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Southwest/West Central Service Cooperative Annual Board Conference: Minnesota’s Future

Southwest/West Central Service Cooperative Annual Board Conference: Minnesota’s Future. Jay Kiedrowski, Senior Fellow Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs July 16, 2009. Introduction. Trends: Demographics, Social, & Economic MN Department of Management and Budget

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Southwest/West Central Service Cooperative Annual Board Conference: Minnesota’s Future

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  1. Southwest/West Central Service Cooperative Annual Board Conference:Minnesota’s Future Jay Kiedrowski, Senior Fellow Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs July 16, 2009

  2. Introduction • Trends: Demographics, Social, & Economic MN Department of Management and Budget MN Trends Budget Study Commission Wilder Foundation Twin Cities Compass Other • Implications • Discussion

  3. Demographics .

  4. Demographics

  5. Demographics

  6. Demographics

  7. Social

  8. Social

  9. Economic

  10. Economic Total Taxes Per Capita Personal Income

  11. Economics

  12. Economics

  13. Economics MN State Budget 2010-2011 (in billions) Current Revenue $30.6 Ongoing Spending 37.0 Structural Gap $(6.4) One-time Stimulus 1.8 Reported Gap $(4.6) Real Shortfall (21)%

  14. Jay Kiedrowski John Gunyou Peggy Ingison Pam Wheelock Former Finance CommissionersReaction to Deficit

  15. Economics The Budget Stalemate

  16. Economics

  17. Economics

  18. Economics MN State Budget 2010-2011 (in billions) Current Revenue $30.6 Ongoing Spending 37.0 Structural Gap $(6.4) One-time Stimulus 1.8 Reported Gap $(4.6) Real Shortfall (21)%

  19. Jay Kiedrowski John Gunyou Peggy Ingison Pam Wheelock Former Finance CommissionersReaction to Deficit

  20. Economics The Budget Stalemate

  21. Economics

  22. Economics

  23. Economics

  24. Economics * Including Inflation & Mild Recovery

  25. Implications • A Similar Minnesota in the Future Healthy Environment Less Crime Reduced Traffic Fatalities Highly Educated High Voter Turnout Rich Cultural Arts Supportive Nonprofits

  26. Implications • A Different Minnesota in the Future Older, More Diverse Fewer Wage Earners Proportionately Less Well Educated Higher Tuition for College More Unemployment Greater Income Disparity Housing Less Attainable More Congestion

  27. Implications • Different State Finances in the Future More Revenue Volatility Need Larger Fund Balance Revenues Unlikely to Rebound Fully A Revenue-Expense Imbalance Need Tax Increase and Reform Need Expenditure Decrease and Reform Healthcare Rethinking Required Property Tax Relief Changes

  28. Questions and Comments

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