Changing European air pollution due to hemispheric transport and climate change

1. Changing European air pollution due to hemispheric transport and climate change Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute and EMEP MSC-W

2. Europe wide environmental problems related to atmospheric composition- intercontinental contributions and feedbacks from climate change • Acidification of soils and waters • Terrestrial eutrophication • Marine eutrophication • Ground level ozone - human health • Ground level ozone - forests and crops • Particles - human health • Health and ecotoxic effects - heavy metals • Health and ecotoxic effects – POPs • Regional UV change emep

3. The Greying of Europe emep

4. Fate of European N and S emissions 1996 emep EMEP MSCW

5. UN-ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution emep

7. The Greying of Europe Q: Fraction of N, S emitted over Europe removed there

8. The trend in the global seaborne trade movement of dry cargo and oil since 1984 in million tonnes per year (20).

9. Shipping emissions • NOx 3,29 MtN/a (COADS 1996) • CO 0,44 MTC/a • SO2 3,01 MtS/a • CH4 0,046 Mt/a • VOC 0,36 Mt/a (Endresen et al., 2003) (COADS: The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set)

10. Lelieveld et al., 2004

14. Growth in ozone due to methane • Tropospheric ozone up from 25DU to 34DU during industrial era up to 2000 • 4DU attributed to growth in methane • NH ozone growth 30ppb in industrial era • 13ppb of NH ozone growth due to methane increase (IPCC, 2001)

16. Tundra distribution in the northern hemisphere Global land area with permafrost is approx 36 mill sq.km or 24% of the total land area

17. Another climate – chemical change feedback: Fire-convection frequency (”Add fire-convection to volcanoes”) • August 2003: Hundreds of boreal forest fires in Russia and Canada and in the temperate forests of the USA (210.000km2 in Russia burnt) • Northern summer 1998 boreal zone fires in Russia and Canada with plume smoke entering the lower stratosphere residing till October • Significant increase in frequency and severity of boreal fires predicted under climate change (longer fire seasons and drier conditions) Fromm and Bevilacqua, Atm.Env. 2004, 38, 163-165.

18. More lightning under climate change? • The global surface source of NOx is about 40 MtN/a (50-50 anthropogenic and biogenic) • Lightning source about 5 MtN/a (1-20 MtN/a range) • Aircraft source 0.5-1 MtN/a

19. Globalisation, transportation needs • Shipping has gone up by 70% between 1984 and 2001 • Air transport has increased yearly by between 5 and 10% since 1970. • Air pollution emissions from these transport systems have only been controlled to a limited extent. Shipping hardly any control except some in limited areas, e.g. the North Sea and the Baltic. • Ship emissions are today responsible for more than 10 percent of the global NOx emissions (perhaps as much as 20%). • For Europe, shipping emissions now contribute significantly to the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in coastal areas and the downward trend in atmospheric deposition is slowing or has stopped

20. Mechanisms behind intercontinental transport

22. Forster and Stohl, 2004

23. Influence of emissions from North America, Europe, and Asia on global ozone concentrations (from Li et al., 2002).

24. Transport of pollution in convective cells

25. Climate change influences air quality

26. European summer drought 2003: Crop damage 12,3 billion USD, forest fires Portugal 1,6 billion USD, thawing of tundra caused slides; 22,000-35,000 heat wave related deaths in Europe 1-15.8.2003, in France death rate increased by 54%, significant in all age groups above 45 yeras. Figure from Baden-Württemberg (Schär og Jendritzky Nature 2.12.2004 p. 560). 1/3 of deaths ozone related.

28. Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427, 332-336

29. RCM climate change scenario of current (CTRL 1961–90) and future (SCEN 2071–2100) conditions. a, b, distribution of summer T northern Switzerland for CTRL and SCEN, c, T for SCEN–CTR, d, Change in variability expressed as relative change in standard deviation of JJA means ((SCEN–CTRL)/CTRL, %). Copied from Schär et al., 2004.

30. Enhanced boundary layer ozone over central Europe summer 2003 • Shutting off of dry deposition? • Enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds? • Enhanced boundary layer residence times • Less clouds; lower ozone column; more UV

31. Estimates of climate change feedback on atmospheric composition • Summer ABL ozone a factor of 2 over Continental Europe? • Biogenic emissions feedback 10%? • Acid dep and eutrophication 10%? • Summer PM a factor of 2?

32. Reduction of soil carbon formation by tropospheric ozone under increased carbon dioxide levels • Ozone and carbon dioxide raised by 50%, reduced the formation rates of soil carbon by 50% compared to exposure to increased CO2 alone (aspen and mixed aspen-birch stands). • Elevated ozone and carbon dioxide cause reduction in global-scale plant productivity and lower soil carbon formation rates significantly (positive feedback). • Increased tropospheric ozone follows the CO2 emissions; and as ozone reduces carbon uptake in soil, more CO2 remains in the atmosphere, increasing temperature further (with positive feedback on ozone). (Loya, W.M., K.S.Preglitzer, N.J.Karberg, J.S.King and C.P.Giardina (2003)

33. Some conclusions • Intercontinental transport (and shipping) of increasing importance for European ozone, PM, S and N • Climate change can significantly affect meteorological variability and hence the outcome of emission reduction measures • Local to global scales are interrelated • Environmental issues are interrelated • Policy development needs observational and modelling support that cuts across related environmental issues to be cost efficient and balanced. • Case in point: AQFD & EMEP monitoring strategies and emission inventory alignment, combine infrastructure, shift balance of monitoring and analysis requirements to combine all scales (local-urban-regional-continental-hemispheric)

34. How to keep track of Europe’s air quality under global change?

35. UN-ECEConvention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution - 49 Parties - 8 Specific protocols European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) - 41 Parties The EMEP vision; To be the main science based and policy-driven instrument for international cooperation in atmospheric monitoring and modelling activities, emission inventories and projections, and integrated assessment to help solve transboundary air pollution problems in Europe EMEP and UNECE organize modelling and montoring on the appropriate scale: national, continental, hemispheric and global

36. UN ECE Convention On Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

37. Information fluxes within CLRTAP WGSR Implementation Committee WGE EMEP Assessment of Air Quality trends, transport fluxes Assessment of effects Proposed strategies Emission data Source-receptor relationships Critical load maps CCE CIAM MSC-W MSC-E CCC Transport fluxes Emissions Costs, technologies Monitored data Critical load Stock at risk Scenarios Countries

38. Intercontinental transport of Hg Deposition to Europe Deposition from Europe, t/y MSC-E

39. Emission reductions in Europe in relation to the agreements in the Gothenburg Protocol under CLRTAP (percent in relation to 1990)

40. EMEP regional network in GAW, part of IGACO, GEOSS, GMES

41. END