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Prospective analysis & IEA for the water environment lessons learned in the Netherlands

Prospective analysis & IEA for the water environment lessons learned in the Netherlands. dr.ir. Frans H.M. van de Ven RIZA ir. Ton H.M. Bresser RIVM. Integrated Water Management. IWM = management of groundwater + surface water quantity, quality and ecology taking into account

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Prospective analysis & IEA for the water environment lessons learned in the Netherlands

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  1. Prospective analysis &IEA for the water environmentlessons learned in the Netherlands dr.ir. Frans H.M. van de Ven RIZA ir. Ton H.M. Bresser RIVM

  2. Integrated Water Management IWM = management of • groundwater + surface water • quantity, quality and ecology taking into account the demands of society from a number of sectoral policy fields

  3. Relevant sectoral policy fields internal and external integration environment finance economy water management institutions technology socio-cultural spatial planning

  4. Integrated Water Management IWM = a decision making problem taking into account • ecological health of (water)system • stakeholders interests • economic • emotional • steering options IEA IWM

  5. Prospective analysis & IEA objective: • to assist decision makers in their task to manage the water (air, soil, space,….) by assessing developments in • issues • DPSIR • stakeholder interests (economic, social, …) • regional differences • related sectoral policies • steering mechanisms

  6. Developments in IEA in the NL • early ’90: policy analysis • early ’00: multiple methods end-user (decision maker) involvement stakeholder involvement

  7. Aquatic Outlook:4 methods to assess developments imagination reality

  8. 1. Scanning the policies Method: analyse policy documents from • spatial planning • environment • nature • agriculture • economy…. to find common problems, developments, strategy,...

  9. Findings They hardly said anything about water ! (this has drastically changed in the recent years!) So (1): poor external integration of water management (2): change objective of IWM from • protecting against flooding and pollution abatement to • managing water in the interest of the people

  10. work of experts scenario’s complex models profound water-system-focussed limited interaction with stakeholders 2. Policy analysis identification development & analysis selection

  11. Gebruiks- functies Hydrodynamica morfologie Emissies Water- kwaliteit Ecologie Modelling instruments

  12. 7 6.33 voortzetting 6 bemesting op nivo 1993 4.8 5 HUIDIG BELEID 4 Nul-bemesting kton fosfaat 3 1985-lijn 2 SYSTEEM 1 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 jaar P- runoff and leachingin various scenarios

  13. landbouw communaal overige lozingen op riool depositie Sources of direct N-emissions into NL regional water systems

  14. Open Planning Policy Analysis Interchange Process of information 1. Start-up 2. Problems Problems 3. Solutions Solutions 4. Actions New: Collaborative PA

  15. Participants collaborative PA Interchange of Information Open Planning Process Policy Analysis: Professionals Professionals Non-Professionals Including stakeholders Including stakeholders

  16. 3. Trend analysis Method: interviews, deskwork, discussions using expert judgement and statistics in order to find relevant trends and trend breaches in the next 20-25 yrs.

  17. Findings New agenda for IWM: • water economics (extended CBA) • emotional values (cultural, landscape Q) • impact on spatial planning • European dimension / river basin approach / Framework directive • IWM learns to communicate

  18. 4. Future framing / backward mapping Method: Visionary people imagine the future (cf. Jules Verne) than step backward in time and see how to steer developments (stimulate or avoid)

  19. Findings

  20. Function of the 4 methods • stimulate discussion with • decision makers • stakeholders to create “negotiated (shared) knowledge” and “sense of urgency” • raising issues for the policy agenda knowledge agenda n policy agenda • show steering options (how and when)

  21. Discussion • no longer enough to make water system / water policy analysis • decision makers agenda has changed: • safety first • appreciation of water • economic value of water • collaborative planning • impact on spatial/physical planning

  22. Discussion • IEA to (re)formulate & address this new agenda • IEA to provide options, no optimal solutions • IEA to answer steering questions • hard to transfer information Objective: create joint learning process via discussions, games, workshops, … • permanent dialogue with decision makers & stakeholders required

  23. Discussion • WFD n IWM • WFD = instrument; IEA = another instrument • data requirement of WFD n 2004 State & Outlook report avoid double work !

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