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Nigeria. Public Policy. The “loyalty Pyramid”. Top- down policymaking From president or military Based on patron-clientelism Only those on the pyramid have access to power and wealth “ Kaduna Mafia”, “ Abacha´s Boys ” Breaking the cycle … Communalism of pre-colonial times.
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Nigeria PublicPolicy
The “loyalty Pyramid” • Top-downpolicymaking • Frompresidentormilitary • Basedonpatron-clientelism • Onlythoseonthepyramidhaveaccesstopower and wealth • “Kaduna Mafia”, “Abacha´sBoys” • Breakingthecycle… • Communalism of pre-colonial times
Economic issues • Oil : strengthorweakness? • Profitsdisappeared • Rentierstate in debt • South skeptical of “revenuesharing” idea w/ north • Unrest in theNiger delta area - violence • MostNigeriansdependenton informal economy – don’tprofitfromoil
“Structuraladjustment” • UnderBabangidaafter 80s oil crisis • DependentonWorld Bank and IMF fordebtrelief • Attempttodiversify, using “shock treatment” • Results: • Privateeconomy has notsignificantlyimproved • Nationaldebtstillanissue
“Federal character” • Purpose • Recognizingallethnicities, religions • Forumfordemocracy • Resultstoday • More problemsthansolutions – distrust, sectionalism • “true federalism” • Devolution of authoritytoregions • Regions in control of theirownresources – OIL?
democratization • Since 1999… • Privatization of publicenterprises • Betterpayforpublicemployees (reduce bribes?) • Return of stolenfundsbyAbacha • Growingfinancial reserves (oilpriceincreases) • Somechecks and balances • RejectingObasanjo’s try for a 3rd term • Someindependence of thecourts • In Abubakarrunningforpresidency
More… • Revival of civil society • Sinceend of military rule, 2007 • Independent media • Reportingon 2007 electionfraud • Peacefulsuccession of power in 2007 • ObasanjotoYar’Adua (civiliantocivilian) • Improving FREEDOM HOUSE scores • Because of peacefulelection, scoredfrom “not free” to “party free”
conclusion • Is Nigeria improving? • YES • A few free elections in a row • Non-militaryleaders • 2007 electionslightlybetterthantheprevious • NO • Stillrampantelectionfraud • Sectionalviolence • No dramaticimprovement