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S & T Committee. Digital Forecast Era Challenges March, 2003. Purpose. Invite S&T Committee participation and leadership in defining the future (post-IOC) scientific and technological direction of IFPS and NDFD. Desired Outcomes.
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S & T Committee Digital Forecast Era Challenges March, 2003
Purpose • Invite S&T Committee participation and leadership in defining the future (post-IOC) scientific and technological direction of IFPS and NDFD.
Desired Outcomes • Agreement on Scope and Content of technical issues to be addressed • Seminal Science Issues • Technology Issues • Formation of an IFP Science Steering Team • To guide scientific inquiry • Recommend solutions • Work with External Science Review Group • Formation of a Technology Steering Team
Some Science Issues • NDFD does not currently support probabilistic forecasts • Numerical guidance to forecasters needs to be improved • Geophysically consistent grid modification of NDFD elements needs to be ensured • Accuracy and skill of gridded forecasts not being adequately assessed • NDFD does not contain a vertical coordinate • Can forecasters add value to model output at meso- and finer scales?
Some Technology Issues • Provide Strategic direction (~5 years) to future technology • How to integrate other information (radar, satellite, etc) into the IFP process for short range forecasting • How to best access information in the full resolution model suite • How to make sure solutions are scalable and extensible considering current and future IT architecture What are the Strategic Alternatives we need to address?
Now What Do We Do? • Develop technological and scientific roadmap for IFPS • Establish prioritized objectives • Establish structure for leading resolution of scientific and technological issues • Science Steering team • Technology Steering Team • Integrate into top level IFPS Program Plan
Program ManagementConcept Corporate Board AA External Science Review Group (ESRG) S&T Committee OST – Program Mgmt Science Steering Team (SST) Technology Steering Team (TST) PPD SEC MDL
Science Steering TeamProposed Charter • Vision • To define and refine the science issues that are raisedby IFP operations and to propose solutions. • Structure • A team that reports to the S&T committee • Science oriented, with direct knowledge of IFPimpacts to operations and services • Membership • 1-2 people from each Region, NCEP • 1 representative from each development lab • Representative from NWSHQ
Science Steering Team Proposed Charter • Roles and responsibilities • Take ownership of science issues • Define/Refine issues addressed • Explore alternatives to solving • Recommend solutions • Identify technical/operational limitations • Produce IFPS “next steps” white paper • Reporting • Monthly status reports to the S&T committee • Outcomes • Solutions get integrated into STIP • Solutions get integrated into NOAA Weather and Water PPBS Plan
Technology Steering TeamProposed Charter • Vision • To define and refine the technological issues that are raised and to propose solutions. • Structure • A team that reports to the S&T committee • Technology oriented, with direct knowledge of impacts to operations and services • Membership • 1-2 people from each Region and NCEP • 1 representative from each development lab • Representatives from NWSHQ
Technology Steering TeamProposed Charter • Roles and responsibilities • Take ownership of technological issues • Define/Refine issues addressed • Explore alternatives to solving • Recommend solutions • Identify technical/operational limitations • Reporting • Monthly status reports to the S&T committee
Formation of IFPS External Science Review Group • Structure • Non-NOAA group that reviews IFPS plans and advises S&T committee • Membership • 3-5 nationally known science leaders • Academic and research backgrounds • Roles and responsibilities • Review SST recommendations • Provide input on possible alternative solutions • Reporting • Quarterly review of IFPS program plans • Question – DOC rules for setting up such a group? • Should it be formal or informal
Science Issues NDFD does not currently support probabilistic forecasts • The best ways to portray forecast information to day 7 • Discussion points • MOS • Ensembles • Communicating uncertainty
Science Issues Numerical guidance to forecasters needs to be improved • Bias correction of NWP • Interpolation of coarse resolution guidance grids to higher resolution IFPS/NDFD grids
Science IssuesGeophysically consistent grid modification of NDFD elements needs to be ensured • Do we have tools to ensure consistent surface elements? • Can forecasters consistently add value at meso- and finer scales?
Science Issues Accuracy and skill of gridded forecasts not being adequately assessed • Forecasters cannot assess their skill on daily basis • Organizationally we cannot track our skill
Science Issues NDFD does not contain a vertical coordinate • Required for Aviation Services • Preliminary attempts made • None successful
Technology IssuesHow to integrate other information (radar, satellite, etc) into the IFP process for short range forecasting • Lack of tools for nowcasting and short term forecasting • Lack of data needed for nowcasting and short term forecasting • Radar • Satellite • Surface observations • How will AWIPS evolve to meet these needs?
Technology Issues How to best access information in the full resolution model suite • Lack of bandwidth to send full resolution NWP output to WFOs • Lack of computer resources to handle larger volume of data at WFOs • Are bandwidth and CPU resources the best solution to expanding information at WFOs
Technology Issues • Bigger than IFPS • How do we move forward with technology in the digital forecast era?