New experiments on WSR 2009-2011 with modern version high res GFS/GSI

1. New experiments on WSR 2009-2011 with modern version high res GFS/GSI Yucheng Song EMC/NCEP/NOAA

2. Strong Linkage with downstream wave packet development GDAS: 300mb v (ave:30-60N) OPR run Each winter, we should just focus on several events with clear cut wave packet formed Sampled Sampled 2009 Sampled From 2009 run Sampled

3. Forecast comparison w and without the dropsondes, 12Z, Feb 1, 2009 Surface pressure 500m Height Positive warm color means forecast improvement, negative for degradation

4. RMSE error comparison w and without dropsondes by GFS/GDAS data impact experiments, 12Z Feb 1, 2009 Surface pressure, averaged over 180W to 60W 30N to 70N

5. Forecast comparison w and without the dropsondes, 12Z, Feb 24, 2009 Positive warm color means forecast improvement area

6. RMSE error comparison w and without dropsondes by GFS/GDAS data impact experiments, 12Z Feb 24, 2009 Surface pressure, averaged over 180W to 60W 30N to 70N

7. 2010 – 2011 experiments Scripts are ready Some test runs are done Data impact on precipitation

8. Issues • High resolution T574L64 runs are quite expensive, limited resources • We found that the location information were stripped from the TEMP messages (WMO limitation) • Drift effect of the dropsondes should be considered in the future • ET KF codes need development with more vertical levels and finer scale • ETKF codes need to consider error statistics from the operational system • Adaptive targeting is quite effective when properly used