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Understanding Climate Models & Carbon Dioxide Forcing

Explore the impact of increased CO2 levels on global warming, the role of anthropogenic emissions, and the predictions of climate models. Learn about the effects of radiative forcing and the future implications of rising CO2 levels according to the IPCC.

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Understanding Climate Models & Carbon Dioxide Forcing

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Global WarmingEffects of increase CO2

  2. Carbon dioxide Can we be completely sure that the climate changes we observe are caused by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide? But it is likely:

  3. Climate ModelsPredictions What do climate models lead us to expect?

  4. Climate ModelsWhat is the current effect of CO2 Average 240 W/m2 Average 240 W/m2 150 W/m2 On Average 390 W/m2 • A net extra ‘forcing’ of around 2 watts per square metre… + 2 W/m2

  5. An additional 2 watts per square metre of ‘radiative forcing’ • Scientific American March 2004

  6. Contributions toClimate Forcing Climate Forcing (W/m2) -1 0 +1

  7. Feedback Increased Climate Forcing Increased Water Vapour Positive Global Temperature More Evaporation Negative Decreased Climate Forcing Increased Cloud Cover Climate Forcing

  8. The Future… CO2 levels will rise • Very roughly, • If we make a 50% cut in GLOBAL emissions • CO2 will stabilise at twice historical levels • Probably the best we can hope for in the next century.

  9. IPCC Predictions…

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