc.)

  26. Architecture (2) • Open network • Concession of 8 years for operator/investor, after that more operators possible • Operator is non discriminatory wholesale seller of capacity • Why not x-PON • Avert risk of having to (expensive) re-digging • Labor costs dominate, will rise with inflation • Short distances, so savings on cost of material (fiber) are small • No lock-in of equipment supplier which stifles innovation • Impossible to have different technology/supplier per subscriber line

  27. www.glasvezelamsterdam.nl & www.citynet.nl Vragen?

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