230 likes | 315 Views
Challenges and Opportunities for Ocean Carriers and Our Customers Brian Moore – Sales Director Maersk Line North America. Industry is in a state of transformation. Different customers, different needs What is the difference that matters ? Dialogue required Who is talking?
E N D
Challenges and Opportunities for Ocean Carriers and Our CustomersBrian Moore – Sales DirectorMaersk Line North America
Industry is in a state of transformation • Different customers, different needs • What is the difference that matters? • Dialogue required • Who is talking? • What are we talking about? • Everyone plays a vital role • How do we ensure the transformation creates value?
Challenges • Economic State • Financial • Operational • Commercial
Global container demand is revised down, but the forecast for 2013 remains more positive than 2012 • The economic outlook is somewhat more negative than was originally forecast • The recession in Europe and the slowness in US recovery is starting to affect trade with Asia • Global container demand is expected to: • Grow by 5.9% in 2012 and by 7.5% in 2013, according to Clarkson • Grow by 3.4% in 2012 and by 4.8% in 2013, according to Drewry Global Container Demand Growth Source: Drewry Q2 2012 Report
Capacity is growing at a slower rate, despite larger vessels coming on line • Fleet growth is slowing but the size of vessels being order is increasing • Carriers see larger ships as key to profitability • Larger ships provide greater fuel efficiency and are far less costly to operate on a per slot basis
Supply/Demand index declines further • Drewry’s projections of the supply/demand index is tending slightly downwards for 2012 and 2013 as demand growth is expected to be lower than effective capacity growth • Clarkson’s estimated development path is slightly more optimistic, although the level is generally lower Source: Drewry, Clarkson
Financial Challenges Generally acceptable margin Industry w. avg.: 1% Note: TEU w. avg. of MLB, CMA CGM, APL, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO, Hanjin, OOCL, MOL, NYK, NYK, Zim, HMM, CSCL, CSAV, Yang Ming and Wan Hai. Source: Company reports, Maersk Line analyses and estimates
Results have been volatile USD bln
Fuel costs have increased while rates have declined… Source: Bunker, Inflation and Rate indices 2005-2011 (Clarkson, CCFI)
….and have been volatile Source: UBM Estimates
Investments have slowed as a result Note: Cashflow is sum of ML, APL, Hapag-Lloyd, Hanjin, CMA CGM, Zim, HMM, CSCL, COSCO, NYK, MOL, OOCL, CSAV and K Line. Source: Company reports, Maersk Line analyses and estimates
Operational Challenges • Forecasting • Booking falldowns / no shows • Inland Deliveries (Special Terms) • Equipment imbalances • VSAs • Regulatory
Commercial Challenges and Questions • Commoditization (?) • Inventory Management, Slow Steaming and Idling Vessels • Spot vs. Annual rate • Network Stress • Direct vs Trans-shipment • Fragmented Market • Contracts
Scrapping, slowsteaming and idling has absorbed some of the excess capacity Source: Alphaliner and internal calculations. Data for 2012 Q4 is forecast
Reliability is increasing and Maersk Line continues to lead the way • Maersk Line has achieved number 1 ranking in 10 of the last 11 quarters MaerskLine as #1, keeping a difference of 16 %-points vs. all carriers’ score and a difference of 13 %-points vs Top20 carriers Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants - Carrier Performance Insight Q3 2012 . Evaluation of 2Q2012
Innovation and Investment Triple Es • Economies of scale • Energy efficiency • Environmentally improved
Industry Restructuring? Top 20 Carriers Share of Capacity
Contracting – Issues to Consider • Mutually Sustainable • Mutually understood requirements (mqc/52?) • Consequence of non-compliance • Opportunistic • Boilerplates • Scorecards • Duration
Short-term/ Spot contracts • Susceptible to market rate volatility. • More administrative work required for frequent contract renegotiation. • More susceptible to service instability • Able to negotiate rates aligned with current market rates • Greater flexibility to change service based on performance.
Long-term contracts • Rate and service level certainty & stability. • May create better understanding of business needs and lead to improved business performance. • Reduces administrative work associated with contract renegotiation. • May miss short-term rate savings. • Less flexibility for changing carriers during contract term.
LT Contracting options Certainty of future rates Description Duration Fixed rate High • Single rate for the duration of the contract • All periods (e.g. years) are priced • 2-3 years inlength Period1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period5 Fixed schedule • Specific rates for each period of the contract are set upfront, at the start of the contract • All periodsare priced • 2-3 years in length Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Straight collar* High rate • Initial rate set for period1 upfront • Rates after period1 are adjusted based on external index, but can only move within a predetermined band • Only 1stperiod is explicitly priced • 2-5 years in length Low rate Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Semi-floating rate • Initial rate is negotiated upfront • Rates after period1 are based on a portion of the annual rate changes in an index (e.g. 70% of the change in the index) • Only 1stperiod is explicitly priced • 2-5 years in length Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Indexed rate changes Certainty of following the market • Initial rate set for period1 • Rates after period 1 are adjusted based on external index • Only 1st periodis explicitly priced • 2-5 years in length Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5