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Demographic Trends “Where we go from here”

Demographic Trends “Where we go from here”. Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc. Where we go from here. Macro Demographic Trends Recent Development Trends Projected Growth Patterns Implications of Trends on Housing.

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Demographic Trends “Where we go from here”

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  1. Demographic Trends“Where we go from here” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

  2. Where we go from here. • Macro Demographic Trends • Recent Development Trends • Projected Growth Patterns • Implications of Trends on Housing

  3. Maryland Population Pyramid 2000-2010 2000 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000

  4. Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

  5. Bob Lefenfeld: Maryland Population Pyramid 2010-2020 2020 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000

  6. Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

  7. Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

  8. Maryland Regions

  9. Job Growth by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Labor

  10. Permits by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  11. Impact of Growth Controls Source: Maryland Department of Planning, RPRG

  12. 2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. Region Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  13. Source: Maryland Department of Planning

  14. Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

  15. Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

  16. Product Implications • Demographically, Active Adult housing demand growing. • Much AA exurban locations since prime suburban land premium in these markets. • Smaller, more expensive for sale housing in urban infill areas. • Locate close to home. 60% of 55 to 64 buyersbuy within county they reside.

  17. Second Homes • Buyers typically 60 years old • Income $93,000. • 74 % vacation home, 23 % investment property. • 2nd Home w/i 200 miles of primary resident. Source: National Association of Realtors

  18. Demand for Rental Housing… • Demand increase with echo boom and part of active adult population. • Affordability restricting some households from buying, especially if interest rates increase. • Tax credit primary housing program to address moderate income households. • Reinvestment in urban areas • (Mark to Market, HOPE VI)

  19. Senior Housing • Demand is just starting to build. • Evolution of rental housing from small tax credit projects to larger market rate rental units. • Long term, more demand for integrated campus to serve seniors.

  20. WWW.RPRG.Net

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