Characterizing and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

1. Characterizing and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Douglas Hilderbrand Uncertainty Forecasting Program Manager June 18 2008

2. Background“No forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty” ---NRC Report • In response to the National Research Council’s “Completing the Forecast” Report, NOAA is taking a leadership role within the Weather Enterprise for providing products that effectively communicate forecast uncertainty information • AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty Forecasting (ACUF) • NOAA Forecast Uncertainty Steering Team (NFUSE) • National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

3. ACUF • Vision: Enterprise-wide partnership that generates and communicates forecast uncertainty information meeting Nation’s needs for informed decisions: • protecting life and property • supporting national defense and homeland security • enhancing the economy • meeting specific needs of partners, users, and customers • Mission: Develop Enterprise-wide goals and roadmap for providing forecast uncertainty information, building off NRC recommendations • Deliverable: An Enterprise implementation (action) plan for forecast uncertainty that has been reviewed and coordinated with partners

4. ACUF Five Working Groups • Needs, opportunities, and benefits of providing hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty products and services to the Nation • Why is uncertainty information important? • Enterprise Goals for forecast uncertainty products and services • Specifics – What will Nation get and how good will it be? • Description of what is needed to meet goals and reach vision • Solutions: What is needed to do this? • Suggested roles and responsibilities of enterprise partners • Who should do what and with who? • Enterprise-wide Roadmap • How will all the pieces fit together?

5. ACUF Participation

6. NFUSE • Working Group within NOAA advancing forecast uncertainty initiatives through the newly formed program • Merging science & technology with social sciences • Improving current products and services • Leading national-scale project initiatives • NDFD uncertainty products • Probabilistic “Warn-on-Forecast” • Probabilistic QPF

7. Forecasting UncertaintyNot re-inventing the wheel • NOAA is already providing uncertainty information…but we can do more…do it better…and get the Weather Enterprise and user communities more involved… • Over 100 different products (operational, experimental, under development) provide uncertainty information…including: • Ensemble models (e.g., SREF, GEFS, NAEFS, CFS, wave, wind, streamflow) • National Center forecast products (e.g., HPC, SPC, CPC, TPC) • NDFD (e.g., POP12), MOS products (e.g., POP, Prob. of Thunderstorm) • Public Weather Products (e.g., AFD, point-and-click forecast pages) • AHPS probabilistic products (e.g., Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels) • Local WFO products (e.g., Hazardous Weather Outlook)

8. What might the futurelook like? Probabilistic “Warn-on-Forecast”

9. What might the futurelook like? Precipitation Exceedance Probabilities

10. What might the futurelook like? NDFD Uncertainty Products

11. Challenges • Convincing the skeptics… • Funding shortcomings • Multiple end-users…multiple formats…multiple levels of complexity • Training/outreach is essential…this is a paradigm shift!