Land Use & Population Growth in Belize, Central America

1. Land Use & Population Growth in Belize, Central America Modeling Future Impacts on Ecosystems ~Eve Robinson, Dept. of Marine Science

2. Why Belize? • Thesis • Glover’s Reef Marine Reserve • Copepod & Reef Blenny • Unique environments • Biological diversity • Recent development • Tourism

3. Belize • Caribbean coast of Central America • Mountainous region and extensive coastline • 6 districts

4. Belize • Caribbean coast of Central America • Mountainous region and extensive coastline • 6 districts

5. Ecosystems • Marine • Second largest barrier reef in the World • Home to rare species • High biodiversity • Terrestrial • Protected Areas

6. Ecosystems • Marine • Terrestrial • 93% under forest cover • Mangroves • Tropical rain forests • Protected Areas

7. Ecosystems • Marine • Terrestrial • Protected Areas • Approx. 47% available land • Encompasses breeding grounds, marine reserves, forest reserves, and sanctuaries

8. Protected Areas

9. Land Use Urban Agriculture Population estimates Historical data Exponential growth Project Plan Model Builder • Relate land km2/person • Estimate land use increase from population increase

10. Project Plan Population Increase Nt = N0ert Population per District Land (km2) per capita Land Use per District Land Use Increase

11. Land Use • .e00 files • Drainage Roads Cities Land Use • Import errors

12. Land Use • .e00 files • Drainage Roads Cities Land Use • Import errors

13. Population • Evenly distributed between urban & rural areas • Proportional growth in most districts • Estimation by district Year 2004

14. Population • Population growth by exponential equation • Growth rate = 2.39% • Double the current population in less than 30 years

15. Progress • Population estimates & growth • Land use files ArcGIS compatible • Implications of growth on protected habitats • Urban/agricultural encroachment • Habitat loss • Importance of modeling