Peter .R. Head - OBE - FREng - FRSA Director Arup 1st April 2008 Warsaw

1. A new direction for economic development in PolandA new paradigm of development leading Europe towards the ‘ecological civilisation’ Peter .R. Head - OBE - FREng - FRSADirector Arup1st April 2008 Warsaw

2. Contents:1. Introduction2. Emerging vision of the Ecological Age3. Guidelines for the transition4. Low carbon eco-city planning and development in China 5. Approach to a new paradigm of development in Poland

3. 1. Introduction The shrinking earth, the need to move away from the Industrial Age model of development to scientific sustainable development, Poland’s position

4. CO2 levels in atmosphereand global temperatures

5. DriversOFChange:Land Security • Our shrinking Earth Year… hectares of land per capita… 1900 7.91 1950 5.15 1987 2.60 2005 2.02 2030 1.69 2050 1.63

6. Poland NOW What if the rest of the world wanted to live like us- in RESOURCE EXCESS? Source: Global Footprint Network, 2006 National Footprint Accounts. NB. This is a highly conservative assessment, assuming that all Bio-capacity is available for Human use

7. the mitigation challenge:global ‘energy hunger’

8. Comparison with other countries Poland China Population density 124/sq km 136/sq km (Spain 79, Greece 57, UK 250) GDP/cap $12,000 $8,000 (Spain $23,300,Ireland $31,900) Living in urban areas 62% 41%

9. Use of EU Structural and Cohesion Funds-Industrial Age Model • Spain’s carbon emissions grew 53% between 1990 and 2005 compared with a target of 15% • Ireland’s transport energy grew 167% between 1990 and 2006 and is still rising at 7% per annum • Ecological footprint of Spain and Greece grew from 2.4gha/cap to 5.2gha/cap in 20 years

10. Japan’s National targets for a sound material-cycle society from 2000 to 2010 • Resource ProductivityGDP / input of natural resource 40% increase • Recycle Use Rate Proportion of recycled materials Increase from 10% to 14% • Final disposal amount Reduction of 50%

11. Economics of the Environment and Climate Change ‘Costs of mitigation of around 1% of GDP are small relative to the costs and relative to the risks of climate change that will be avoided’. Stern Report

12. Large Cities Climate Leadership GroupClinton Climate Initiative “ accelerate carbon emissions reductions and provide direct assistance through buying clubs ” London, New York, Stockholm, San Francisco, Toronto, Shanghai, Delhi, Mexico City, Beijing, Berlin, Barcelona, Chicago, Sao Paulo, Rome, Paris, Madrid, Melbourne, Istanbul, Tokyo, Moscow, Warsaw

13. 2. The emerging vision of the ‘ecological age’ Leadership, strategy, policies and demonstrator projects

14. like much of the world, China is becoming more urban “Urban population is to reach 1.12 billion by 2050 – this is a shift of more than 600 million people from rural to urban.” • Guangming Daily

15. visionandleadership “China’s current development is ecologically unsustainable, and the damage will not be reversible once higher GDP has been achieved” Zhenhua Xie, Minister of State Environmental Protection Agency

16. ——必须坚持全面协调可持续发展……坚持生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的文明发展道路，建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会，实现速度和结构质量效益相统一、经济发展与人口资源环境相协调，使人民在良好生态环境中生产生活，实现经济社会永续发展。——胡锦涛总书记在十七大上的报告 2007年10月15日 • We must makesustainabilitypart of everyday life • We must develop industry and living conditions in a balanced way • We must develop a society which is saving its resources and is environmental friendly • We must create a balance between quantitative and qualitative industrial development • We must balance economic growth with the sustainability of population, resources and environment President Hujintao, 17th Party Congress 15th October 2007

17. ——建设生态文明，基本形成节约能源资源和保护生态环境的产业结构、增长方式、消费模式。循环经济形成较大规模，可再生能源比重显著上升。主要污染物排放得到有效控制，生态环境质量明显改善。生态文明观念在全社会牢固树立。——胡锦涛总书记在十七大上的报告 2007年10月15日 • Towards anecological civilisation • We must develop a new focus on service industry and research and design • We must create a more resource efficient society • We must develop a circular economy and enhance the use of renewable energy • We must control the emissions effectively and improve the ecological environment • We must make the society ecologically aware President Hujintao, 17th Party Congress 15th October 2007

18. better city,sustainable city

19. 3.Guidelines for a transition to the ecological age The Biomimicry principles set out by Janine Benyus

20. Winning Strategies for the ‘ecological age’ 1. Use waste as a resource 2. Diversify and co-operate 3. Gather and use energy efficiently 4. Optimise not maximise 5. Use materials sparingly 6. Clean up, not pollute 7. Do not draw down resources 8. Remain in balance with the biosphere 9. Run on information 10. Shop locally Janine Benyus Biomimicry

21. 4.low carbon city master- planning and retrofitting Methodology, integrated resource modelling, master-planning, land-use efficiency, water, energy, accessibility, resource management, logistics and communications

22. integratedurbanism • Human and Environmental Health • Economic Vitality and Individual Prosperity • Energy • Housing • Nutrition and Urban Rural Linkages • Mobility and Access • Communications • Education and Culture • Governance and Civic Engagement • Water • Materials and Waste • Ecological Footprint

23. performance specification for an eco-city

24. eco-citythe sustainable approach

25. a new methodology for delivering better performanceoutcomes in cities:

26. virtuous cyclesof value in masterplanning

27. Source: Duvigneaud, DeSmet 1977

28. integratedresource management Linking the overarching master-plan to the technical disciplines Master Plan Transport Water supply Energy Food Production Wastewater Economics Waste Man. Logistics Others Understanding interactions and feedback loops between elements

29. the system of city life

30. Compact city x 4 x 2 newman and kenworthy

31. the world’s first eco-city:Dongtan

32. control plan630 ha start-uparea

33. accessibility

34. walking and cycling Road Network Strategy – Encouraging a high quality, safe and active Town 道路网络战略-鼓励高质量、安全和有活力的城市

35. freight logistics

36. Wanzhuang Eco-City Raising the Aspirations

38. 5.Approach to a new paradigm of development in Poland The policies, planning and infrastructure needed for the ecological age, delivery models for city retrofitting and overall benefits

39. National policies 1 • Link urban and rural development, aiming to raise overall productivitythrough closing resource loops between food production, fertilisers, water and waste in urban and rural communities. Aim for ecological footprint of ‘one planet’ by 2050 • Compensate for loss of agricultural land by raising productivity and food production in cities. • Aim to raise overall bio-diversity and maintain forests as energy source

40. National Policies 2 • Incentivise a circular economy and attract inward investment by companies focussed on re-use and remanufacture through special development zones. National resource intensity reduction target. • Develop education and health programmes to help population to be ecologically aware and draw on cultural roots of society • National energy policy to reduce emissions through efficiency improvements, renewable energy development and carbon capture

41. National policies 3 • Create overall spatial plans for cities based on a sustainable development framework for the ecological age • Create denser more compact mixed use development around public transport nodes in cities rather than allow urban sprawl • Prioritise Investment in low carbon public transport and walking and cycling in cities and efficient goods distribution systems • Retrofit buildings to reduce energy use

42. Infrastructure for the ecological age • Efficient comfortable zero emissions mass transport systems in cities • Walking and cycling routes connected to services • Underground waste collection to energy from waste plants • Efficient decentralised renewable energy power and heat • Recycling of waste water, and local rainwater capture • High speed intercity rail passenger and rail freight • Centralised city green logistics from freight hubs • Carbon capture at power stations • Intensive city food production and closing the urban –rural resource loop • Construction materials for compact mixed use cities mined from industrial age development

43. Delivery mechanism • Public private partnerships at a regional scale • Partners would include utilities for energy, water and waste, public and private sector land owners, public transport and logistics companies, major resource suppliers • Value drivers for public sector would be improved economic, social and environmental performance at a regional scale • Value drivers for private sector would be faster planning approval, lower investment costs, larger returns on investment, attraction of lower cost investment capital, new European legislation

44. Benefits to Poland • Growth with lower inflation • Lower dependency on countries outside Europe for energy supplies • Attract young professionals back • Attract more inward investment • Open up markets in new accession countries and old EU members • Higher more sustainable quality of life

45. Which future?