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Peak oil, climate change and transition towns

James Samuel National Facilitator Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa www.transitiontowns.org.nz. Peak oil, climate change and transition towns. Agenda. Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change (brief) ‏ Responses at different levels global, national, local, personal

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Peak oil, climate change and transition towns

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  1. James Samuel National Facilitator Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa www.transitiontowns.org.nz Peak oil, climate change and transition towns

  2. Agenda • Peak Oil and its effects • Climate Change (brief)‏ • Responses at different levels • global, national, local, personal • PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” • What is a transition town • Examples and achievements so far • Q&A discussion

  3. Peak Oil – fields, regions, world • we’ll never “run out” of oil • we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil • oil underpins • industrial development • agriculture • economics • population • about ½ way through it… • it’s going to decline

  4. Peak Oil – discovery Before you extract it, you have to find it

  5. Peak Oil – official numbers • EIA - Energy Information Administration • IEA - International Energy Agency

  6. Peak Oil – what’s it like? • Terminal decline • Demand destruction • Examples: • 1990s: North Korea • 1990s: Cuba • 2000: UK fuel crisis • Now: Poor countries

  7. Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor)‏ • Asia • Nepal • Pakistan • Bangladesh • Sri Lanka • Philippines • China • India • Vietnam • Africa • Uganda • Zimbabwe • Ghana • Nigeria • Senegal • Kenya • Gambia • Philippines • Americas • Argentina • Nicaragua • Chile • Costa Rica • Dominican Republic • Middle East • Iraq • Iran

  8. Climate Changethe end of the debate The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temp's since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Upsala Glacier, Argentina

  9. Climate Changeweather extremes

  10. Fossil Fuels, Carbon, and Economic Growth

  11. What can be done? • Global • Oil Depletion Protocol • Contraction and Convergence • Kyoto • National • TEQs (energy rationing)‏ • Community • Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural • Personal • “The work that reconnects” • Lessons from addiction counselling

  12. Can we respond? • Going up the energy slope, we used • ingenuity • creativity • adaptability • cooperation • Going back down… • if we’re early enough • if we’re cooperative • the future could be a whole lot better…

  13. What’s stopping us? • Myths of today • Technology will solve all our problems • There is no alternative • Civilisation is the pinnacle of human achievement • Living standards are rising • New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner • Humans are selfish and greedy by nature • The market will solve it • If our water comes from a tap, and our food comes from a supermarket • We will defend the systems which sustain us

  14. Where are we going? Techno-Fantasy Peak Energy? Green-Tech Stability • - Energy & Resource Use • - Population • - Pollution Industrial Ascent Creative Descent (Permaculture)‏ Earth stewardship Pre-industrial culture Post Mad Max Collapse Historical Time Future Time Industrial Revolution BabyBoom Great Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrsBP

  15. Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? 43 Towns at last count

  16. How are they organising? Transition Model • Understanding: • PO + CC = The end of “business as usual” • Adaptability, Creativity • NOW • 7 Buts • 12 Steps • Transition Network

  17. Peak Oil & Climate Change • Climate Change mitigations must: • reduce emissions (reduce oil usage)‏ • Peak Oil mitigations must: • build local resilience • Which means doing it closer to home - re-localisation • consumption • production • work • play

  18. Our choice… • We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future, whether we want to or not. • Far better to ride that wave rather be engulfed by it.

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