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The Seasonal Forecast of the Precipitation in China in the Summer of 2013

国际气候与环境科学中心 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences. The Seasonal Forecast of the Precipitation in China in the Summer of 2013. Peng Jingbei The Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), CAS. EASM System. IAP’s Climate Forecast. CGCM. AGCMs. CCSM4.0. 9L. 2L.

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The Seasonal Forecast of the Precipitation in China in the Summer of 2013

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  1. 国际气候与环境科学中心 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences The Seasonal Forecast of the Precipitation in China in the Summer of 2013 PengJingbei The Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), CAS

  2. EASM System

  3. IAP’s Climate Forecast CGCM AGCMs • CCSM4.0 • 9L • 2L ENSO forecast systems • EASM • Subtropical High • precipitation • Seasonal Forecast • CGCM • Ensemble system Statistical Methods • ENSO • SNOW • Atmospheric • Signal

  4. IAP’s Forecast of ENSO IAP’s CGCM-Nino3 IAP’s Large-Size Ensemble ENSO Forecast System with Coupled Data Assimilation-Nino3.4 The ENSO-neutral will continue through the next several months.

  5. Forecast of the Subtropical High IAP-2L-AGCM IAP-9L-AGCM Red- model’s long-term mean Green -prediction Blue-model’s long-term mean Red- prediction CCSM4 The subtropical high will be stronger than usual in summer of 2013 Blue-model’s long-term mean Red- prediction

  6. Forecast of EASMSnow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau(Provided by BCC/CMA) Less snow Stronger EASM More Snow →Colder TP surface in spring and summer → Weaker temperature contrast → Weaker EASM

  7. Forecast of EASM The Drought monitor in Feb 2013（BCC/CMA） U’200 inFeb 2013 The EASM Forecast Index +U’200 → the Jet shifted northward → less precipitation in the South Asia →land-sea contrast ↑ →stronger EASM (Zhang et al., 2003） Positive Correlation with EASM Index Stronger EASM

  8. Precipitation Prediction（Numerical Models） 2L-AGCM 9L-AGCM CCSM4

  9. Composed Summer Rainfall Anomaly Percentage during the Decaying Phase of LN

  10. Seasonal Forecast

  11. Thank You

  12. H500 Anomalies 9L 2L CCSM4

  13. UV’850 2L 9L CCSM4

  14. CCSM4 Prediction Skills (Correlation Coefficients with NCEP Reanalysis Data)

  15. East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM)+SSTAs in South China Sea(SCS) Index of EAWM Positive-Weaker Frontier SSTAs in DJF SSTAs in JJA Stronger EAWM→-SSTAs in SCS in Winter→-SSTAs in Summer→Land-Sea Contrast↑→EASM Stronger（Jiet al.，1997）

  16. Experiment of Ensemble Prediction of EASM Index of 2013 Contradictions in Prediction of EASM of 2013 Correlations with Observation EASM Index during 1982-2012 Ensemble Prediction

  17. 东亚地区的2013年夏季降水异常 mm/day 预测意见： 2013年我国夏季气候 环流：夏季风正常，副高偏西偏北； 降水：我国南方降水偏少，北方降水偏多；

  18. IAP9L-AGCM • A global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) . (Zeng, 1987; Zhang, 1990; Liang, 1996; Bi, 1993)Horizontal Resolution: 4o×5o ;Vertical Resolution: 9 levels, with a top at 10hPa.

  19. The initial atmospheric data and observed SSTA are from NCEP. The ensemble consists of seven integrations starting form last seven consecutive days in or Oct. Lower boundary conditions:Over the tropical Pacific region, the SSTA used in IAP9L-AGCM is the linear combination of observed SSTA in initial month and SSTA forecasted by IAP ENSO prediction system： (SSTA)t=(t) [(SSTA)to]Obs+ [1-(t)][ (SSTA)Fcst]t Here, (t) varies from 1.0 to 0.0 during the integration time Over other regions, SSTA is kept as the observed SSTA in initial month.

  20. The Large-size Ensemble ENSO Forecast System with Coupled Data Assimilation Zheng, Zhu, et. al. GRL, 2006

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