Population growth, food production and land use

1. Population growth, food production and land use Prof. Dr. Ir. Patrick Van Damme (with input by L. Raes) Patrick.VanDamme@UGent.Be 9 December 2010

2. History of Population Growth and Food Production

3. Historical Population Growth Source: Stein, 2008

4. Evolution Population Density Source: Goldwijk, 2001

5. Evolution Population Density cont’ Source: Goldwijk, 2001

6. Evolution Population Density cont’ Source: Goldwijk, 2001

7. Evolution Population Density cont’ Source: Goldwijk, 2001

8. Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture Source: Rankin, 2009

9. Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’ Source: Rankin, 2009

10. Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’ Source: Rankin, 2009

11. Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’ Source: Rankin, 2009

12. Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’ Source: Rankin, 2009

13. Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’ Source: Rankin, 2009

14. Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’ Source: Rankin, 2009

15. Recent History of per Capita Food Consumption (kcal/person/day) Source: FAO, 2002

16. Recent Evolution of Meat Consumption Source: FAO, 2006

17. Global Biofuel Production (2000-2007) Source: IEA, 2008

18. Population growth contributed only marginally to increasing demand for cereals, including wheat, rice and corn → growing consumption of meat and dairy products in developing world (higher incomes and urbanization) → more grain is being fed to livestock • Crop use for biofuel production growing even faster • Almost all increase in global maize production between 2004 and 2007 went to make corn-based ethanol in US → amount of corn required to fill one gas tank with ethanol fuel could feed one person for an entire year (Davis, 2008)

19. World fish capture and aquaculture production Source: FAO, 2003

20. But, Undernutrition Still is a Major Problem Source: FAO, 2009

21. Undernutrition per Region (millions) FAO, 2009

22. So does the world produce enough food to feed everyone? • YES • World agriculture produces 17 percent more calories per person today than 30 years ago, despite 70 percent population increase → enough food to provide everyone with at least 2,720 kilocalories (kcal) per person per day (FAO 2002) →but, many people in the world do not have sufficient land to grow, or income to purchase, enough food (self-sufficiency ?)

23. BUT: • result of agricultural modernization, changes in diets and population density → humankind increasingly depends on reduced amount of agricultural biological diversity for its food supplies → a dozen species of animals provide 90 percent of animal protein consumed globally → just four crop species provide half of plant-based calories in the human diet (FAO, 2009)

24. Current Situation of Food Production and Land Use

25. Extent of Cultivated Systems, 2000 Cultivated systems cover 24% of the global terrestrial surface

26. Much of natural resource base in use worldwide shows worrying signs of degradation • According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 15 out of 24 ecosystem services examined are already being degraded or used unsustainably • e.g. capture fisheries and water supply • Intensification of some ecosystem services, such ‘food production’, cause the degradation of others • Soil nutrient depletion • Erosion • Desertification, • Depletion of freshwater reserves • Loss of tropical forest and biodiversity

27. Locations Undergoing High Rates of Land CoverChange in the Past Few Decades

29. Deadzones in theworld, duetoleakage of fertilisers rich in nitrates and phosphates + sewage discharges Source: Diaz and Rosenberg, 2007

30. Status of Terrestrial Ecoregions Source: WWF, 2006

31. Mean Species Abundance Source: UNEP, 2009

32. 75% of the major marine fish stocks are either depleted, overexploited or being fished at their biological limit Source: FAO, 2002

33. Future Population Growth and Food Production

34. Source: http://esa.un.org/UNPP/

35. Source: http://esa.un.org/UNPP/

36. Population dynamics by development groups, 1950-2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social UN, 2005

37. Future Trend per Capita Food Consumption (kcal/person/day) Source: FAO, 2002

38. Global Progress in food consumption Source: FAO, 2002

39. Future Consumption of Animal Protein (kg/person/region)

40. World ethanol and biodiesel projections, 2005-2018 Source: FAO-OECD, 2009

41. Recent Increases in Food Prices Source: FAO

42. The “why” of high food prices Longer term factors of price increase: • continued population growth in developing countries • changing consumer tastes • the increasing demand for food and feed crops to use in biofuel production • the lack of investment in developing country (small-scale !) agriculture in recent decades • rising energy and associated fertiliser prices, which have significantly increased cost of agricultural production, food processing and food distribution

43. Conflict over Resources Need for more land, water, energy and other inputs to produce more for more people

44. Diminishing Land per Person Source: UNEP, 2009

45. Source: Erb et al., 2007 What land will we use to produce more food?

46. Agricultural Suitability Source: Ramankutty et al., 2001

47. Arable Land Source: Bruinsma, 2009

48. Potential for Cropland Expansion? Source: Bruinsma, 2009

49. The world has considerable land reserves which could in theory be converted to arable land • However, extent to which this can be realized is limited • some of lands currently not cultivated have important ecological functions which would be lost • land mostly located in just a few countries in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, where lack of access and infrastructure could limit their use • FAO projects that by 2050 the area of arable land will be expanded by 70 million hectares, or about 5 percent (FAO, 2009)

50. Sources of growth for major cereals in developing countries(%) Source: FAO, 2009