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Scanning for Planning

Scanning for Planning. SLA 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market Consultant. Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant . Trend Spotting started here for OCLC. Why Do this? . Western Union Personal computer Amazoogle, YaBay, Skating where the puck will be.

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Scanning for Planning

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  1. Scanning for Planning SLA 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market Consultant Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant

  2. Trend Spotting started here for OCLC

  3. Why Do this? • Western Union • Personal computer • Amazoogle, YaBay, • Skating where the puck will be

  4. Traditional Planning • Extrapolates from the past/present • Focus is on industry situation • Solving current problems • No holistic view of external factors

  5. Futuring: 4 Questions • Can we predict the future? • Can we know the future? • Can we control the future? • Can we influence the future? Sometimes NO NO YES

  6. The Four Types of Change Given Chosen

  7. Prediction Physical evidence Strong assumptions Unitary phenomenon Higher quality inferences Forecasting Intangible evidence Weak assumptions Multiple possibilities Lower quality inferences Prediction and Forecasting

  8. Forecasts - Two Approaches Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting Short-term horizon Long-term horizon Single domain Many domains Few factors Many factors Focus on continuity Focus on discontinuity Hide uncertainty Reveal uncertainty Single forecast Alternative forecasts Quantitative techniques Qualitative techniques

  9. Likely and alternative futures Preferred Futures Vision Scanning for trends Identify key forces Mission Scenarios enhance creativity in visioning Scenario matrix narratives Goals Generation of new strategies Evaluation of new andexisting strategies Are strategies robust? Do they work in most or all scenarios? Do strategies align with vision, mission and goals? Strategic priorities and plan of action Diagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com

  10. What is Environmental Scanning? • “Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions.” Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.” Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.

  11. Content of an Environmental Scan • STEEP • Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes • PEST(LE) • Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental) • SETRLL • Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries • Whatever!

  12. Trend Spotting It’s about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding

  13. The 3 Main Challenges • Management and corporate culture • They’re just not that into trends • Resources • Time, funds, attention • Understanding and applying trends • Thinking BIG and…so what?

  14. Management and corporate culture

  15. Resources • Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares I’m retiring…

  16. Understanding and Applying Trends • Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL

  17. *Coined by Lorcan Dempsey, OCLC VP of Research The Amazoogle* Effect • Comprehensive • Accessible • Immediate gratification • Market-of-One

  18. Why haven’t you ever used the online library Web site?

  19. …is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines? Q1205

  20. The Internet of Things • “spimes” & “blogjets”

  21. “I can’t understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I’m frightened of the old ones.” John Cage

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