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CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCE MODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM (STARMAP)

CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCE MODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM (STARMAP). N. SCOTT URQUHART SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY. TODAY. EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA) CSU’s RESPONSE = STARMAP

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CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCE MODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM (STARMAP)

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  1. CSU’s EPA-FUNDEDPROGRAM ONSPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCEMODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM (STARMAP) N. SCOTT URQUHART SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

  2. TODAY • EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA) • CSU’s RESPONSE = STARMAP • EXPANSION ON PROJECT #4 • = LEARNING MATERIALS • EXAMPLES OF TECHNIQUES

  3. EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) • CONTENT REQUIREMENTS • RESEARCH IN STATISTICS • DIRECTED TOWARD USING, IN PART, DATA GATHERED BY PROBABILITY SURVEYS OF THE “EMAP-SORT.” • TRAINING OF “FUTURE GENERATIONS” OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS • OUTREACH TO THE STATES and TRIBES • ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS

  4. EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) - continued • MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENT • “… EACH OF THE TWO PROGRAMS ESTABLISHED WILL INVOLVE COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AT MULTIPLE, GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSE SITES.” • CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN TWO PROGRAMS • CSU and OSU SUBMITTED A PAIR OF COORDINATED PROPOSALS

  5. EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) - continued III • THE TWO PROGRAMS: • DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED SURVEY METHODOLOGY - @ OSU • SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING, INCORPORATING HIERARCHICAL SURVEY DESIGN, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELING - @ CSU • CHECK ON THE RFA @ • http://es.epa.gov/ncerqa/rfa/aquastat01.html

  6. RESPONSE to RFA from CSU • INSTITUTIONS: • COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY • STATISTICS • NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB • FOREST SCIENCE • BIORESOURCE AND AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING • OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY (PROGRAM 1, too) • SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATER RESEARCH PROJECT • WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, INC

  7. WHO IS INVOLVED? • Jay Breidt • Richard Davis • Jennifer Hoeting • Hari Iyer • Scott Urquhart • Dave Theobald - Natural Resources Ecology Lab • Robin Reich - Forest Science • Jim Loftis - Bioresources Engineering • Collaborators at OSU, SCCWRP, WQTI

  8. CSU PROPOSAL - APPROACH • TAKE EXISTING SETS OF • PROBABILITY & • NON-PROBABILITY DATA • START WORKING WITH THE DATA WITH A PERSPECTIVE OF DRAWING INFERENCES • IDENTIFY ISSUES WE DON’T KNOW HOW TO HANDLE • HAVE POST-DOCS AND PRE-DOCTORAL STUDENTS CONDUCT RESEARCH ON THESE TOPICS

  9. WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT“AQUATIC RESOURCES”? • THEY ARE THINGS LIKE • STREAMS • RIVERS • WETLANDS • LAKES & PONDS • ESTUARIES • PRAIRIE POTHOLES • NEAR COASTAL OCEANIC WATERS

  10. WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?CONTINUED • FOR MOST AQUATIC RESOURCES, • THERE ARE MANY “SMALL” ONES • PROGRESSIVELY FEWER AS THEY GET BIGGER • INTEREST, BIOLOGICAL & SOCIETAL, TENDS TO STAY CONSTANT OR EVEN INCREASE WITH SIZE • SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING WOULD SELECT MOSTLY “SMALL” ONES, FEW “BIG” ONES. • IMPLICATION: • UNEQUAL PROBABILITY SAMPLING

  11. WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?CONTINUED II • SPATIAL STATISTICS TENDS TO FOCUS ON TWO-DIMENSIONAL SPACE • STREAMS AND RIVERS ESSENTIALLY AMOUNT TO ONE-DIMENSIONAL OBJECTS IN TWO-SPACE • BUT MUCH LANDSCAPE INFORMATION IS COMPLETE COVERAGE IN TWO-SPACE • CHALLENGE: • MERGE THESE PERSPECTIVES

  12. FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES • STATES AND TRIBES MUST REPORT ON THE CONDITION OF ALL “WATERS” UNDER THEIR JURISTICTION • A REQUIREMENT OF SECTION 305b OF THE CLEAN WATER ACT • RESULTS IN BIANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS • STARTING IN 2002 THE RECOMMENDED STANDARDS WILL CHANGE TO BEING BASED ON PROBABILITY SAMPLING • OUTREACH PROJECT OPPORTUNITY!

  13. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT • 1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA • 2. LOCAL INFERENCE • 3. DEVELOPING AQUATIC INDICATORS • 4. OUTREACH • 5. ADMINISTRATION/COORDINATION

  14. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED • 1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA • FROM SURVEYS TO REMOTELY SENSED • POSSIBLY INCLUDING INFORMATION FROM “HAND-PICKED”SITES • JENNIFER HOETING • DAVIS, BREIDT, REICH, STEVENS (OSU), WEISBERG (SCCWRP), LEECASTER (INL)

  15. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED • 2. LOCAL INFERENCE • SMALL AREA EST’M + DECONVOLUTION • JAY BREIDT • DAVIS, HOETING, GITELMAN (OSU)

  16. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED II • 3. AQUATIC INDICATORS • DEVELOPING DATA TO USE IN SPATIAL ANALYSES • LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY • REGIONAL TAXONOMIC RICHNESS • DAVE THEOBALD, NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB • URQUHART, RITTER (SCCWRP)

  17. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED III • OUTREACH • “PROPOSALS SHOULD SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS THE EXTENSION OF EXPERTISE ON DESIGN AND ANALYSIS TO STATES AND TRIBES” • HARI IYER & NSU PREPARED THIS PART OF THE CSU RESPONSE • DAVIS, REICH, • JIM LOFTIS (BIORESOURCES ENGINEERING), • STEPHEN JOHNSON (WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY)

  18. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED III • 5. ADMINISTRATION • INTEGRATION AND COORDINATION • URQUHART & DAVIS • STEVENS (OSU) • AQUATIC SUPPORT: HERLIHY & HUGHES (OSU)

  19. CSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESAPPROXIMATE ANNUAL LEVELS • POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS 2.5 • DOCTORAL STUDENTS 2 • FACULTY TIME ~ 1 FTE (12M) • OTHER • SUBCONTRACT TO OSU ~ $120K • COMPUTING EQUIPMENT - ONE TIME =$20K • SUPPORT/TRAVEL AMPLE

  20. OSU COMPANION PROPOSAL • SIMILARILY STRUCTURED • MAJOR DIFFERENCE = FOCUS • DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED • OSU SUBCONTRACT TO CSU THE SAME SCALE AS CSU SUBCONTRACT TO OSU • BOTH PROGRAMS HAVE OTHER SUBCONTRACTORS THE FIRST YEAR

  21. DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE • DEFINE THE POPULATION OF INTEREST • CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF IT • CAREFULLY DEFINE THE SAMPLING FRAME • VARIABLE PROBABILITY SELECTION OF SITES, BUT WITH SPATIAL BALANCE • CAREFULLY DEFINE RESPONSES TO BE EVALUATED • TRAIN FIELD CREWS WELL • MANAGE DATA WITH CARE AND AN “AUDIT TRAIL” • LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES, THROUGHOUT

  22. DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVECONTINUED • IF DISCIPLINES LACK TOOLS, SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THEM • STATISTICS INCLUDED • EXAMPLE: EXTEND CONCEPTS OF SAMPLING FROM FINITE POPULATION TO SPATIALLY CONTINUOUS POPULATIONS • NATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR STATISTICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT (~ $1M/YEAR) • UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PAST 5 YEARS • NOW TO BE AT UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO • TWO PROGRAMS UNDER DISCUSSION HERE

  23. FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESCONTINUED • PROJECT # 4 WILL HELP • IDENTIFY NEEDED SKILLS IN THE STATES & TRIBES • DEVELOP THE NEEDED SKILLS • IF POSSIBLE, WE HOPE TO TRANSMIT THE LEARNING MATERIALS IN WEB-COMPATIBLE DOCUMENTS • RECORDED ON A CD ROM USABLE AT ANY REMOTE SITE

  24. MORE ON LEARNING TOOLS • AN EXPANSION ON PROJECT 4:

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