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Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia February 22, 2013

Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia February 22, 2013. Grains and Oilseeds Outlook “Evolution of the 2012 Drought and Its Impacts”. Brad Rippey USDA Meteorologist Washington, D.C. U.S. Summer Average Temperature, 1895-2012. 2002-present.

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Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia February 22, 2013

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  1. Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia February 22, 2013 Grains and Oilseeds Outlook “Evolution of the 2012 Drought and Its Impacts” Brad Rippey USDA Meteorologist Washington, D.C.

  2. U.S. Summer Average Temperature, 1895-2012 2002-present 1931-1937 1988 2009 2004 1992

  3. VOLATILE, 1930-36 STABLE, 1937-69 1964 1948 1954 1947

  4. VOLATILE 1970-95 STABLE 1996-2008 2009 2004 2004 1994 1994 1992 1992 2002 2002 1979 1979 2012 1995 1972 1995 1972 1993 1993 1980 1980 1988 1983 1988 1983 1974 1970 1970 1974

  5. U.S. Corn Planting Progress, 1995-2012 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006 1996, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2011 2010 1995 2012

  6. Jul. 24, 2012: USDM record with 63.86% of CONUS in drought.

  7. Sep. 25, 2012: USDM record with 65.45% of CONUS in drought.

  8. Feb. 19, 2013: 55.82% of CONUS in drought.

  9. 2012 U.S. Corn Yield Forecast(Bushels / Acre) * * * * * Source: USDA * Based on field surveys

  10. 2012 U.S. Soybean Yield Forecast(Bushels / Acre) * * * * * Source: USDA * Based on field surveys

  11. Percent Texas Cotton Abandonment1980-2012 2011 1998 2006 1992 1986

  12. Annual Precipitation, Contiguous U.S. 1895-2012 1976 1988 1963 Dust Bowl 1950s Driest Year Since 1988

  13. Annual Temperature, Contiguous U.S. 1895-2012 Hottest Year on Record

  14. 2004 2012 Index Weighting: Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

  15. Winter Wheat ConditionsJanuary 27, 2013 StateVPPFGEX Oklahoma 30 39 26 5 0 Kansas 14 25 41 19 1 Nebraska 15 35 42 8 0 S. Dakota 16 50 31 3 0 Montana 2 7 50 39 2 Illinois 0 3 30 60 7 ________________________________________ Rangeland and Pasture, Very Poor to Poor: Kansas, 85%; Oklahoma, 82%

  16. Texas Winter Wheat ConditionsFebruary 17, 2013 StateVPPFGEX Texas 23 26 37 13 1 ________________________________________ Rangeland and Pasture, Very Poor to Poor: Texas, 53%; Florida, 50%; Arizona, 44%

  17. Percent U.S. Winter Wheat Abandonment1909-2012 1917 1933 1935 2002 1951 1989 1928 1955

  18. Iowa in Drought in Mid-Februaryand Iowa Corn Yield (Divided by Two)

  19. Thank you! • Contact info - e-mail: brippey@oce.usda.gov - phone: (202) 720-2397

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