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This report provides an update on media inflation trends, focusing on local developments and international trends. It highlights the challenges faced by print media and the need to demonstrate the value of print in a digital age.
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Report 75.0- 1st Quarter Release - • Johannesburg • 14 May 2014
General Local Developments: Media Inflation Watch Up-date 2013 Media Inflation Watch revealed Radio as the most aggressive platform from a rate perspective; up 11.54% yoy. With declining circulation, however, and an absence of support / research from the key players in print, the published inflation data must be raising value concerns.
AMPS / JIC’s and the rest! With the latest AMPS hot into the market, many marketers and perhaps publishers have perhaps taken their collective eye off the future of what will become of AMPS in its new “establishment” survey role. PAMS has still to be agreed, it’s content decided and funding issues remain the elephant in the room. What is clear is that the TV broadcasters are now driving the process and even siblings such as radio appear now to be an afterthought. Print has a powerful story to tell as proven over the passing of Nelson Mandela and recently demonstrated via Millward Brown’s independent research. Print research going forward must demonstrate the value of print and not just the quantum. Value is determined by return on investment and not just the rates charged.. Finally, in respect of the research, we should remember that digital is the new print ink, and not a competitor. The future for print in Africa will be a combination of both written delivery methods.
International Developments: Print “Only” readership holding its own in the USA • A new analysis (Feb 2014) of the most recent newspaper audience reports suggests a surprising split in reading habits. Digital audience continues to grow. Mobile audience is growing quickly. Mobile-only audience, though much smaller, has grown to 7 million. • Yet more than half of newspaper audience — 54 percent still read their local paper’s news report only in print. • The daily circulation gains (+3%) however were entirely driven by digital gains at the largest newspapers. • Sunday gains also reflected the heavy use of “Sunday Select” products — packets of inserts to non-subscribers — by larger papers.
Rule Amendments effective 1st January 2014: PDF Replica Editions: • Paid Circulation – circulation is counted when payment is received. • Bulk sales – The publisher must prove distribution in terms of a list provided by the purchaser – limited to 10% of total paid circulation. • Free bulk distribution is excluded.
Overall Economic Perspective Comment: Real GDP at market prices increased by 1.9% in 2013. The main increase was in Finance, Real Estate & Business. Retail sales grew by 2.2% year on year in February 2014.The main increase was in Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather.
4 Year Total Newspaper Circulation Trend by Quarter: Comment: Total Newspaper circulation increased by 20,000 compared to the previous quarter.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Daily Newspapers Comment: • Circulation has declined annually by 4.5% since 2010, equivalent to • 304,000 copies. • However, Q1 remained static, compared to Q4.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language Daily Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined by 4.7% annually (232, 000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined by 6.5% annually (87,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have increased by 3.5% (15,000 copies) over the period.
4 Year Trend Analysis: Coastal vs Inland Daily Newspapers Comment: Inland circulation declined annually by 4.7% (208,000 copies) over the period. Coastal circulation declined annually by 4.% (96,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Weekly Newspapers Comment: • Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance. • Q1, however, declined by 2.5% (13,000 copies) compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Weekend Newspapers Comment: Circulation has declined annually by 5% (485,000 copies) over the period. Q1, however, only declined by 1.8% (34,000 copies) compared to Q4.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language:Weekend Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined annually by 5.5% (367,000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined annually by 8% (193,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have grown annually by 11.6% (76,000 copies) over the period.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Local Newspapers Comment: Local Newspapers have declined by 2.8% (63,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 11,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Hybrid Newspapers Comment: Circulation shows a dramatic decline as a result of The Times moving to Daily Newspapers in Q4. Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Free Newspapers Comment: Distribution has increased annually by 7.1% (1,513,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 53,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Magazine Circulation by Quarter Comment: Total magazines increased by 0.5% (97,000 copies) over the previous quarter. Consumer magazines decreased by 0.4% (24,000 copies) over the previous quarter.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines Comment: Circulation declined annually by 1.7% (468,000 copies) over the period, although the decline has slowed in Q1 compared to the previous 6 quarters.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Home Comment: Circulation has remained static over the period, Q1, however, increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4..
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Sport and Hobby Comment: Circulation declined annually by 3.3% (66,000 copies) over the period. Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Travel Comment: Circulation increased annually by 22.7% (259,000 copies) over the period, fluctuating considerably as a result of biennial reporting titles. Q1 increased by 19,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines – Woman’s General Comment: Circulation declined by 3.4% annually (237,000 copies) over the period. Q1 decreased by 48,000 copies compared to Q4, mainly the result of a discontinued title.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Business to Business Magazines Comment: Circulation has remained static over the period.
Titles Showing Largest DeclineBusiness to Business Magazines
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:B2B Magazines – Hospitality, Catering and Tourism Comment: Circulation declined annually by 13% (62,000 copies) over the period, although has remained fairly static over the last year.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Custom Magazines Comment: Circulation increased annually by 2% (918,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 204,000 copies compared to Q4.
