Demographic Destiny: Higher Education Enrollment Trends

1. Demographic Destiny:  Higher Education Enrollment Trends Don Hossler Professor of Educational Leadership & Policy Studies Indiana University Bloomington

2. An Exemplar • Demographic and Enrollment Trends • The Nation • New York • Public Policy Trends • Federal Trends • State Trends • Implications for the Private Sector • Policy Implications • Enrollment Management Implications

3. The Beginning of the Pipeline

4. Source: U.S. Department of Education 11% Growth 28% Growth High School Graduates

5. More than 50% 36% to 50% 21% to 35% 10% to 20% Less than 10% Minority School Enrollments Source: U.S. Department of Education

6. Enrollment Patterns Among Four-Year Institutions 68.9% 70.7% 70.5%

8. A Summative Look at Market Share Across All Sectors Source: U. S. Department of Education

9. Switching to a State View

10. The Next Generation

11. The High School Pipeline – One View

12. But What’s Under the Hood?A Look at Ethnicity of Graduates

13. And Where Will They Come From?

14. These Last Slides Present a Probable Profile of…. • Students of color • Lower income students • Who are more likely to be price sensitive • Who will be within easy commuting distance of community colleges

15. A Look at Enrollment Patterns by Sector

16. It Appears the Private Sector is Doing Well

17. A Look Across All Sectors

18. An Interesting Look at the Public Sector

19. But, Where Do Transfers Go?

20. Now, What About Public Policy Shifts?

21. Federal Policy Trends • Focus on transferability • From traditionally accredited 2 yr IHES • From proprietary schools • Ways to constrain demands for financial aid • Current federal policies being proposed could have a chilling impact on most public and private 4 years and at least indirectly advantage two year sector

22. Relevant State Policy Trends at the National Level • Constrain demands for state resources going to postsecondary education • Appropriations to institutions • Support for student financial aid • Seamless transferability • Encourage transfer & articulation agreements • Mandate them • All of these are likely to increase the social acceptability of starting at Two-Year Colleges

23. New York State Policy Trends • Little focus on seamless transferability – at least for now • Looking for ways to constrain state appropriations for higher education • This could result in higher tuition in the public sector and this would help privates • State University of New York Board– What are the incentive structures for them around their institutions?

24. Thoughts and Implications • Private sector has done well • Demographic shifts pose potential problems – they have more in common characteristics of students attending 2 year colleges • Students starting in 2 year colleges already have a preference for publics • Public policy trends could result in longer term student preference shifts toward community colleges which could result in more students at publics • Will SUNY incentivize transferring within public sector institutions?

25. Public an private, two-years and four-years should monitor these trends • It is axiomatic, institutions that are less wealthy and selective should be more concerned